Negative TC count deviations from B/S (besides leaving and going to the bar)

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

OK if I'm min betting a shoe that goes into a very low TC and don't want to wong out what are a few deviations from basic strategy?

Since I don't keep track of sevens through nines I've found some success at staying on stiff hands. Not all stiff hands but some.

Take a TC of -5 in deep penetration. Dealer shows ten and I've got a stiff like 14 through 16. My feeling is that in a low TC the dealer's high cards (nine and ten) tend to mildly mimic stiff hands.

While the dealer is near certain to get a host of low cards including his hole care I kind of feel like staying on 16 against dealers ten up card. Sometimes i do and sometimes i don't. Reasoning?

With a lot of low cards in the deck the dealer has either a neutral seven through nine or a low card. Assuming a low card is in the hole this means the dealer is gonna have to hit a few times in order to arrive at a pat hand or bust.

So to that extent dealers up card of ten mildly resembles a six in a high TC. Not nearly as good for the player as the dealers stiff hand in a high TC, but at least a little better than dealer showing eight or nine.

I might hit my twelve against dealers six up card during those occasions too.

I suspect though that our more learned resources here will instead advise me to go back to the buffet. Then wong in later...

 

[jack.jackson]

OK if I'm min betting a shoe that goes into a very low TC and don't want to wong out what are a few deviations from basic strategy?

Besides the obvious, of the more negative the count is, the more deviations we will have. Here I believe are the the most important in a moderate negative count.
Doubles:
Hit 11vs9,X,A
Hit 10vs9,8
Hit9vs2,3,4
SA8vs6
SA7vs2,3
HA6vs2,3
HA5vs4
HA3vs4,5
HA2vs5,6

HvsS:
H12vs4-6
H13vs2-4
H14vs2

SplitsAS
Stay99vs2,3
Hit66vs2,3
Hit33vs2
Hit22vs2

Since I don't keep track of sevens through nines I've found some success at staying on stiff hands. Not all stiff hands but some.

Take a TC of -5 in deep penetration. Dealer shows ten and I've got a stiff like 14 through 16. My feeling is that in a low TC the dealer's high cards (nine and ten) tend to mildly mimic stiff hands.

Trust me, Ive thought this way before myself! You must train yourself to think completely the opposite. Think of in a way as "I just know im gonna get that 5 or 6!Pure and simple!
Tip: Its a better PLAY to hit 16vs6, than it is to stay on 13vs ten.

While the dealer is near certain to get a host of low cards including his hole care I kind of feel like staying on 16 against dealers ten up card. Sometimes i do and sometimes i don't. Reasoning?

Point blank:hit it, without hesitation! Anytime the RC is negative......

With a lot of low cards in the deck the dealer has either a neutral seven through nine or a low card. Assuming a low card is in the hole this means the dealer is gonna have to hit a few times in order to arrive at a pat hand or bust.

So to that extent dealers up card of ten mildly resembles a six in a high TC. Not nearly as good for the player as the dealers stiff hand in a high TC, but at least a little better than dealer showing eight or nine.

I might hit my twelve against dealers six up card during those occasions too.

If dealer Hits S17 can make a small difference in standind vs drawing. If dealear stays on S17 you should be a little more apt to hit this hand.

I suspect though that our more learned resources here will instead advise me to go back to the buffet. Then wong in later...

That just depends how hungry I am and whats on the menu.

 

[aslan]

Doubles:
Hit 11vs9,X,A
Hit 10vs9,8
Hit9vs2,3,4
SA8vs6
SA7vs2,3
HA6vs2,3
HA5vs4
HA3vs4,5
HA2vs5,6

Does S in SA mean Stand or Soft? Does H in HA mean Hard or Hit?

 

[jack.jackson]

Does S in SA mean Stand or Soft? Does H in HA mean Hard or Hit?

Sorry for the confusion. S=stand H=hit

 

[aslan]

Jack,

I use KO with IRC of -4. Would moderate negative count mean somewhere around -10? Where can I learn more about these negative indices?

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Good discussion. Still think the buffet lunch is the best way to go though.

Maybe the reason i sometimes play out low counts is that my computer model has typically had some big wins on them. Like forty grand games with largely low count shoes.

My question mark about hitting the hard sixteen against dealers ten up (in a low count) is that the dealer is very likely to have to hit multiple times. Might get three twos in the process and then get a seven and bust. The burden thus being on the dealer.

I will hit the sixteen every time (against ten) on the neutral deck without hesitation. Stay when the count goes high. However when the count goes low I'm sometimes not so quick at hitting the sixteen. Ditto when dealer shows seven up card in low counts.

I want him to EARN that pat hand. Preferring not to die by my own sword. Again it's kind of a mute point. I usually hit the buffet or talk to the largest breasted ploppie. That's a winning hand every time...

 

[EasyRhino]

I think the jugs are the best bet, since standing on that 16v10 would be the wrong play in a negative count.

Look at it this way: in a negative count, the dealer is going to draw to more pat hands, regardless of what his upcard is. It makes the game a royal pain in the ass. Maybe he does have a 6 under his upcard, giving him a stiff, but since the count is negative, there's an increased chance he's going to draw a small card an win. Or maybe you see four 2's in a row. Regardless, your 16 is dead meat.

Stuff like hitting 16, and not doubling 11/10 vs high card, seems to reflect the impact of the low count on your draw card. While more conservative behavior vs 2-4 seems to represent the impact on the dealer's draw card.

Jack, still confused about SA and HA... what the hell does "HA2vs5,6" mean?

 

[jack.jackson]

Jack, still confused about SA and HA... what the hell does "HA2vs5,6" mean?[/QUOTE]

I think I inadvertantly threw a curve ball when I spelt hit in one example, but just put a H in another. I did the same thing with stand and S.

For instance "HIT"(H)your A2 vs a dealears 6) on negative counts of -4 or lower.

Hope that makes things a little clearer:fish:

 

[jack.jackson]

Jack,

I use KO with IRC of -4. Would moderate negative count mean somewhere around -10? Where can I learn more about these negative indices?

I honestly cant say for sure because of the unbalnced count(s). I know some players subtract -4 "after" one deck and some dont? But ya, from what I know -10(L1) is equal to -20(L2)=TC-5 with 4 of 6D remaining and double that with 2 of 6 remaining or (TC-10)
Hopefully somebody here can answer this question a little better than I can.
I think this is why Ive always like balanced counts better.
Its time for you to go zen, asain

 

[aslan]

Jack, still confused about SA and HA... what the hell does "HA2vs5,6" mean?

I think I inadvertantly threw a curve ball when I spelt hit in one example, but just put a H in another. I did the same thing with stand and S.

For instance "HIT"(H)your A2 vs a dealears 6) on negative counts of -4 or lower.

Hope that makes things a little clearer:fish:[/QUOTE]

I think you mean double down on A2 against a dealer 6, since you put these instructions under the heading "Doubles." Is this right?

 

[aslan]

I honestly cant say for sure because of the unbalnced count(s). I know some players subtract -4 "after" one deck and some dont? But ya, from what I know -10(L1) is equal to -20(L2)=TC-5 with 4 of 6D remaining and double that with 2 of 6 remaining or (TC-10)
Hopefully somebody here can answer this question a little better than I can.
I think this is why Ive always like balanced counts better.
Its time for you to go zen, asain

I started to go Zen, but the most common advice I got was if I am flawless at KO, it would not be smart to complicate things by going Zen or even UBZ. They advised me that it is far better to use KO without mistakes than to use Zen with mistakes from time to time, and after all, there is little difference in the cash you take home after all the smoke clears. What say thee?

 

[aslan]

OK if I'm min betting a shoe that goes into a very low TC and don't want to wong out what are a few deviations from basic strategy?

Besides the obvious, of the more negative the count is, the more deviations we will have. Here I believe are the the most important in a moderate negative count.
Doubles:
Hit 11vs9,X,A
Hit 10vs9,8
Hit9vs2,3,4
SA8vs6
SA7vs2,3
HA6vs2,3
HA5vs4
HA3vs4,5
HA2vs5,6

HvsS:
H12vs4-6
H13vs2-4
H14vs2

SplitsAS
Stay99vs2,3
Hit66vs2,3
Hit33vs2
Hit22vs2


Trust me, Ive thought this way before myself! You must train yourself to think completely the opposite. Think of in a way as "I just know im gonna get that 5 or 6!Pure and simple!
Tip: Its a better PLAY to hit 16vs6, than it is to stay on 13vs ten.

Point blank:hit it, without hesitation! Anytime the RC is negative......

If dealer Hits S17 can make a small difference in standind vs drawing. If dealear stays on S17 you should be a little more apt to hit this hand.

That just depends how hungry I am and whats on the menu.

Are these indices good for double deck?

 

[zengrifter]

Maybe the reason i sometimes play out low counts is that my computer model has typically had some big wins on them. Like forty grand games with largely low count shoe.

VOODOO ALERT!!

Just because you add some indices does NOT change the -TC EV to positive. Get out as often as humanly possible.

BTW, indices + or (-) are next to worthless for most soft and split hands. See the ZG-60 in ....

 

[EasyRhino]

BTW, indices + or (-) are next to worthless for most soft and split hands.

Due to the rarity with which they appear?

 

[jack.jackson]

I think you mean double down on A2 against a dealer 6, since you put these instructions under the heading "Doubles." Is this right?

[/QUOTE]l

Well no, systems like the victor apc, hi-opt2, A02, that have a high PE have an index for this hand(probably due ace neutral) Now im not sure if KO,Zen, or hi-lo has an index for this play or not? Probably not? In my A02 count for example you would only double this hand if the TC was -3 or higher(hit at -4 or lower)

I didnt realize at first that some systems have a index for this hand and some dont.
And yes their good DD games. And good luck with KO im glad your happy with it.

 

[sagefr0g]

Due to the rarity with which they appear?

probably more due to the fact that where you make your money is mainly hard doubledowns and blackjacks as opposed to splits and soft doubledowns.

 

[zengrifter]

Well no, systems like the victor apc, hi-opt2, A02, that have a high PE have an index for this hand(probably due ace neutral) Now im not sure if KO,Zen, or hi-lo has an index for this play or not? Probably not?

Actually, they DO - ALL the same hands. zg

 

[EasyRhino]

probably more due to the fact that where you make your money is mainly hard doubledowns and blackjacks as opposed to splits and soft doubledowns.

... due to the rarity with which they appear??

 

[jack.jackson]

Actually, they DO - ALL the same hands. zg

Okay roger that! I just noticed that theres not a index number for this hand in the zen count in the blackjacktherapy article. Probably because this is the unpublished version?

 

[Kasi]

... due to the rarity with which they appear??

Pretty much lol.