New BR nearly achieved, wondering if my 1-10 bet spread makes game beatable

[pooptarts92]

Ok so as some of you may know (due to some previous posts of mine) i've been on a disgusting losing streak and decided i needed to take a break from the game and build a 1000 unit BR, 1 unit being $5.
I must have posted this exact game 2 times so far but now that I have time to practice up I just want to make sure this is a good bet spread, and I will name off a couple reasons I myself may not like it. Keep in mind I have little understanding of EV and all the important mathematical aspects, although I am a solid player and base every single one of my decisions on the TC and not any "gut" feelings lol.

And for the record, the counting system I use is Wong Halves.

The game and its rules:
4 decks
Early Surrender vs 10 ONLY! <-- NO SURRENDER VS ACE! (it hurts when the dealer shows one)
Double on any 2 cards
DAS
Split up to 4 hands
Aces can only be split ONCE, both receive ONE CARD
BJ pays 3:2 (thank god lol)
H17
No Hole card (if it matters, this is European style if i'm not mistaken)
roughly 75% pen, even more depending on dealer (some are aware I count and actually cut deeper just for me)
Insurance pays 2 to 1
Some more info due to no hole card, when dealer does make a BJ, only ORIGINAL BET is taken.

hopefully didn't forget any.
And here is my idea for my bet spread, i will list the minor things I'm a bit sketchy about afterwards:
1-10 Bet Spread, wonging out at TC of -3
TC 0 or <0 - $5 (min)
TC1 - $5
TC2 - $10
TC3 - $15
TC4 - $20
TC5 - $25
TC6 - $30
TC7 - $35
TC8 - $40
TC9 - $45
TC10 and above - $50 (my max bet)

Now my reasons for possibly being sketchy about this spread is that a $50 bet would come out a very small percentage of the time, and I'm not sure if I should stick to this entire spread or maybe change it up. This is why I've posted it because I want to know your guys' opinions on when one's max bet should come out, and not be putting one at high risk, but also not lowering one's expectation too much. Thanks in advance, this community has been more than helpful to me over the past few months. :grin:

 

[kewljason]

I am not really that familar with a 4 deck game, but comparing to a six deck game, 75% pen, true counts of +10 would only come out about a tenth of 1 percent of the time. TC of +6 or higher would only happen about 1.5% of the time. With four deck game, these counts will happen a bit more frequetly, but not that much. For this reason I would think you need to consider having your max bet out much earlier than you proposed. I personally have my max bet out at TC of +4.

 

[pooptarts92]

I am not really that familar with a 4 deck game, but comparing to a six deck game, 75% pen, true counts of +10 would only come out about a tenth of 1 percent of the time. TC of +6 or higher would only happen about 1.5% of the time. With four deck game, these counts will happen a bit more frequetly, but not that much. For this reason I would think you need to consider having your max bet out much earlier than you proposed. I personally have my max bet out at TC of +4.

I see, could you PM me (or just post here) a different bet spread? I just want a final bet spread with, say, a RoR no greater than %5, but at the same time I don't want my EV to drop too dramatically either.

 

[kewljason]

I see, could you PM me (or just post here) a different bet spread? I just want a final bet spread with, say, a RoR no greater than %5, but at the same time I don't want my EV to drop too dramatically either.

Sorry, I am unable to help you at present. I am on east coast and my computer with BJ software is in vegas. If I had to guess, I would say that with a 1000 unit BR maybe putting an 8 unit wager ($40) at a TC of +5 (2% advantage) would be ballpark 5% RoR. I am just guessing, though. Hopefully someone else will be able to run it for you.

 

[pooptarts92]

Sorry, I am unable to help you at present. I am on east coast and my computer with BJ software is in vegas. If I had to guess, I would say that with a 1000 unit BR maybe putting an 8 unit wager ($40) at a TC of +5 (2% advantage) would be ballpark 5% RoR. I am just guessing, though. Hopefully someone else will be able to run it for you.

Ok thanks anyways man, thanks for the reply also, I knew my "sketchiness" to my spread was somewhat correct lol, as I haven't seen very many true 10's in my small yet seemingly long career. Off topic, one time while dealing at the casino I work at, I was keeping a count the whole way through (wong halves) and it reached a true 12 at one point, but no counters were at the table. During the next hand, 3 of the 5 hands on the table were blackjacks ahaha. If only I could have said something, although gambler's don't seem to care nor understand.

 

[bigplayer]

Your Game

Assuming $5 units x 1000 units = $5000 Bankroll

What do you hope to achieve? 1x20 or 2x15 units would be full kelly for this game. Your typical max bet for full kelly would be something like 2x$75 at +5 True and your win per 100 rounds would be around $45 bucks (13.5% Risk of Ruin with no resizing). If you played 1/4 kelly ($5 units as you suggest) your win rate would be around $11 per 100 rounds. You lower your risk to 0.03% but knock out most of your win rate. If you hope to grow your bankroll you need to get bigger edges, better opportunities, or the willingness to assume higher levels of risk than 1/4 Kelly.

When your bankroll gets to sufficient size (i.e, unlikely to be easily replenished) you then start to seriously factor risk and your bankroll itself becomes more potent as you can win money at a fast enough rate to cover moderate living expenses.

 

[pooptarts92]

Assuming $5 units x 1000 units = $5000 Bankroll

What do you hope to achieve? 1x20 or 2x15 would be full kelly for this game. Your typical max bet for full kelly would be something like 2x$75 at +5 True and your win per 100 rounds would be around $45 bucks. If you played 1/4 kelly ($5 units as you suggest) your win rate would be around $11 per 100 rounds.

If you have a regular job, why are you wasting your time worrying about preservation of your bankroll. You should be thinking about how to grow it instead. You will never grow your bankroll playing part time with $5 units. You either need bigger edges, better opportunities, or the willingness to on more risk with a "Hail Mary" style bankroll approach.

When your bankroll gets to sufficient size (i.e, unlikely to be easily replenished) you then start to seriously factor risk and your bankroll itself becomes more potent as you can win money at a fast enough rate to cover moderate living expenses.

Ok well I do have a full time job, this is more of a hobby for me, although I did use the word "career" i did not mean it is my actual career lol. But the reason I am talking about low RoR's and things alike is because of my previous losses, wiping out my previous bankroll almost completely. Maybe it's a stupid emotional factor that I should just ignore? Staying on topic though, feel free to provide a better bet spread with, let's say, a RoR no greater than 10%.

 

[pooptarts92]

Wong's halves, hun? You neglected to mention that. I was figuring hi-lo. With Halves count the TC frequency should be bumped up a little, but not really that much assuming you are using the actual values of .5 to 1.5 and not doubling them. (many people that use Halves double the values so they only have to deal with whole numbers). Definately wait until someone runs the numbers for you. If no one has by the time I get home mid week, I will run them for you, but hopefully someone will before that.

Actually I edited my first post 2 or 3 times, it does say Wong Halves under the first paragraph I believe. And I do double the card values, divide it in half and then do a quick TC conversion so I can play/bet accordingly, and then quickly go back to my whole number RC.

 

[kewljason]

Actually I edited my first post 2 or 3 times, it does say Wong Halves under the first paragraph I believe. And I do double the card values, divide it in half and then do a quick TC conversion so I can play/bet accordingly, and then quickly go back to my whole number RC.

Yes, you did. Sorry, I missed that. Max bet at +10 is appropriate if you are doubling the values, but if you are talking about +10 after you have divided them back in half then that is way too high.

 

[pooptarts92]

Yes, you did. Sorry, I missed that. Max bet at +10 is appropriate if you are doubling the values, but if you are talking about +10 after you have divided them back in half then that is way too high.

Lol my thoughts exactly, which is why I posted this thread. I do double the values, but when doing the TC conversion I DIVIDE THE RC IN HALF FIRST for the REAL halves count. I think my main problem is not knowing when to send out my max bet when considering my BR, and also my entire bet spread based on various tc's. I'm literally excited for someone to post me a good bet spread so I can start practicing up and adding bit by bit to my BR. As you may notice, I just bet a unit multiplied by the TC, which now is becoming evident to me isn't a very good way to go.