New promotions at the Cystal Bay Club!

[Cardcounter]

There are some new promotions at the crystal bay club along with some old ones. In May they are going to have May Madness and give away a $100 every hour from 2:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. every day in may. This is on top of double points for all activities not just slot but including table games. Plus there is the wine promotion for any suited blackjack with $10 or more bet. Just for playing you can get a free coupon for peluso's pizza! The club is practically giving away free money and free stuff just for playing there! I think that you should come down and play get your self your hands on some free money, free pizza, and some free wine!

 

[zengrifter]

There are some new promotions at the crystal bay club along with some old ones. In May they are going to have May Madness and give away a $100 every hour from 2:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. every day in may. This is on top of double points for all activities not just slot but including table games. Plus there is the wine promotion for any suited blackjack with $10 or more bet. Just for playing you can get a free coupon for peluso's pizza! The club is practically giving away free money and free stuff just for playing there! I think that you should come down and play get your self your hands on some free money, free pizza, and some free wine!

The promotion that you describe doesn't sound very lucrative for APs. zg

 

[Kasi]

The promotion that you describe doesn't sound very lucrative for APs. zg

Well it may not be lucrative but it sounds like a +EV situation. Isn't that the definition of an AP - playing in +EV situations?

Or do u mean, if even a BS player can win money in a certain situation he cannot be an AP player by definition?

Or do u mean no AP player should ever play a game that's less than his maximum return because he is winning less money that way and therefore a poor use of his time?

 

[ScottH]

Well it may not be lucrative but it sounds like a +EV situation. Isn't that the definition of an AP - playing in +EV situations?

Or do u mean, if even a BS player can win money in a certain situation he cannot be an AP player by definition?

Or do u mean no AP player should ever play a game that's less than his maximum return because he is winning less money that way and therefore a poor use of his time?

It's +EV, but that doesn't mean it's lucrative. Some promotions are just not good enough to be worth the effort and time. Time=money.

 

[Kasi]

It's +EV, but that doesn't mean it's lucrative. Some promotions are just not good enough to be worth the effort and time. Time=money.

So u think one needs an absolute dollar value per hour to be worth your time?

That's fine if u do.

Or is it x units per hour at such and such a risk of a bankroll of so many dollars?

Of course here we don't know the value of the wine, the value of the pizza or the value of winning some money every hour.

How do u define lucrative? As an AP, I guess you're saying u would pass it up despite it's +EV.

May u never play a game with a lower win rate with the same ROR than your bankroll will allow.

Time=money.

 

[ScottH]

So u think one needs an absolute dollar value per hour to be worth your time?

Basically. It's different for every person. Nobody is going to play a game that has an EV of 1 cent per hour. Most people won't play for an EV of 5 dollars per hour, but some might. What about 10, 20, 50 dollars/hour? Well, it depends on the person and how much money they have.

If you have 100k bankroll you wouldn't play a promo that has an EV o 5 dollars per hour because you can make a lot more just playing normal blackjack. But someone with a 500 dollar bankroll might love to play for 5 dollars an hour.

If I hear there is free cotton candy down at my school, I'm not going to go out of my way to go there and get it, even though it is clearly +EV. Whether or not an advantage play is worth it is just a personal decision.

 

[ChefJJ]

It depends whether you view EV as an absolute or as a function of how much you are risking. If you aren't spreading much, but the "EV" was $10/hour...is that not a great deal?

****, free booze is always +EV in my book :laugh: I've been known to travel considerable distances to party.

good luck

 

[Cardcounter]

You are wrong!

You said that nobody would play a game with an EV of 1 cent an hour. I disagree I think a lot of people would play a game with an EV of 1 cent an hour they are called gamblers. Many people will play a game with a negative EV or the casino would not be in business and I would not have a job. The point is the Casino will win on all its combined play for the day 9 times out of 10 or maybe even more than that. My point is if the Casino is winning their customers must be losing and playing a negative ev game.
The rules that are in place are not poor rules for Tahoe but are not the best rules either. Are single deck games play 3 to 2 for a blackjack some places pay (6 to 5) but we restrict doubling down to 10-11 only and hit soft 17 for house advantage with basic stragedy play of .541% and that is before you take all the promotions into account. I asked the pit bosses what they assumed the house advantage was with normal play and they said 2% on average.
The Shoe game is not a bad game either all blackjacks on the shoe game pay 3 to 2 you are allowed to double on any two cards, you can resplit aces making up two four hands, and you can double down after a split on any pair except for aces and the dealer hits soft 17 giving the house an advantage of .568% with perfect basic stragedy before any promotions. Plus there are only 6 decks in our shoe instead of 8 like they have at some other places.

 

[shadroch]

Time does not equal money.Ever try to borrow time?

 

[Cardcounter]

The game is plus EV after promotions!

This game for a perfect basic stragedy player is already a plus EV game if you take into account all the promotions and Casino comps. Lets take a flat better of $10 a hand who plays perfect basic stragedy. Lets say he plays 200 hands at $10 a hand he would be expected to lose $11.35 the value of the free pizza is $8. $11.35-$8=$3.35 2 free drinks that normal cost $2 are piece are comped $3.35-$4=-.65. The person earns 2 free bottles of wine in that time worth a total of $6. Plus he earned $10 dollars on his player card to be able to get a free a meal or two. The player took an expected loss of $11.35 and turned it into an expected value over the loss of about $16. You ask how can the casino afford to do this well I'm assuming perfect play and not average play. The average player will play at a 2% disadvantage. Lets analaze his play now he plays 200 hands at $10 and has an expected loss of $40-$8=$32-$4=$28-$6=$22-$10=$12 for an expected loss of just $10 after he has taken advantage of all the comps in the casino. The $8 is for the free pizza the $4 is for the free drinks he got $6 for the bottles of wine he won and $10 is for the comp dollars on his card. I think that $12 is a cheap price for a couple of hours of entertainment. Plus I did not mention his chance at $100 in free slot play as well.

 

[ScottH]

You said that nobody would play a game with an EV of 1 cent an hour. I disagree I think a lot of people would play a game with an EV of 1 cent an hour they are called gamblers. Many people will play a game with a negative EV or the casino would not be in business and I would not have a job. The point is the Casino will win on all its combined play for the day 9 times out of 10 or maybe even more than that. My point is if the Casino is winning their customers must be losing and playing a negative ev game.
The rules that are in place are not poor rules for Tahoe but are not the best rules either. Are single deck games play 3 to 2 for a blackjack some places pay (6 to 5) but we restrict doubling down to 10-11 only and hit soft 17 for house advantage with basic stragedy play of .541% and that is before you take all the promotions into account. I asked the pit bosses what they assumed the house advantage was with normal play and they said 2% on average.
The Shoe game is not a bad game either all blackjacks on the shoe game pay 3 to 2 you are allowed to double on any two cards, you can resplit aces making up two four hands, and you can double down after a split on any pair except for aces and the dealer hits soft 17 giving the house an advantage of .568% with perfect basic stragedy before any promotions. Plus there are only 6 decks in our shoe instead of 8 like they have at some other places.

Let me change my statement. No SANE person would play a game that EV's 1 cent per hour or less. Or at least no advantage player would.

 

[Canceler]

Not only that, but...

Time does not equal money.Ever try to borrow time?

If you spend money, you can usually get more. If you spend time, it's gone forever.

 

[jimbiggs]

And if you think about it ...

If you spend money, you can usually get more. If you spend time, it's gone forever.

Time is all we really have. Once you run out, nothing else matters.

 

[zengrifter]

Time is all we really have. Once you run out, nothing else matters.

When you transcend your thinking mind in the realization of your own pure, timeless, ever-present Awareness, then the illusion of time completely collapses, and you become utterly Free of the cycle of time, change, impermanence, and suffering. This, my friend, is nothing at all to be "depressed" about! Rather, the fact that your own Buddha Mind exists beyond time, in THIS very moment, is itself the key to your permanent and eternal (timeless) Liberation... Oh, I thought I was in the ZenZONE! zg

 

[Kasi]

It depends whether you view EV as an absolute or as a function of how much you are risking. If you aren't spreading much, but the "EV" was $10/hour...is that not a great deal?

****, free booze is always +EV in my book :laugh:

Each to his own but that sounds good to me

I'll stick to the definition an AP recognizes a +EV situation and then decides to play it or not. As, I think, others have also said.

If I can find $5/hour on a $500 roll, I'll hire 20 people to work each 8 hr shift 24 hrs/day and split the profits.

If I can make 1 cent/hr, I'll hire more people and make them bet more lol.

I liked your analysis Cardcounter!

 

[ScottH]

If I can make 1 cent/hr, I'll hire more people and make them bet more lol.

You're not a very good AP if you are playing for 1 cent per hour. You can make more money than that by just leaving your money in the bank! :laugh:

A real AP would not just play the 1 cent/hour game just because it is +EV, the good AP would play the game that offers him the best return for his money while maintaining a reasonable risk. If you can do better than 1 cent/hour then you are wasting your time at that game.

I could make more money selling cool-aid then you and your whole team would at the 1 cent game! :laugh:

 

[Sonny]

When you transcend your thinking mind in the realization of your own pure, timeless, ever-present Awareness, then the illusion of time completely collapses...

Then how do you measure EV?

-Sonny-

 

[ChefJJ]

Let me change my statement. No SANE person would play a game that EV's 1 cent per hour or less. Or at least no advantage player would.

Interesting...maybe the second part, not the "SANE" part. But we've had this discussion--and we all have different POV.

good luck

 

[Mimosine]

Oh, I thought I was in the ZenZONE! zg

aren't you always! :laugh:

 

[Kasi]

You're not a very good AP if you are playing for 1 cent per hour. You can make more money than that by just leaving your money in the bank! :laugh:

Love to leave $1 in a bank earning 1 cent/hr (100 units) or even $5 (500 units).
Or even $1000 lol. U must have a good bank.


But, yeah, all I mean is recognize a situation, evaluate it, and decide.