new to blackjack
- Thread starter cisco
- Start date
Cisco,
They don't affect your play what-so-ever. A lot of people find this hard to believe. How many times has the player before you taken that his when you know they shouldn't have and taken that 10 you needed for you double? These really stick out in the memory.
How many times has the player before you hit and taken a rubbish card that would have ruined your double leaving you with a nice 10? You don't remember this so much, as this seems like a consequence of your action (doubling your bet) rather than the other players (hitting when they shouldn't have).
The truth is that as often as poor players take a card that would have been useful to you, they take a card that would have ruined your hand. It all evens out in the end.
RJT.
They don't affect your play what-so-ever. A lot of people find this hard to believe. How many times has the player before you taken that his when you know they shouldn't have and taken that 10 you needed for you double? These really stick out in the memory.
How many times has the player before you hit and taken a rubbish card that would have ruined your double leaving you with a nice 10? You don't remember this so much, as this seems like a consequence of your action (doubling your bet) rather than the other players (hitting when they shouldn't have).
The truth is that as often as poor players take a card that would have been useful to you, they take a card that would have ruined your hand. It all evens out in the end.
RJT.
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
but what makes that card the so-called "dealer's bust card?"cisco said:
nothing you or anyone else at the table can do will predict with 100% certainty what the next card flipped over will be. not a damn thing.
it is just as likely, in fact more so that the dealer will turn a card that will give a pat total (70% of the time!). this is the absolute first step to making you a better player.
if you play your own hand on these similar "hunches" and not according to basic strategy then you will lose money over the long term at a much faster rate than if you just stick to the facts of the game.
fact 1) there are 13 different cards in the deck(s), without knowledge of the deck composition no player at the table can change the odds of play for any other player at the table based on their hit/stand/double/split/surrender decisions.
the dealer's next card isn't "controlled" by your play since you have no accurate knowledge about what their next card would be. if you're hoping for a dealer bust card (say a 9,10,J,Q,K) then you're holding on to a 5/13 chance, regardless of how the person at 3rd base plays.
and if you play your game agonizing over how someone else at the table is playing then you're ingnoring proven mathematical facts that have been shown over and over again.
acceptance might be a bastard for you on this point, but losing all your money playing hunches will be a worse one.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
Bad players
This biggest effect a bad player has overall is on his own results. As said before, his poor play will help others as much as hurt others hand by hand and work out even over time, but he will be continuously costing himself money.
Of course, card eating in a positive count does hurt, especially the counter. Sometimes though his lack of basic strategy will permit more rounds to be played in a positive count. The poor player will not split 9's and he will stay on soft 18 in situations where splits or doubles or hits are called for. The even worse player might stay on soft 17 and so on. I have no idea if this evens out as far as used or unused cards go, but the poor player does work as both a card eater and card saver.
ihate17
This biggest effect a bad player has overall is on his own results. As said before, his poor play will help others as much as hurt others hand by hand and work out even over time, but he will be continuously costing himself money.
Of course, card eating in a positive count does hurt, especially the counter. Sometimes though his lack of basic strategy will permit more rounds to be played in a positive count. The poor player will not split 9's and he will stay on soft 18 in situations where splits or doubles or hits are called for. The even worse player might stay on soft 17 and so on. I have no idea if this evens out as far as used or unused cards go, but the poor player does work as both a card eater and card saver.
ihate17
tribute
Well-Known Member
cisco said:
The dealer's bust card is a myth. I have seen players decline a hit, and the dealer still busted. Along these same lines, which dealer up-card do you prefer to see? I see dealers make more miracle hands with a five, or a six showing. Anything can happen in a blackjack game. It's no use getting bent out of shape over another player's decisions. What bothers me most is when I properly hit my 12 and draw a 10 four times in a row! Then, when it's time to double down on 11, the ten's are no where to be found.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
Selective memory
Forget the bad player for a moment because perhaps 99% or more of the people who play blackjack are bad or non basic strategy players.
Instead, take the guy who plays basic strategy perfectly but is not counting.
He will hit his 12 vs 3, 16 vs 10, soft18 vs 9,10, and A.
He will double soft 18 vs 3-6
He will split his 9's vs 2-6,8 and 9.
These are just a few standard, simple, basic strategy plays that infuriate the vast majority of blackjack players when things go bad for them.
So you double your soft 18 against the dealer's 4 and draw a six. The dealer lands up having a 6 in the hole and draws a ten, taking yours and everyone else's money on the table. The guy (who has no idea of BS) at first base, quickly sees and shouts out, "that if you had stayed on your perfectly good 18 and not been greedy, the dealer would have busted!" He will remember that hand, most of the players will remember that hand and because of your being their rage's target, you will remember that hand.
Two hands later: You get the same hand, double again and draw a 3, dealer has 16, hits a ten and busts. Had you followed first base's rants, the table would have lost again. Dealer pays the table, no one says nice hit to you, you just take your money like everyone else and the hand has been forgotten forever.
This is pretty close to exactly how the human mind works or does not work on the blackjack table.
ihate17
Forget the bad player for a moment because perhaps 99% or more of the people who play blackjack are bad or non basic strategy players.
Instead, take the guy who plays basic strategy perfectly but is not counting.
He will hit his 12 vs 3, 16 vs 10, soft18 vs 9,10, and A.
He will double soft 18 vs 3-6
He will split his 9's vs 2-6,8 and 9.
These are just a few standard, simple, basic strategy plays that infuriate the vast majority of blackjack players when things go bad for them.
So you double your soft 18 against the dealer's 4 and draw a six. The dealer lands up having a 6 in the hole and draws a ten, taking yours and everyone else's money on the table. The guy (who has no idea of BS) at first base, quickly sees and shouts out, "that if you had stayed on your perfectly good 18 and not been greedy, the dealer would have busted!" He will remember that hand, most of the players will remember that hand and because of your being their rage's target, you will remember that hand.
Two hands later: You get the same hand, double again and draw a 3, dealer has 16, hits a ten and busts. Had you followed first base's rants, the table would have lost again. Dealer pays the table, no one says nice hit to you, you just take your money like everyone else and the hand has been forgotten forever.
This is pretty close to exactly how the human mind works or does not work on the blackjack table.
ihate17