New to Community

[Ivan21]

I've been reading the message boards for a while and decided to join in. I am very impressed by the technical knowledge, the practical experience and the mathematics that takes place here. I also appreciate the brutally honest feedback that is given so freely...

I'm an avid bj player of stardard games offered in AC and CT. I play 100% BS, my BR is 10k, I usually take at least 30% with me, I gravitate towards black chip tables, and my style is hit and run. When I make a decent return I color and leave. I've tried to applied HiLo with limited success. I usually play with the pattern of cards and expect that pattern to continue, i.e. if I'm getting good hands and winning I bet into it or if the dealer is having a good run of breaking I bet into that, otherwise I keep my bets flat.

After reading through this message board, I started keeping a spreadsheet of the hours played and the results per trip. In Sept, I play 5 times, for 9.5 hours, and made +7735. But I'm a little concerned b/c I read in the Blackjack Zone, that I am "fred", a loser because I leave after I win a certain amount in an evening. So, now I am somewhat confused. I thought I was just applying good money management. ???

I look forward to hearing any and all of your thoughts. Please don't hold back!

Thank you

 

[sabre]

Leaving after winning a certain amount is BAD for a counter, since it reduces the amount of hands played, thus reducing the total amount wagered. Since the counter plays with an overall advantage ... less wagered = less won. This is what you probably read.

For you however, who are playing BS, leaving after winning a certain amount is GOOD, because it reduces the number of hands you play, thus reducing your total amount wagered. Since you don't play with an advantage ... less wagered = less lost. Leaving after losing a certain amount would be even better, since you'll hit your stop loss more often than your stop win.

I would advise that you get an idea of your expected loss. If you are playing black chips with basic strategy, and you state that you press your bets when you're feeling it, your average bet is in the $150/hand range maybe? If you play full tables at 60 hands/hr, and perfect basic strategy, you are probably playing at a $150 * 60 * .005 (house advantage) = $45/hr loss. So with 10K to play with, you can expect to play for 222 hours before losing the 10K.

Stick to full tables, make sure you are playing correct basic strategy, take lots of bathroom breaks. That's the best way to stretch your dollar.

 

[Sonny]

I also appreciate the brutally honest feedback that is given so freely...

Always brutal, sometimes honest. :grin: Welcome aboard!

But I'm a little concerned b/c I read in the Blackjack Zone, that I am "fred", a loser because I leave after I win a certain amount in an evening. So, now I am somewhat confused. I thought I was just applying good money management. ???

Blackjack Zone is a great first book to read. It dispels a lot of the myths that gamblers fall into. In this case, your “money management” system doesn’t manage your money at all, it just encourages you to bet more even though the house still has the edge. Bigger bets mean that you will lose more money overall. A better money management system for a BS player would be to bet as little as possible and play as slowly as possible while taking full advantage of the comps and casino promos. You will still be losing money by playing BJ, but you will be losing much less and the comps can help compensate for the losses.

-Sonny-

 

[ycming]

With that sort of bank roll, i would defo learn the Hi-lo,bet spread and index.

As said if you are playing perfect Bs, then is a good idea with a hit and run!

Ming

 

[Ivan21]

Allow myself to introduce...myself.

Thanks you given me a different perspective for reading the book.

I try to get onto partially full tables for a session but that has been harder and harder to find lately. And when you do the players do not play perfect BS or even near perfect. They don't play 9,9 correctly and very rarely play A,7 at all. I can't count the number of times they ask for help with a 15vT and a $300 bet. They look at it like its the first time they ever seen the hand!

So, usually I try to find one or two good players to sit with. I play either one or two hands. If I play one hand, my betting strategy is 1,2,3,5. When playing two hands, I only increase my bets if I win both hands. Many trips I play straight up against the dealer with two hands, if I make a 100% return of my buy in (~2500) I run for the door, even if I'm in the 1st shoe.

I do realize my play is not optimum, and I'm hoping for insight. But I'm guessing the advice is to develop my counting skills till it's equal to my BS skills.

 

[shadroch]

Do not worry about what the other players do. In the long run ,they have no effect whatsoever on you. As long as you are playing BS, you want to play with full tables and take occasional breaks. The less hands you play, the better.

 

[johndoe]

Thanks you given me a different perspective for reading the book.

I try to get onto partially full tables for a session but that has been harder and harder to find lately. And when you do the players do not play perfect BS or even near perfect. They don't play 9,9 correctly and very rarely play A,7 at all. I can't count the number of times they ask for help with a 15vT and a $300 bet. They look at it like its the first time they ever seen the hand!

So, usually I try to find one or two good players to sit with. I play either one or two hands. If I play one hand, my betting strategy is 1,2,3,5. When playing two hands, I only increase my bets if I win both hands. Many trips I play straight up against the dealer with two hands, if I make a 100% return of my buy in (~2500) I run for the door, even if I'm in the 1st shoe.

I do realize my play is not optimum, and I'm hoping for insight. But I'm guessing the advice is to develop my counting skills till it's equal to my BS skills.

The word "optimum" implies that it's still "pretty good". It isn't, it's not good at all - you're playing a losing strategy, guaranteed to lose money over time. You got lucky sometimes, and that's it.

All of these progression strategy and session limits fail. There are no two ways about it. At least you're playing BS though, which makes it a step up from "horrible".

You need to find a way to play with an edge, and card counting is an obvious choice. THEN you can talk about "optimizing" your play.

 

[Mr. T]

I am somewhat like you. Play 100% BS. Flat bet most of the time at a crowded table. So expect to lose and take jabs from other non BS players. My question to you is why do you still want to gamble and lose.

There is 1 difference though between you and me. I am a Comp Whore. Otherwise what incentive is there for you and me to play BJ. Without getting some excellent Comps I would not even step inside the Casino.

 

[Ivan21]

to Johndoe:

Thanks for the feedback. I understand and I agree. Everyone here is totally commited to long run theory. I have had some short term luck and got off the table as soon as I could. Becoming a AP, will increase my chances of success dramatically but does not guarantee success, especially in ther short term.

At this point, the question for me remains invest the time to become optimal AP or continue with 100% BS and limit losses/hours played. With the knowledge that optimum play does not quarantee profits but increases probability. Is that the correct way to state it?

to Mr T.

I read in a BJ book to never play for comps only for cash. I still get my fair share of comps; RFB at AC and CT, in addition to all the give away stuff but more importantly I'm making money. For example, got a free weekend at Harrahs AC, I played 3 hours Friday night won 3500 and didn't play again. Ate and drank in diamond club, saw a free show, etc...

 

[Mr. T]

You sound like you are my man, Ivan.

 

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Ivan21 View Post
But I'm a little concerned b/c I read in the Blackjack Zone, that I am "fred", a loser because I leave after I win a certain amount in an evening. So, now I am somewhat confused. I thought I was just applying good money management. ???

Always brutal, sometimes honest. :grin: Welcome aboard!



Blackjack Zone is a great first book to read. It dispels a lot of the myths that gamblers fall into. In this case, your “money management” system doesn’t manage your money at all, it just encourages you to bet more even though the house still has the edge. Bigger bets mean that you will lose more money overall. A better money management system for a BS player would be to bet as little as possible and play as slowly as possible while taking full advantage of the comps and casino promos. You will still be losing money by playing BJ, but you will be losing much less and the comps can help compensate for the losses.

-Sonny-

lol Sonny, this is a subject you explained to me long ago. i know you are essentially correct. of course i took what you explained with a 'grain of salt' and have continued to follow the errors of my ways.

i would argue that Mr T & Ivan who is employing some counting (albeit not 100% proficient) is potentially managing his money, and that he would be even if he was only playing basic strategy, and that he would be even if he was just flat out gambling.

reason being, a counter, a flat betting basic strategy player and a flat out gambler, well none of them know the future.
two points underlie this fact, all three types of players could lose their entire bankroll as it is a fact that risk of ruin is never zero, while a bankroll to sustain play is relatively enormous compared to the potential winnings of the majority of the players aside from Pro's (who are probably playing with others money). the other point is that all three types may not know their selves as well as they think they do when it comes to the actual fact of losing an entire bankroll. not unlike me, the actual experience of losing a large chunk of that bankroll could deflate that 'courageous balloon' of utility judgment to the point where the player takes a large loss and gives up the quest over a matter of loss of heart.

so just me maybe, i think if one is going to lose the money and you can always lose the money then one should lose it according to ones thoughtful sensitivities ie. according to the money management scheme of ones choice tacked onto a knowledge of card counting theory of risk of ruin.
the worst thing that would do is slow down potential winnings.
granted a professional card counter would probably not want to use such an approach.

click the link below and i think you'll understand my point. :laugh:

 

[johndoe]

Thanks for the feedback. I understand and I agree. Everyone here is totally commited to long run theory. I have had some short term luck and got off the table as soon as I could. Becoming a AP, will increase my chances of success dramatically but does not guarantee success, especially in ther short term.

I'll caution you against falling into the common "long-run / short-run" fallacy that lots of unknowledgable people keep bringing up.

If you are just playing BS, you're playing a losing game, and you're more likely to lose in the short run as well as the long run, than if you were an AP.

Playing BS alone, the best ("optimal", since you like that word) strategy is to not play. If you must, then play table minimum, slowly, and take lots of breaks. There is no better strategy for a losing game.

At this point, the question for me remains invest the time to become optimal AP or continue with 100% BS and limit losses/hours played. With the knowledge that optimum play does not quarantee profits but increases probability. Is that the correct way to state it?

I once again take issue with your use of "optimal", as it's deceiving language. Even a "non-optimal" AP is probably playing at an advantage, it's just not as profitable as it could be. You're very clearly playing a losing game, which is far worse than "sub-optimal". It's just outright bad!

Being an AP does not "increase" profitability. It "enables" profitability. You seem to think that you're still playing a winning game. You are not, and if you keep playing, you're *guaranteed* to lose.

 

[psyduck]

to Johndoe:

At this point, the question for me remains invest the time to become optimal AP or continue with 100% BS and limit losses/hours played. With the knowledge that optimum play does not quarantee profits but increases probability. Is that the correct way to state it?

Becoming an AP and watching for short term results have been most beneficial for me.

 

[Ivan21]

I do apologize to the entire community for not using the appropriate AP language or "optimal" communication lingo. I never realized that using a word could cause such deep feelings of irratation.

apparently, I am, in fact Fred. and soon to lose it all. I will do my best to lose it slowly and maximize (hope it's okay to say that) my comps...and have a little fun in the process.

 

[creeping panther]

Ivan

Thanks you given me a different perspective for reading the book.

I try to get onto partially full tables for a session but that has been harder and harder to find lately. And when you do the players do not play perfect BS or even near perfect. They don't play 9,9 correctly and very rarely play A,7 at all. I can't count the number of times they ask for help with a 15vT and a $300 bet. They look at it like its the first time they ever seen the hand!

So, usually I try to find one or two good players to sit with. I play either one or two hands. If I play one hand, my betting strategy is 1,2,3,5. When playing two hands, I only increase my bets if I win both hands. Many trips I play straight up against the dealer with two hands, if I make a 100% return of my buy in (~2500) I run for the door, even if I'm in the 1st shoe.

I do realize my play is not optimum, and I'm hoping for insight. But I'm guessing the advice is to develop my counting skills till it's equal to my BS skills.

If you are winning, like you say you are,,than keep it up, WHY change???

If you can play a shoe with a .22 HA and you play perfect as you say, it is very possible to come out a winner, you are playing on a razors edge.

CP

 

[Ivan21]

My original question was why is setting a profit goal for a session and leaving if you hit that goal, make you a "fred", according to Blackjack Zone.

I was hoping for a little insight from a very knowledgable and experienced community, as to how to improve my skills expecially around betting strategies and money management.

What I think I am hearing is I need to card count, shuffle track or hole card play to be successful. Otherwise, I will lose. So far I guess I've been lucky and since there is no such think as luck, fate, karma, etc...I should consider giving up blackjack. Because I can clearly understand all the theoretical simulations but I still believe each session can be an individual fluid event. And thoughts like those can really rub people the wrong way. That's not what I'm trying to do.

 

[Ivan21]

To CP

I do think I am playing on a razors edge but sometimes I also feel like I'm leaving money on the table. It's may also be risky to bring only 3k to a black chip table, not enough room for error.

 

[ycming]

This is like playing a game of heads and tails, where there are 0.55 chances of getting head and 0.45 chances of getting tail. The pay out is 1:1 and you are only allowed to gamble on getting a tail.

would you play that now?

Ming

 

[johndoe]

What I think I am hearing is I need to card count, shuffle track or hole card play to be successful. Otherwise, I will lose. So far I guess I've been lucky and since there is no such think as luck, fate, karma, etc...I should consider giving up blackjack.

That is absolutely correct. Praying, shouting "monkey" as the dealer draws, consulting the tarot, and carrying lucky charms while playing table minimums is actually more effective than the betting strategy you outline.

Because I can clearly understand all the theoretical simulations but I still believe each session can be an individual fluid event.

Each session is indeed an individual fluid event. At least each shoe is. So you're right here.

And thoughts like those can really rub people the wrong way. That's not what I'm trying to do.

It's not "those thoughts" that rub people the wrong way; it's the continued implication that there's something "right" about what you're doing, since you got lucky. There isn't.

But if you really just want to play BS, get some comps, and have fun, by all means have at it and best of luck to you. But don't delude yourself (or anyone else) into thinking that you're playing a winning strategy.

 

[Ivan21]

Actually Ming, that does make sense. And I have almost finished the Blackjack Zone book so I do understand where you are all coming from...I just completed the chapter on why progressive betting strategies are not worth playing.

I don't believe I ever stated or implied my approach was the "right" one or a "winning" strategy. It was a limited sample with very few hours played. I wanted to hear a little insight from experienced players. Some suggestions on a more formal approach to the game. I never claimed to be an AP, just and avid player who enjoys the game. I'm probably better served reading a few more books and learning a simple count system, than asking for help from the AAP that hang out here.

Everyone knows shouting "monkey" doesn't work, unless you slam the table with your hand at the same time!!