Newbie: Card Counting, possible?

[x8f90]

Ok, I am probably way too late in the scene, as usual. But I do know the story about the MIT students, some card counting techniques, and basic Blackjack strategy (stay when the dealer is showing a low card, hit when dealer showing a high one, etc.).

My question is assuming you do not get caught is card counting still possible? Or has Vegas casinos been able to crack down on these guys/gals?

Is doing something like the MIT kids possible?

 

[rollem411]

Ok, I am probably way too late in the scene, as usual. But I do know the story about the MIT students, some card counting techniques, and basic Blackjack strategy (stay when the dealer is showing a low card, hit when dealer showing a high one, etc.).

My question is assuming you do not get caught is card counting still possible? Or has Vegas casinos been able to crack down on these guys/gals?

Is doing something like the MIT kids possible?

Yes you can card count if you do not get caught, but pretty much anything is possible until you get caught. The MIT students are too well known so I don't think they would be able to pull anything off like that again, but I do believe there are other teams out there.

 

[x8f90]

Yes you can card count if you do not get caught, but pretty much anything is possible until you get caught. The MIT students are too well known so I don't think they would be able to pull anything off like that again, but I do believe there are other teams out there.

Gotcha. That is really what I am talking about. If I start a team tomorrow, no one will know us, hense we'd start out fresh. I am thinking, by the time I become well known I'd have enough money to invest in other things, no?

I just don't know if such a possibility exists anymore... maybe they closed all of the possiblities to give anyone such advantages.

 

[shadroch]

When one door closes,another one opens.
Plenty of chances out there.But a couple of beginners starting a team had best go very slow.

 

[rogue1]

Ken Uston wrote The Big Player about 15 years before Semyon Dukach and the other M.I.T. folks did their thing. My point is the casinos were well aware of team play and the M.I.T. team made all kinds of money. I'm sure you can do just as well today.

 

[Sonny]

Organized card counting teams have been operating in casinos for over 30 years. The fact that the MIT guys could still get away with it 30 years later should show how slow the casinos are at catching us. :grin:

-Sonny-

 

[x8f90]

When one door closes,another one opens.
Plenty of chances out there.But a couple of beginners starting a team had best go very slow.

Yup, going slow is my intention. I am thinking about buying a nice blackjack table and the whole casino setup in my house to practice (actually, I got most of the pieces already). Then, maybe get a friend or 2 in it with me. I am thinking once we try this at home, we can go down to a local casino and try it with a couple thousand investment between the two-three of us.

Ken Uston wrote The Big Player about 15 years before Semyon Dukach and the other M.I.T. folks did their thing. My point is the casinos were well aware of team play and the M.I.T. team made all kinds of money. I'm sure you can do just as well today.

That is the impression that I am getting. Do a lot of people do this, especially from this board? If it is at all possible I don't see why so many people aren't making a career out of it.

 

[rollem411]

If it is at all possible I don't see why so many people aren't making a career out of it.

It's a whole lot different when you are putting your actual bet down at the table. I thought I was ready to hit the casino. I didn't keep to my spread and that was what killed me. I think the #1 reason people don't do it is because they can't handle having a large losing session. They either just quit or start chasing their money and lose everything. I guess I wasn't confident in my ability and that's what held me back, but I just keep practicing and now I will stick to my gameplay.

 

[x8f90]

It's a whole lot different when you are putting your actual bet down at the table. I thought I was ready to hit the casino. I didn't keep to my spread and that was what killed me. I think the #1 reason people don't do it is because they can't handle having a large losing session. They either just quit or start chasing their money and lose everything. I guess I wasn't confident in my ability and that's what held me back, but I just keep practicing and now I will stick to my gameplay.

Sounds like you're saying, "you have to know when to get up," yes?

 

[shadroch]

Yup, going slow is my intention. I am thinking about buying a nice blackjack table and the whole casino setup in my house to practice (actually, I got most of the pieces already). Then, maybe get a friend or 2 in it with me. I am thinking once we try this at home, we can go down to a local casino and try it with a couple thousand investment between the two-three of us.



That is the impression that I am getting. Do a lot of people do this, especially from this board? If it is at all possible I don't see why so many people aren't making a career out of it.

Its more of a part-time job,or a well paying hobby.While there are hundreds of fulltime players,there are few that are on this board much.

 

[x8f90]

Its more of a part-time job,or a well paying hobby.While there are hundreds of fulltime players,there are few that are on this board much.

Should I expect to bump into you in AC sometime soon then?

So do you play alone and raise your bets when the count gets high?

 

[Bojack1]

Yup, going slow is my intention. I am thinking about buying a nice blackjack table and the whole casino setup in my house to practice (actually, I got most of the pieces already). Then, maybe get a friend or 2 in it with me. I am thinking once we try this at home, we can go down to a local casino and try it with a couple thousand investment between the two-three of us.



That is the impression that I am getting. Do a lot of people do this, especially from this board? If it is at all possible I don't see why so many people aren't making a career out of it.

Its not that easy. After you have learned as much as you can, go to the casino and you will learn why more don't make careers out of it. It can be done, but it takes a different sort to really give it a shot. Not to mention a very large bankroll, especially for a team. Get your feet wet first before making any big decisions. Just focus on doing it right for a while, that might be a good early goal to have. As you learn more, it will become clearer what direction you will want to take your card counting. More often than not you will give it up, if you don't, it'll probably become a sort of recreational activity with a chance to make a little money aside from your primary job. If it ever gets to be more than that, I'd be surprised, but I wish you luck.

 

[ihate17]

Ka Ching, my personal ATM

Often I see someone brand new to the idea of cardcounting thinking this is a majic formula to turning any casino into their personal ATM machine. Need a few grand, go to the casino, need a new car, go to the casino. Unfortunately, paranoid casinos take the same attitude but the truth is that it just is not that easy and at best it still does not work that way.

Definately you can make money and if you are good and have a large bankroll you can make a lot of money. A team should mean a much larger bankroll than you could raise yourself, getting to the long run faster and less variance than an individual player. It is also still easier to somewhat disguise team play than to do the same with individual play.

The variance of blackjack and all that comes with it, is what novices seem to gloss over when reading a book about the game, but it is always there. Current team, MIT team, Uston team or just playing by yourself, there will always be times where your little edge gets swamped by negative variance (or call it bad luck), so never think you can make money session after session. It is the reason we speak long term! I know good counters who have had losing streaks that seemed to last for 6 months and these people overcame them and are lifetime winners. I know other counters with good potential who hit runs of negative variance and could not handle it, either mentally or financially, and stopped playing.

So form your team but understand that if it were so simple that everytime the deck is rich and you put out a big bet, you win, there would be hundreds of times more people doing it.

ihate17

 

[x8f90]

Often I see someone brand new to the idea of cardcounting thinking this is a majic formula to turning any casino into their personal ATM machine. Need a few grand, go to the casino, need a new car, go to the casino. Unfortunately, paranoid casinos take the same attitude but the truth is that it just is not that easy and at best it still does not work that way.

Definately you can make money and if you are good and have a large bankroll you can make a lot of money. A team should mean a much larger bankroll than you could raise yourself, getting to the long run faster and less variance than an individual player. It is also still easier to somewhat disguise team play than to do the same with individual play.

The variance of blackjack and all that comes with it, is what novices seem to gloss over when reading a book about the game, but it is always there. Current team, MIT team, Uston team or just playing by yourself, there will always be times where your little edge gets swamped by negative variance (or call it bad luck), so never think you can make money session after session. It is the reason we speak long term! I know good counters who have had losing streaks that seemed to last for 6 months and these people overcame them and are lifetime winners. I know other counters with good potential who hit runs of negative variance and could not handle it, either mentally or financially, and stopped playing.

So form your team but understand that if it were so simple that everytime the deck is rich and you put out a big bet, you win, there would be hundreds of times more people doing it.

ihate17

That is really good advice, thank you.

A question comes to mind: If playing by yourself, how much of a bankroll would be needed to come out with something worth talking about?

 

[BJinNJ]

You're Not Ready

You have the basic idea, but if you need to ask what
size bankroll to start with, you need more info.

My suggestion is to go read several good books on
blackjack. They will tell you the little details you
need to know BEFORE putting money on the table.

I'm new, too, and my reading list includes(in no particular order):

Blackbelt In Blackjack by Snyder
Blackjack Bluebook II by Renzey
Blackjack Blueprint by Blaine
Blackjack for Blood by Carlson
Professional Blackjack by Wong
Million Dollar Blackjack by Uston

Read these and maybe you'll pick up enough info
to get started. Each provides different insights.

I've read twice that many books, but these are
probably the best ones, except for Revere. But,
Revere says nothing about bankroll, and its preservation.
(He teaches you BS and how to count)

Positive variance to you.

BJinNJ

Knowledge is power

 

[BJinNJ]

Does CVCX calculate

bankrolls/bet ramps for team play?

Just wondering.

BJinNJ

 

[shadroch]

Should I expect to bump into you in AC sometime soon then?

So do you play alone and raise your bets when the count gets high?

Perhaps we already have,although I mostly play in Vegas.I greatly prefer Double deck to shoes,and DD shoes most of all.
If I'm playing alone,yes,I mostly play as you describe.I'm yet to get into shuffle tracking and such.

 

[EasyRhino]

Shad, you prefer DD in shoes over pitch games?

I'll agree with NJ that some books are in order to cover the ground work, and I really like his first three suggestions, in no particular order:

Blackjack Bluebook II by Renzey
Blackjack Blueprint by Blaine
Blackbelt In Blackjack by Snyder

There are still people out there doing basic solo counting. A smaller number of these people are actually successful. A smaller number are doing this at high stakes. And even small number are doing it as part of a team. But they're all still possible.