newbie question

[jetblack3s]

i know the purpose of counting, but i don't quite understand why big cards are good for the players, can somebody explain this: (i am the kind of learner that need to know the concept and logic behind in order to process.. lol)

1.is it because small cards will allow dealer to make his hand more often and when player have a stiff, they don't hit because dealer only show a small card?

2. so when there are more big cards, the player will have a better chance of getting 17+ more often without busting while trying to make his hand on a low stiff, right?


3. If you are counting and not vary your bet size(flat bet), but use the TC to determine whether to hit or not adjusting to the BS charts, does it give you an advantage over the house? will you make money that way or at least break even the edge on the house side

4. i remembered somebody here said that high TC not necessary that you will win, it is when the TC is very high and collapse, is this true and why?


sorry if this is annoying, i am starting to read counting book, the first i am reading now is how to play like a pro by kevin blackwood. he haven't cover these areas....

 

[FLASH1296]

All Card Counting Systems are keyed to the same principle.
Namely that with an abnormally high ratio of High Cards to Low Cards
the player stands much improved prospects on his splits and doubles,
as well as a higher probability of receiving a blackjack.

In any case the player's chances of winning a particular hand will not rise much from 43%.
Note that a 'normal' rate of pushes is 9% but that will rise some as the % of
face cards rise and make an excess of 20's for the player and dealer alike.

Also note that the dealer's overall bust % of 28% will only rise
modestly with the increased density of Face Cards that we seek.

As to your 3rd question, in shoe games varying the play of (some of) your hands in accordance
with the count is of little importance when compared to accurate bet-sizing.
The Insurance decision, however is an exceptional case. It is VERY important.

Re: Your 4th question - when the true Count is high you will be betting more.
As you will then be playing into cards with a higher than normal density of Tens and Aces.
As you get winning hands, those hands will mostly be your 19's, 20's, and blackjacks.
As those hands are completed, the true Count will be dropping due to the depletion of high cards.

Note: Kevin Blackwood's Book is good; but very few players will suggest a beginner learn to use Hi-Opt II.
This is a very very powerful count, but it is far too hard to use efficiently and accurately in shoe games.
I suggest that you read "Blackbelt in Blackjack" by Arnold Snyder - and learn the Zen Count.
The book has other, easy to use, Card Counting Systems, i.e. The Red Seven, Hi-Lo Lite, etc.

 

[FLASH1296]

All Card Counting Systems are keyed to the same principle.
Namely that with an abnormally high ratio of High Cards to Low Cards
the player stands much improved prospects on his splits and doubles,
as well as a higher probability of receiving a blackjack.

In any case the player's chances of winning a
particular hand will not rise very much
from the "off the top" frequency of 43%.
A 'normal' rate of pushes is 9%.
That figure will rise some as the percentage of face cards rises
and make an excess of 20's for the player and dealer alike.

Also note that the dealer's overall bust percentage of 28% will only rise
modestly with the increased density of Face Cards that we seek.

As to your 3rd question, in shoe games varying the play of (some of) your hands in
accordance with the count is of little importance when compared to accurate bet-sizing.
The Insurance decision, however is an exceptional case. It is VERY important.

 

[callipygian]

1.is it because small cards will allow dealer to make his hand more often and when player have a stiff, they don't hit because dealer only show a small card?

As FLASH1296 pointed out, it's mostly because player doubles work out more often and because player stiff vs. dealer stiff works out more often.

2. so when there are more big cards, the player will have a better chance of getting 17+ more often without busting while trying to make his hand on a low stiff, right?

No, the opposite. With more big cards, the player is more likely to bust low stiffs, which is why player 12 vs. dealer 2,3 are stood more often at high counts.

3. If you are counting and not vary your bet size(flat bet), but use the TC to determine whether to hit or not adjusting to the BS charts, does it give you an advantage over the house? will you make money that way or at least break even the edge on the house side

It won't even get close to giving you an advantage over the house for shoe games; I don't think it will give you and advantage in single-deck games either, but I could be wrong.

4. i remembered somebody here said that high TC not necessary that you will win, it is when the TC is very high and collapse, is this true and why?

As FLASH1296 pointed out, having a high TC doesn't mean you'll win. The percentage of hands you win barely changes. At high TC's, you will win more on the hands you do win, which is where most of your advantage comes from.

Your confusion comes from a very advanced point, which you should entirely forget about if you're as new as your questions indicate. The advanced point is this: that your actual advantage comes from a drop in RC (not TC), not from a high TC or RC itself. If the RC keeps on climbing, it means the high cards you are anticipating are not coming out; while you had anticipated having the advantage prior to playing the hand, looking back on the hand you should not be surprised if you lose more frequently than usual. The reason why TC is used as a measurement is because the RC is more likely to drop than rise when the TC is high.