Newbie question

[socal_bj]

I've been playing BJ since I was a kid when my dad taught me, but I only recently started counting using ZEN. I've put in 100 hours of practice (I continue to practice at home), got the casino verite software and read 5 books on the mater. I'm an ex-cpa, so I'm good with the numbers. Now I'm a housewife, Asian woman, late 30s. My husband makes a good income so I have a rolling bank roll of about $8K-$10K per year (with $5K up front). I've been playing $10-$15 minimums. I'm down $250 after 10 sessions of play.

My newbie question is, my favorite local casino offers early surrender which is great. But I'm not sure what to do when dealer has 7 or 8 and I have 15 or 16. Do I take a hit if count is negative and STAND if positive? I don't surrender against these cards, right?

It's a gray area for me. Thanks for your help!

BTW....maybe it's because I'm playing small stakes or my profile is not a typical card counter but I seem to have no problem just telling the dealer I don't want to play a hand when the count is too negative. Then I sit there and wait until the count improves. I chat with the bit poss while I wait, nobody seems to mind. Should I keep doing it this way?

 

[Sonny]

You would not surrender against a 7 or 8. With a 15 or 16 you would hit unless the count is at or above the threshold for those plays (+11 for 15 vs. 7, +10 for 15 vs. 8, +10 for 16 vs. 7 and +8 for 16 vs. 8). And, based on your location, you are playing a game with late surrender, not early surrender, so you should make sure you are using the correct basic strategy.

-Sonny-

 

[socal_bj]

You would not surrender against a 7 or 8. With a 15 or 16 you would hit unless the count is at or above the threshold for those plays (+11 for 15 vs. 7, +10 for 15 vs. 8, +10 for 16 vs. 7 and +8 for 16 vs. 8). And, based on your location, you are playing a game with late surrender, not early surrender, so you should make sure you are using the correct basic strategy.

-Sonny-

YES you are right. Late surrender (sorry). The dealer checks for a bj before I'm allowed to surrender. And thanks for clarifying the strategy. Seems to me that hitting 15 or 16 when count is positive often busts me regardless of what the dealer shows, so it doesn't make sense to hit them when I can surrender. BUT I will stick to the correct play and try not to chicken out.

 

[The Chaperone]

YES you are right. Late surrender (sorry). The dealer checks for a bj before I'm allowed to surrender. And thanks for clarifying the strategy. Seems to me that hitting 15 or 16 when count is positive often busts me regardless of what the dealer shows, so it doesn't make sense to hit them when I can surrender. BUT I will stick to the correct play and try not to chicken out.

Let's not re-invent the wheel. Standing on these hands is a terrible play, unless the count is extremely high (see post above). You are falling into the ploppy trap of standing so you can last a few more seconds. In my opinion there are some serious psychological issues at play here which leads people to want their bet to be alive longer rather than maximize their chances of winning the bet. The truth is, these are bad hands and regardless what you do, you will lose them more often than you win, but the important thing is to make the proper play to maximize your chance of winning. That play is elucidated perfectly by a basic strategy chart.

 

[farmdoggy]

Yes, almost always hit in these situations... Never stand, either hit or surrender if the count is at or above the index. A 16 vs 7 only needs an ace to significantly improve the chances of the hand.

 

[FLASH1296]

An Ace slightly improves your chances over standing.

With a hard 17 you only win when the dealer busts, where you would win
if you stand; and push on the dealer 17, which will occur just 31% of the
time on average. That does NOT mean you win 31% of the time, you just
don't lose.

 

[Shoofly]

BTW....maybe it's because I'm playing small stakes or my profile is not a typical card counter but I seem to have no problem just telling the dealer I don't want to play a hand when the count is too negative. Then I sit there and wait until the count improves. I chat with the bit poss while I wait, nobody seems to mind. Should I keep doing it this way?

Absolutely. Each place is different. I also play small stakes. At one of the places I play, many people sit out some hands and nobody pays any attention. It is much better than bathroom breaks of fake phone calls. Just sit and chat until the count improves or the shoe ends.

 

[socal_bj]

playing single dec 6 to 5

OK, I know that playing single deck when BJ pays only 6 to 5 is not a good idea because it decreases your odds by 1.53%. However, I was playing it today to take a break from the 6 deck which was killing me.

The 6 to 5 BJ at this casino seems to have some compensating factors. They took late surrender (+.53%) AND the dealer was dealing +90% penetration! I couldn't believe it. He was doing down to the last 4 or 5 cards. Doesn't this make up for the 6 to 5 pay off on BJ?

Also during the 3 hours that I played (approx 170 hands) I only got BJ 4 times, whereas I had to surrender 8 times. So it did not seem like the 6 to 5 rule hurt me that much.

Any thoughts?

 

[riggler]

Absolutely. Each place is different. I also play small stakes. At one of the places I play, many people sit out some hands and nobody pays any attention. It is much better than bathroom breaks of fake phone calls. Just sit and chat until the count improves or the shoe ends.

Thank god for ploppy voodoo known as "changing the flow of the cards." Yeah, I'm changing the flow alright. To a positive count...shhhhh...

 

[Canceler]

Also during the 3 hours that I played (approx 170 hands) I only got BJ 4 times, ... So it did not seem like the 6 to 5 rule hurt me that much.

The implication is that NOT getting BJs is a GOOD thing??

Any thoughts?

I think that's a really twisted concept.