Newbie

[sledder]

I am a Basic Strategy player and have taken a couple of beatings lately that have really rocked my idea of continuing to play blackjack. The casinos in my area (southern Ontario) use 6 deck continuous shufflers and I have recently had an experience where I lost 15 out of 17 DD hands. I would get an 11 against a bust and get a A, 2, or 3 every time. What should I do in this circumstance? I tried moving to different tables, but the debt. just kept piling up.

Aside: How do you guys/girls work any kind of Card Counting System when the cards are re-shuffled after every deal?

BTW I really enjoy this site and value any opinions that are offered.

Thanks again.

 

[Sonny]

...I have recently had an experience where I lost 15 out of 17 DD hands. What should I do in this circumstance? I tried moving to different tables, but the debt. just kept piling up.

That’s just the nature of the game. Sometimes you will lose 15 DD hands in a row, another time you will win 15 in a row. Sometimes you will play for hours without ever getting a blackjack, other times you will get three in a row. The variance of the game is pretty big. In fact, that’s why most people play. Even a terrible player can win a few sessions. Even though a basic strategy player is still playing at a disadvantage they can often have a winning session by pure luck.

There is really no way to change your luck in this situation. You have to take the bad with the good. Since you are playing against the house edge you should be prepared to lose a little money anyway. Just try to enjoy the good times.

How do you guys/girls work any kind of Card Counting System when the cards are re-shuffled after every deal?

You can’t. Card counting doesn’t work when the cards are reshuffled after every hand.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

I have recently had an experience where I lost 15 out of 17 DD hands. I would get an 11 against a bust and get a A, 2, or 3 every time. What should I do in this circumstance?

Guess I'll get ridiculed again for suggesting u record a bunch of hands to see if it was bad luck or not. That's if u actually care rather than just venting.

At least u might satisfy urself if it really was bad luck or not.

Does knowing it actually was 15 of 17 DD hands imply u actually are recording something or did it just "feel" like 15 of 17? I mean it might take 2-3 hours just to get 17 doubleable hands. (Again a guess).

And how many of those 17 were totals of 11 vs a bust card?

If true, without actually figuring it out, (not sure if I could anyway), it sounds like it might be a pretty rare event.

I mean u don't even know if it's a 6-deck continuous shuffler except, I suppose, they told u.

For some reason, I thought most were 5 decks. But I don't really know.

 

[sledder]

Great Blue Heron Charity Casino, Port Perry, Ontario

6 Decks, Automatic Shuffler
House Stands on Soft 17, allows Double Down After Splits
Pays 3:2 on BJ

Have been playing BJ for 5 years. Don't record DDs - but have a pretty good idea when I have a predetermined back roll and betting strategy. You tend to remember the hands that hurt.

Obviously some venting, who doesn't???

I guess I am a little confused, because it seems according to most people on this site the only way to really make any money at BJ is to count cards. Playing the Basic Strategy will lead to some wins, but in the end you will still get $%&()# over. I realize the house odds etc., but for the small percentage difference you might as well sit at a house game like "Let it Ride" or "4 card Poker". At least if you loss 15 hands out of 20 you could catch a monster and be up money. Not really like that in BJ.

 

[shadroch]

Things have a way of evening out.For every day you lose 15/17 on DDs,there will be a day when you pull a card to make hands 15/17 times.If you are playing correctly,over time your play will bear that out.
But there is no way to count a CSM.
Playing BJ with a CSM still will have a lower house edge than Let it Ride or other house games.

 

[GeorgeD]

I am a Basic Strategy player and have taken a couple of beatings lately that have really rocked my idea of continuing to play blackjack. The casinos in my area (southern Ontario) use 6 deck continuous shufflers and I have recently had an experience where I lost 15 out of 17 DD hands. I would get an 11 against a bust and get a A, 2, or 3 every time. What should I do in this circumstance? I tried moving to different tables, but the debt. just kept piling up.

Aside: How do you guys/girls work any kind of Card Counting System when the cards are re-shuffled after every deal?

BTW I really enjoy this site and value any opinions that are offered.

Thanks again.

If you mean Casino Niagara they are all Continuous Shuffle Machines and counting is useless. Fallsview has some hand dealt autoshuffled games, make sure youknow the diff between CSM and ASM. They sometimes have a fully hand shuffled game, but it usually is a table with a side bet like Lucky Ladies, or pairs (you don't have to playthe side bets).

Better yet, cross the river (where your canadian dollar is worth ALMOST A DOLLAR) .... Seneca Niagara has all hand shuffled 8 deck games. Usually more tables there too since they don't have too many of those damned Spanish 212 tables like Fallsview.

I'll be at Fallsview Friday to play and use my free tickets to Credence Clearwater concert. I'll pass the word if there's anything new there.

Oh yea: for another week or so you can go to CNE Casino http://www.theex.com/ and search "casino"


PS: you're more likely to LOSE on a Double Down, but the extra money when you win makes up more than the difference. Think about it: you only get one card ... where if you have 11, don't double and get a 2 you'd hit again and maybe catch an 7-8.

 

[letsdothis21]

PS: you're more likely to LOSE on a Double Down, but the extra money when you win makes up more than the difference. Think about it: you only get one card ... where if you have 11, don't double and get a 2 you'd hit again and maybe catch an 7-8.

If you're more likely to lose a double down why would you double down in the first place? The reason you double down is to make more money but doubling your bet, you don't win/lose on a double the same amount of money each time (depending on the TC).

 

[GeorgeD]

If you're more likely to lose a double down why would you double down in the first place? The reason you double down is to make more money but doubling your bet, you don't win/lose on a double the same amount of money each time (depending on the TC).

Casino.com explains beter than I can:

<on 11 vs dealer 10> "Doubling down is in fact the recommended play even though it results in winning the hand less frequently then hitting. For example against a 10 you win 56% of the hands by hitting on average and only 54% by doubling. Even though your expectation of winning goes down slightly, doubling is the preferred strategy because when you do win you will win double the original wager. To put it even more succinctly, doubling increases your chances of losing more hands but increases your chances of winning more money."

Would you rather get win $560 (56*10) of 100 11s you hit, or $1080 ($54*$20) of 100 11's doubled? This is why buying a double from a short or timid player can be profitable. I won $50 that way last week,

** PS: your short run mileage may vary.

 

[ChefJJ]

PS: you're more likely to LOSE on a Double Down, but the extra money when you win makes up more than the difference. Think about it: you only get one card ... where if you have 11, don't double and get a 2 you'd hit again and maybe catch an 7-8.

Like George clarified later, that statement was a little misleading. You are giving yourself a slightly smaller chance to win with a double like that, but it is still a move where the advantage is in your favor. The extra money on the line is what makes the net of the play most advantageous.

 

[letsdothis21]

thanks for the clarification George, I interpreted the statement as saying that you lose more double downs than you win, not you lose more double downs compared to just hitting, but I see your point now.

 

[Kasi]

Hey no problem venting as long as u admit it

If u call losing ur money 5-6 times faster in Let It Ride a "small percentage difference", fine.

I call it way beyond huge. And then some.

 

[Kasi]

<on 11 vs dealer 10> "Doubling down is in fact the recommended play even though it results in winning the hand less frequently then hitting. For example against a 10 you win 56% of the hands by hitting on average and only 54% by doubling.

Without saying how often u win by hitting an 11 vs 10, I can say, at least in a 6D game, u win about 51%, lose about 42% and push about 7% of the time.

Anytime ur gonna win more than half the time, I think u want to double lol.

Although there are some doubles that u win less than half the time that are still the right play.

 

[GeorgeD]

Another way to look at doubling
...
According to the wizard of odds, expected return on an 11 hitting VS doubling is as per below (Dealer up card 2 on left to Ace on right)




Hit: 0.2384 0.2603 0.283 0.3073 0.3337 0.2921 0.23 0.1583 0.1195 0.143

Double: 0.4706 0.5178 0.566 0.6147 0.6674 0.4629 0.3507 0.2278 0.1797 0.1091



http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html

 

[Kasi]

Another way to look at doubling

I hope u can reconcile ur earlier 56*10 vs 54*20 win% calculations with the Wiz's EV's of 12% and 18% respectively.

For instance it's easy to see, using the 51,42,7 WLT %'s for doubles that I gave earlier how u will end up $18 up after seeing 11 vs 10 100 times at $1/hd. Win $102, lose $84. Which is 18% of ur original bet, the Wiz's EV. But almost impossible to get to using merely a 54% win% for doubled hands.

And while winning 56% and losing 44% of hitting 11 vs 10 might imply a 12% win rate, it's not really true since pushes are not taken into account. What is true is that u will be $12 ahead after playing and hitting 100 11 vs 10 hands. There are many WLT ratios that will give the same result.

It's the EV that ultimately counts, not win% of number of hands, as I think ur also saying.

And keep in mind the EV is always expressed as a percentage of initial bet, not total bet.

 

[GeorgeD]

I hope u can reconcile ur earlier 56*10 vs 54*20 win% calculations with the Wiz's EV's of 12% and 18% respectively.

For instance it's easy to see, using the 51,42,7 WLT %'s for doubles that I gave earlier how u will end up $18 up after seeing 11 vs 10 100 times at $1/hd. Win $102, lose $84. Which is 18% of ur original bet, the Wiz's EV. But almost impossible to get to using merely a 54% win% for doubled hands.

And while winning 56% and losing 44% of hitting 11 vs 10 might imply a 12% win rate, it's not really true since pushes are not taken into account. What is true is that u will be $12 ahead after playing and hitting 100 11 vs 10 hands. There are many WLT ratios that will give the same result.

It's the EV that ultimately counts, not win% of number of hands, as I think ur also saying.

And keep in mind the EV is always expressed as a percentage of initial bet, not total bet.

On a good month I'm lucky to reconcile my checking account much less reconcile those figures. :grin:

EV is what counts, and yes that is the point. It's hard, though, to explain to someone who laments "seems I always lose when doubling 11 vs 10" by quoting EV. Simpler to explain "you lose more hands but win more money" and the difference on 11 vs 10 is small, but still more money.

I never considered that EV = % of initial bet.