no significant positive count

[sagefr0g]

today i played about an hour and a half. never saw a positive true count worth betting up on.
this was a six deck shoe circa 75%pen. no biggie but it made me wonder.....
i'm curious as to whats the longest anyone has gone with out seeing a worth while positive count?

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[EasyRhino]

I think I've had to wait 45 minutes while backcounting before I found a positive count that actually remained until the end of a hand.

And I'm just a noob.

 

[jimpenn]

I played 15/17 shoes (8D) this past weekend in Hoosier land and saw a RC of +12 twice and it only lasted for one round. I now no why, but usually I'll see a positive count about 20% of the time in a six deck game. Backcounting was useless because no seats at the tables could be found and you can forget about backlining.

 

[dacium]

I found backcounting useless because the casinos are usually to busy and backlining the people are completely hopeless. I was about to backline at +11 once when some idiots split tens against ten and doubled on 9 against 10.

I spent about 6 hours at a casino last week and only got 2 good positive counts.

 

[SystemsTrader]

today i played about an hour and a half. never saw a positive true count worth betting up on.
this was a six deck shoe circa 75%pen. no biggie but it made me wonder.....
i'm curious as to whats the longest anyone has gone with out seeing a worth while positive count?

best regards,
mr fr0g

I've gone 1.5 hrs without seeing a positive count. Yes the pen was lousy but sometimes it just happens. The table you are sitting at or backcounting just goes nowhere for extended periods sometimes. I've even seen it with good pen. But who knows the tables next to you are probably going super positive. This is a huge problem for solo counters, it's just an unfortunate part of the game and it really makes blackjack a game of patience.

 

[Sonny]

The longest I've ever gone was 1.5 hours without a positive count. That's not very long, but considering the fact that it was a DD game with over 75% pen I was quite frustrated.

-Sonny-

 

[Cass]

The longest I've ever gone was 1.5 hours without a positive count. That's not very long, but considering the fact that it was a DD game with over 75% pen I was quite frustrated.

-Sonny-

Crazy! the odds of that must be so slim. It seems like DD has a positive shoe about half the time

 

[ortango]

today i played about an hour and a half. never saw a positive true count worth betting up on.
this was a six deck shoe circa 75%pen. no biggie but it made me wonder.....
i'm curious as to whats the longest anyone has gone with out seeing a worth while positive count?

best regards,
mr fr0g

I think the most 8d shoes I've gone through without anything higher than +1 (therefore no bet raising) is about 7 or 8. An hour and a half, meaning 2 to 3 shoes, is totally normal and happens to me all the time.

 

[ScottH]

Crazy! the odds of that must be so slim. It seems like DD has a positive shoe about half the time

I would think that it would go positive for at least 1 hand more than 50% of the time. In my limited experince it was much more than 50%. But you would have a better idea since you've played more...

 

[Cass]

I would think that it would go positive for at least 1 hand more than 50% of the time. In my limited experince it was much more than 50%. But you would have a better idea since you've played more...

Yeah I would say more than 50% too. Proabably more like 70-80%, which makes it so crazy that it wouldn't go positive for an hour and a half.

 

[Cass]

I think the most 8d shoes I've gone through without anything higher than +1 (therefore no bet raising) is about 7 or 8. An hour and a half, meaning 2 to 3 shoes, is totally normal and happens to me all the time.

Eight deck shoes are painful for counting.

 

[sagefr0g]

even longer wait...

yesterday i played three hours only hit one worth while positive count and it reached that point on the very last round. this particular dealer was giving lousy penetration though. 6decker again. but i did get to bet large on that hand double it and actually won .
Renzey talks in Blackjack Blue Book II of how multiple deck shoes once they reach a positive count with an advantage that they tend to hold that advantage longer. i haven't experienced it that way to often. i usually find that the true count may hit a decent level and then quickly decsend to around zero. i think i get Renzey's point though in that the volatility of the count for single and double deck is greater than that for four decks on up.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[Jeff25]

I was backcounting 8 deck shoes with 80% pen today for around 3 hours. I only placed bets on 3 shoes, only 2 or 3 bets were over the pivot. Alot of the shoes I counted today started off real well, then slowed down and never hit a high enought count for me to wong. Its sad to say, but I dont think I played more then 15 hands.

 

[Cass]

yesterday i played three hours only hit one worth while positive count and it reached that point on the very last round. this particular dealer was giving lousy penetration though. 6decker again. but i did get to bet large on that hand double it and actually won .
Renzey talks in Blackjack Blue Book II of how multiple deck shoes once they reach a positive count with an advantage that they tend to hold that advantage longer. i haven't experienced it that way to often. i usually find that the true count may hit a decent level and then quickly decsend to around zero. i think i get Renzey's point though in that the volatility of the count for single and double deck is greater than that for four decks on up.

best regards,
mr fr0g

In my experience what Renzey said seems to be true. Some of the biggest swings i remember is playing shoes after putting out 10+max bets in a row. Often the count gets higher and higher and just doesnt come down. double deck seems much faster paced, negative the one hand, max bet next hand.

 

[jimpenn]

Jeff, can you recall if the cut cards were placed directly on top of the discards or plugged?

Thanks,

-J.P]

 

[Jeff25]

Jeff, can you recall if the cut cards were placed directly on top of the discards or plugged?

Thanks,

-J.P]

I believe they were plugged, although im not 100% sure.

 

[ortango]

Eight deck shoes are painful for counting.

Agreed, but then the trade off is that I've had many positive situations last four or five decks.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cass View Post
Eight deck shoes are painful for counting.

Agreed, but then the trade off is that I've had many positive situations last four or five decks.

yes this does happen and Renzey talks about it in Blackjack Bluebook II. but what i wonder about is when a positive situation such as you describe presents in that manner do you realize the fruits that said positive situation promises? that is doesn't the fact that the positive situation remains mean that your optimal bets haven't been realized since the count hasn't fallen which if it had fallen meant that those aces and faces came out?

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[ihate17]

Playing a shoe where the count never seems to go down

In my experience what Renzey said seems to be true. Some of the biggest swings i remember is playing shoes after putting out 10+max bets in a row. Often the count gets higher and higher and just doesnt come down. double deck seems much faster paced, negative the one hand, max bet next hand.

One instance where this can happen is playing with bad penetration. They cut off over 2 decks and sometimes most of those aces and faces land up never being dealt. Better the penetration, the less chance of that happening.

The other instance is casino cheating. Take a few aces and faces out of the stack and add a few extra 5's. Positive counts will come much more often and tend to never go back down to 0, since the stack of cards itself is positive. Several years back an Indian casino in California was reported to have done this. I know that several casinos in Eastern Europe are also known to cheat this way.

Of course, on a shoe or two anything can happen, but if you are playing in a casino where it seems every shoe goes positive and never evens out before the cut card, you may need to play elsewhere.

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

I've heard another, similar way of casino cheating is a "short deck" or "short shoe", I forget which, in which the shoe is intentionally shuffled with a preponderance of high cards on one side which is then cut out of play.

Like any other trick shuffling, it's still f'in magic as far as I'm concerned.