Noob Intro, Ton O Questions

[vonQuux]

Greetings,

New board member here. Not exactly a gambling sort of person ("it's for people who are bad at math") but the notion that one can -- without cheating -- turn the tables in favor of the player -- intrigue me as an intellectual exercise.

Well, winning a few bucks wouldn't suck either, but...

I've almost got the BS down cold (for 4d+, dealer stands on soft 17), still have a long way to go on the counting itself. Over the past few days I've been devouring everything I can on the subject but I still have a couple of questions. Please, no flames, some of these questions/comments might be extremely stupid but I've tried to find answers and come up short on a few in particular.

----

* I've read that playing Basic Strategy (BS) is the "correct" way to play in all circumstances but wouldn't true count guide my play? For example, if the true count is quite high and I've got a hard sixteen vs. a dealer's T, might I want to reconsider a hit (which BS dictates) since I'm more likely to pull a ten?

* If casinos actually wanted to get rid of card counters, why not just install continuous shuffling machines at all tables? My guess is that they probably make a nice bit of change from bad counters and only want to toss the ones who win but is this correct?

* Has anyone tried a counting system that only tracks X, A?

For example, I should expect to see twenty of these every deck so if I'm playing a six-deck shoe, I'm about 50% penetrated into that shoe and my count (of X, A) is 50. That means I'm ten X+A cards short in the remaining shoe. Divide that by the remaining decks left (three) and that gives me a TC of 3.3.

The advantage here being a simpler count with perhaps more brain-power allocated to things like counting aces seperate, for example.

I should point out that I'm not at ALL claiming I've discovered something useful here. I'm certain I'm not the first person to have thought of this, I just want to know why it's not useful.

* I'm not looking to clobber any casinos but I would like to play a few hours at $5-10 minimum tables and have a better-than-even chance of going home with more than I started with. I'm guessing minor action like this won't cause anything but yawns from the pit bosses but has anyone established a threshol for how one can play vs. how much heat one attracts?

* While I'm on that subject, what bet spreads are necessary to eke out a profit over the long-term? 1:3? 1:4? 1:10? How does one determine when to raise the bet and by how much?

* What are these "indices" I keep hearing about?

----

Thanks much in advance for your answers! Maybe I'll get up the cajones to break my own counting cherry in a real casino this spring...

vonQuux

 

[Canceler]

This:

* What are these "indices" I keep hearing about?

is the answer to this:

* I've read that playing Basic Strategy (BS) is the "correct" way to play in all circumstances but wouldn't true count guide my play? For example, if the true count is quite high and I've got a hard sixteen vs. a dealer's T, might I want to reconsider a hit (which BS dictates) since I'm more likely to pull a ten?

As you've guessed, at some counts it's better to play something other than basic strategy. These are called index plays.

 

[la_dee_daa]

Greetings,

New board member here. Not exactly a gambling sort of person ("it's for people who are bad at math") but the notion that one can -- without cheating -- turn the tables in favor of the player -- intrigue me as an intellectual exercise.

Well, winning a few bucks wouldn't suck either, but...

I've almost got the BS down cold (for 4d+, dealer stands on soft 17), still have a long way to go on the counting itself. Over the past few days I've been devouring everything I can on the subject but I still have a couple of questions. Please, no flames, some of these questions/comments might be extremely stupid but I've tried to find answers and come up short on a few in particular.

----

* I've read that playing Basic Strategy (BS) is the "correct" way to play in all circumstances but wouldn't true count guide my play? For example, if the true count is quite high and I've got a hard sixteen vs. a dealer's T, might I want to reconsider a hit (which BS dictates) since I'm more likely to pull a ten?

* If casinos actually wanted to get rid of card counters, why not just install continuous shuffling machines at all tables? My guess is that they probably make a nice bit of change from bad counters and only want to toss the ones who win but is this correct?

* Has anyone tried a counting system that only tracks X, A?

For example, I should expect to see twenty of these every deck so if I'm playing a six-deck shoe, I'm about 50% penetrated into that shoe and my count (of X, A) is 50. That means I'm ten X+A cards short in the remaining shoe. Divide that by the remaining decks left (three) and that gives me a TC of 3.3.

The advantage here being a simpler count with perhaps more brain-power allocated to things like counting aces seperate, for example.

I should point out that I'm not at ALL claiming I've discovered something useful here. I'm certain I'm not the first person to have thought of this, I just want to know why it's not useful.

* I'm not looking to clobber any casinos but I would like to play a few hours at $5-10 minimum tables and have a better-than-even chance of going home with more than I started with. I'm guessing minor action like this won't cause anything but yawns from the pit bosses but has anyone established a threshol for how one can play vs. how much heat one attracts?

* While I'm on that subject, what bet spreads are necessary to eke out a profit over the long-term? 1:3? 1:4? 1:10? How does one determine when to raise the bet and by how much?

* What are these "indices" I keep hearing about?

----

Thanks much in advance for your answers! Maybe I'll get up the cajones to break my own counting cherry in a real casino this spring...

vonQuux

il answear a few.

you do change bs depending on the count like when depending what system you use you would stand on 16 v10 in a positive count. the 18 main ones are the illustrious 18. these are those "indices"

continuous shuffling machines- big ploppy whales won't play them but if casino's could get them in without losing these players they would. they also cost 15 grand i think..

the X A tracking system is pretty weak and won't give you much advantage from what i have heard.

heat depends on where you play.

a spread from 1-12 can be good.

usually something like true count <=1 1 unit 2-2 units 3- 4 units 4- 6 units 5- 12 units. try splitting the units into 2 hands.

what count are u planning on useing hi low? KO?

!!!!!!!!think about your bankroll and be prepared from some flux in it. i recently started hitting the casinos and in 3 sessions for at most 4 hours of actuall play with 10 min bets with 1-10 spread and am down $850 all from very high counts. Major important thing to be awear of if you are getting into counting. Not everyone will turn $1000 into $10 000 overnight there are the untold stories about losing everything, i assume.

 

[EasyRhino]

- many gamblers, including high rollers, just don't like CSMs

- There is an "ace ten front count". It's super simple, designed for people who want to count, but don't want to try (see also Speed Count, OPP, etc). Not generally recommended, as the edge is small and the variance is big. Generally recommend sticking with a count that tracks both high and low cards.

- If you're playing a 6d/8d shoe, and you're not avoiding all negative counts, then pretty much start with a 12x spread and go as high as the place will stand. Avoiding negative counts (backcounting) can be exceedingly useful.

- And one note about index play. It's basically another memorization task (like basic strategy). The "Illustrius 18" includes the most common and usefulu plays. But it's important to not "guess" at these, as it can lead you to playing like a crackhead. Indices aren't required, get those nailed down after you get basic, and after you get betting down.

 

[sagefr0g]

Greetings,

New board member here. Not exactly a gambling sort of person ("it's for people who are bad at math") but the notion that one can -- without cheating -- turn the tables in favor of the player -- intrigue me as an intellectual exercise.

Well, winning a few bucks wouldn't suck either, but...

I've almost got the BS down cold (for 4d+, dealer stands on soft 17), still have a long way to go on the counting itself. Over the past few days I've been devouring everything I can on the subject but I still have a couple of questions. Please, no flames, some of these questions/comments might be extremely stupid but I've tried to find answers and come up short on a few in particular.

----

bs is real, real important so good start and it sounds like your on the right track.

* I've read that playing Basic Strategy (BS) is the "correct" way to play in all circumstances but wouldn't true count guide my play? For example, if the true count is quite high and I've got a hard sixteen vs. a dealer's T, might I want to reconsider a hit (which BS dictates) since I'm more likely to pull a ten?

exactly, and that is what indices and basic strategy departures are about and short cuts to the departures such as the illustrious 18. so you are learning and understanding and asking the right questions.

* If casinos actually wanted to get rid of card counters, why not just install continuous shuffling machines at all tables? My guess is that they probably make a nice bit of change from bad counters and only want to toss the ones who win but is this correct?

for one thing real genuine blackjack is a marketable game. some one is going to want to offer it. it's a money maker. csm blackjack is a differant game. marketable but not more so than real blackjack.
and yes that's how we view it that casino's probably figure they are making money off of bad counters, probably more than pure basic strategy players.

* Has anyone tried a counting system that only tracks X, A?

For example, I should expect to see twenty of these every deck so if I'm playing a six-deck shoe, I'm about 50% penetrated into that shoe and my count (of X, A) is 50. That means I'm ten X+A cards short in the remaining shoe. Divide that by the remaining decks left (three) and that gives me a TC of 3.3.

The advantage here being a simpler count with perhaps more brain-power allocated to things like counting aces seperate, for example.

I should point out that I'm not at ALL claiming I've discovered something useful here. I'm certain I'm not the first person to have thought of this, I just want to know why it's not useful.

yes, you'll find out about a count introduced by Fred Renzey in his book Blackjack Blue Book II called the ace/ten front count. but it's not necessarily used to save brain power for keeping a separte count of aces.

* I'm not looking to clobber any casinos but I would like to play a few hours at $5-10 minimum tables and have a better-than-even chance of going home with more than I started with. I'm guessing minor action like this won't cause anything but yawns from the pit bosses but has anyone established a threshol for how one can play vs. how much heat one attracts?

yeah pretty much nickle tables are low heat tables. but differant casino's have differant sweat levels and you want to get a feel for the joints that you frequent. there is some software called Casino Verite CVBJ that trys to categorize and quantify levels of heat and factors regarding it. heat is much discussed in these forums. search around.

*while I'm on that subject, what bet spreads are necessary to eke out a profit over the long-term? 1:3? 1:4? 1:10? How does one determine when to raise the bet and by how much?

depends on the game your playing and the count you are using as well as your bankroll and the amount of risk that your willing to assume. but for example around a 1:10 spread for a six deck game. you determine when to raise your bets according to the true count that you've accertained. where you'll be making optimal bets proportionally according to the true count.

* What are these "indices" I keep hearing about?

remmember above about the basic strategy departures? the particular departures are made at various indices which are true counts similar to how we make differant bets at various true counts. the true count gives us an idea of the richness or poorness of the high cards to low cards left in the pack to be dealt so that we know when our chances for getting a blackjack or more successful double downs shall occur and when it is better to deviate from basic strategy for certain key plays at certain true counts.

----

Thanks much in advance for your answers! Maybe I'll get up the cajones to break my own counting cherry in a real casino this spring...

vonQuux

yeah have fun.

 

[vonQuux]

il answear a few.

you do change bs depending on the count like when depending what system you use you would stand on 16 v10 in a positive count. the 18 main ones are the illustrious 18. these are those "indices"

Ohhhh. OK.

continuous shuffling machines- big ploppy whales won't play them but if casino's could get them in without losing these players they would. they also cost 15 grand i think..

"Big ploppy whale." I like that...

the X A tracking system is pretty weak and won't give you much advantage from what i have heard.

I have no doubt you're right but I wasn't even aware there was such a system. Does it have a name? I'd like to look into it although I plan on sticking with the one I'm currently using (HI-LO).

heat depends on where you play.

I plan on playing Foxwoods since it's relatively local.

a spread from 1-12 can be good. usually something like true count <=1 1 unit 2-2 units 3- 4 units 4- 6 units 5- 12 units. try splitting the units into 2 hands.

I'm not sure what that last part means ("try splitting...")...

what count are u planning on useing hi low? KO?

HI-LO.

!!!!!!!!think about your bankroll and be prepared from some flux in it. i recently started hitting the casinos and in 3 sessions for at most 4 hours of actuall play with 10 min bets with 1-10 spread and am down $850 all from very high counts. Major important thing to be awear of if you are getting into counting. Not everyone will turn $1000 into $10 000 overnight there are the untold stories about losing everything, i assume.

Yeah, I've been spending a lot of time learning about standard deviation, ROR, etc., and I've braced myself for the unlikely (but entirely possible) loss of the entire bankroll.

Thanks a ton for the reply!

While I'm here, if you could suggest one book for the n00b who has learned BS and counting flawlessly, what would it be?

Thanks!
vQ

 

[vonQuux]

- many gamblers, including high rollers, just don't like CSMs

Interesting...

- There is an "ace ten front count". It's super simple, designed for people who want to count, but don't want to try (see also Speed Count, OPP, etc). Not generally recommended, as the edge is small and the variance is big. Generally recommend sticking with a count that tracks both high and low cards.

OK.

- If you're playing a 6d/8d shoe, and you're not avoiding all negative counts, then pretty much start with a 12x spread and go as high as the place will stand.

I think what you're saying here is I should vary my bet from 1x to 12x depending on the TC but possibly even higher if I don't attract any heat?

Avoiding negative counts (backcounting) can be exceedingly useful.

Not being a regular casino-goer, I'm wondering how much you can do this without making the employees suspicious. Will my extremely low stakes provide me any cover here?

- And one note about index play. It's basically another memorization task (like basic strategy). The "Illustrius 18" includes the most common and usefulu plays. But it's important to not "guess" at these, as it can lead you to playing like a crackhead. Indices aren't required, get those nailed down after you get basic, and after you get betting down.

I've resolved to not even step foot into a casino until I can go through ten 6d shoes while making no more than one BS or count error. Maybe that will never happen but if it doesn't, I simply won't go.

Thanks for the reply, Rhino!

vQ

 

[vonQuux]

bs is real, real important so good start and it sounds like your on the right track.

Boy I'm glad to hear someone say that. =)

yes, you'll find out about a count introduced by Fred Renzey in his book Blackjack Blue Book II called the ace/ten front count. but it's not necessarily used to save brain power for keeping a separte count of aces.

OK, thanks. I think I'll just stick with HI-LO. I do it super slowly now but I expect after a month or two of tooling around with a deck in my spare time, I'll get it down. I think what really throws me is that the low cards make the count go up while the high cards make the count go down. It's counter-intuitive so I spend most of my time trying to figure out which way I'm supposed to go.

yeah pretty much nickle tables are low heat tables. but differant casino's have differant sweat levels and you want to get a feel for the joints that you frequent. there is some software called Casino Verite CVBJ that trys to categorize and quantify levels of heat and factors regarding it. heat is much discussed in these forums. search around.

Unfortunately I'm on a MacBook. Maybe this will be a good excuse to dual boot...

remmember above about the basic strategy departures? the particular departures are made at various indices which are true counts similar to how we make differant bets at various true counts. the true count gives us an idea of the richness or poorness of the high cards to low cards left in the pack to be dealt so that we know when our chances for getting a blackjack or more successful double downs shall occur and when it is better to deviate from basic strategy for certain key plays at certain true counts.

Excellent, thanks for the reply!

vQ

 

[la_dee_daa]

Not being a regular casino-goer, I'm wondering how much you can do this without making the employees suspicious. Will my extremely low stakes provide me any cover here?

i am not a casino-goer either but from my experience you aren't going to get the pit boss asking why you are just looking at the blackjack table. I see regular players with no strategy watch the table all the time over your shoulder to see if they feel like playing or if it is a lucky table. You can even sit there not playing if you really want to not lose your seat or even if you just don't feel like standing. Just have something to do, like fiddel with your cell phone texting and what not, or if you are lossing and didn't buy in for much and have lost for what ever you bought in for dealers will "understand" (they have for me). Better yet if you have a friend who just plays for fun you can just talk and not play and place a few bets when the shoe goes positive. or just stand watching other games keeping an eye on the blackjack table. I find if you can get onto a talkative table you get to reason everything with the flow of the cards taking the dealers bust card and what not. This is what i tend to do with my minimal experience at the lower limit tables. but on the other hand i have lost so far hum...... thats probably the best cover.

I'm not sure what that last part means ("try splitting...")...

like instead of playing one hand of $100 you play 2 hands or $50. will reduce your ror for the hand by what i remember 1.4444444444444 so its ror would be the same as a single hand of 100/1.444444 or $69 is from the ror perspective. someone correct me if im wrong here.

 

[QFIT]

* Has anyone tried a counting system that only tracks X, A?

Yes, it's called the QWIK count. It's extremely weak.

 

[EasyRhino]

I think what you're saying here is I should vary my bet from 1x to 12x depending on the TC but possibly even higher if I don't attract any heat?

Yep. For instance, bet $5 at neutral/negative counts, and up to $60-100 at your "max bet" level.

BTW, if your bankroll is limited, how "unlikely" does the chance of losing it all seem if you get an inevitable unlucky streak of losing max bets?

As for backcounting, you mentioned Foxwoods. I haven't been there, but the place is huge. You could play a few hands at one table, and then play a few other hand at another pit which is in a different ZIP code. That's the ideal sort of place to backcount. (unless they prohibit midshoe entry, or it's just pathologically crowded).