Observations on books and a few Qs

[BeeJay]

I just finished Professional BJ by Wong, KO by Vancura/Fuchs, and BJ Bluebook II by Renzy.

Hopefully I learned something from all 3 but my favorite was definitely BJBII. KO ranks just a tad below it IMO in terms of ease of use. I do like the thought of counting all 2s versus just the black ones, but I prefer the positive counts in BJBBII (I know, KO can be adjusted to give pos counts too but then you need to change all the tables etc). I also thought the layout of BJBBII was my far the easiest to navigate as well as understand. I thought PJ was the hardest to understand. I can see how it would be a great resource once an AP was very proficient but not as easy for a beginner. Especially, if the beginner doesn't know what kind of games they will be playing.

So, my first question is to Fred- why not just count all the 2s and raise the corresponding numbers two from their current values?. I guess I'll get used to counting just the black 2s but in practicing I have been off a few times in my count and I think it is because I am pairing red twos against face cards in an effort to speed up my counting.

Anyway, my main questions concern BR, ROR etc. What is considered a BR?. Is that the money you feel comfortable risking over the long run?. It certainly isn't the money you take for say an entire weekend. As a hypothetical, say I decide to start with $5k as a BR. A couple of years later I lose it all but by then I have more money in the bank from a nice job and decide to risk another 5K. Does that mean my initial BR is really 10K?. I would like to start by betting $10 with a spread to $100. Is that too much?.

How much should I expect to take on a trip if I am expecting to bet 10-100?
I plan on wonging when possible and will probably play 6D, H17, 3/2 BJ, any DD plus r/s, with decent pen.

 

[Renzey]

I just finished Professional BJ by Wong, KO by Vancura/Fuchs, and BJ Bluebook II by Renzy.
Hopefully I learned something from all 3 but my favorite was definitely BJBII.
So, my first question is to Fred- why not just count all the 2s and raise the corresponding numbers two from their current values?.
What is considered a BR?. I would like to start by betting $10 with a spread to $100. Is that too much for a 5K bankroll?.
How much should I expect to take on a trip if I am expecting to bet 10-100?
I plan on wonging when possible and will probably play 6D, H17, 3/2 BJ, any DD plus r/s, with decent pen.

If you count only the black deuces, the running count needs to rise 11 points above its intitial starting count at any point of the shoe to give you roughly a half percent advantage. If you count all the deuces, ala KO, your running count would need to rise 13 points if you're 1 deck into the shoe, but 19 points if you're 4 decks in to give you that same half percent advantage. Unbalancing a count system by a half rank makes smoother, more consistent use of why you unbalance a count in the first place. Other KISS users report no difficulty at all in ignoring the red deuces, because that's the way they learned.

Sims I've run and plugged into Auston's BlackJack Risk Manager say that for a long term bankroll (300 hours), you need 93 ten-unit bets spreading 1-to-10 in a typical shoe game to have a 5% risk of ruin.
On a 25 playing hour trip, you need 33 top bets, and for a 4 hour session you need 14 top bets to have the same margins of safety.

 

[Sonny]

What is considered a BR?. Is that the money you feel comfortable risking over the long run?

Yes, although you will need to liquidate a big enough portion of it to be able to withstand the short-term swings of the game. The majority of your bankroll does not necessarily need to be in cash or even immediately available.

It certainly isn't the money you take for say an entire weekend.

Right. You’ll only need to bring enough money to last for that weekend. Some people call that their “trip bankroll” which is just a smaller portion of their full bankroll. Some people also divide that into a “session bankroll” for each casino, but that is not necessary IMHO.

As a hypothetical, say I decide to start with $5k as a BR. A couple of years later I lose it all but by then I have more money in the bank from a nice job and decide to risk another 5K. Does that mean my initial BR is really 10K?

Yes IF you can guarantee that you will save that extra $5k. It gets a little tricky when you start dealing with renewable bankroll formulas and cumulative RORs, but there is nothing wrong with playing that way as long as you do it properly. And even if you don’t do it properly, you just have to wait until you save up another bankroll again.

How much should I expect to take on a trip if I am expecting to bet 10-100?

That will depend on a lot of things like what your EV and SD are and how much of a trip ROR you are willing to accept. If you bring enough cash to cover 2 SDs you will probably be alright.

-Sonny-

 

[BeeJay]

Do I keep playing when losing?

OK- I have another BR question.

Say I have a BR of 5k and I plan on $50 as a max bet. That's 100 max bets. Then I decide to take 1k on a weekend trip. I would like to spread $5-$50. Is that considered overbetting ?.

Now, say I lose it all that weekend. Is it advisable to keep trying and hit the ATM for more cash or should I simply wait for my next trip?.

My worry would be that I wasn't doing something right and would be jeapordizing more money versus attributing it to variance and knowing I was due to win it back.

 

[Sonny]

Say I have a BR of 5k and I plan on $50 as a max bet. That's 100 max bets. Then I decide to take 1k on a weekend trip. I would like to spread $5-$50. Is that considered overbetting ?.

No because you have the $5k bankroll to back up those bets. It may not be in your pocket at that moment, but you’ve got it.

Now, say I lose it all that weekend. Is it advisable to keep trying and hit the ATM for more cash or should I simply wait for my next trip?.

Not if the ATM charges 3% for each withdrawal! :grin: But that choice is up to you. Many people will continue playing as long as they have a good game. Others may call it quits for the night for emotional reasons. The choice is up to you.

My worry would be that I wasn't doing something right and would be jeapordizing more money versus attributing it to variance and knowing I was due to win it back.

If you aren’t confident in your skills then you should take it slowly. Practice at home until you can play BJ in your sleep. Hang out in casinos and backcount the tables until you get used to the environment. If you’re going to put $5k of your money at risk you should feel pretty confident by the time the chips hit the felt.

-Sonny-

 

[BeeJay]

Comfort levels

I am very comfortable in a casino. I can play BJ in my sleep (in fact I think I did just that on my last trip <vbg>). I played many hours (30?) just a few weeks ago and have been playing very proficient BS for years.

I also feel like I count backcount pretty well since I've gotten to the point of being able to do 2 decks in just over a minute (and that's with me dealing. I'm pretty sure it would be faster without having to physically deal).

My problem is a occasionally count a red 2 as a +1 but I hope that goes away with more practice. I also occasionally mess up a bit when the count vacillates quickly between pos and neg.

Where I don't have a good handle on things is with the indices. I understand them conceptually and I think most of my guesses are pretty good as for when to vary BS. My next goal is to get more comfortable with those.

 

[sagefr0g]

OK- I have another BR question.

Say I have a BR of 5k and I plan on $50 as a max bet. That's 100 max bets. Then I decide to take 1k on a weekend trip. I would like to spread $5-$50. Is that considered overbetting ?

probably be best to have 7K. 5K would really be pushing it unless your bankroll in fairly replenishible.

Now, say I lose it all that weekend. Is it advisable to keep trying and hit the ATM for more cash or should I simply wait for my next trip?.

My worry would be that I wasn't doing something right and would be jeapordizing more money versus attributing it to variance and knowing I was due to win it back.

theoretically you should be able to play on and on. the question is though are you capable of dealing with it emotionally? and like you say it could be possible that you are doing something incorrectly. if that were the case it would be benificial to take a breather and bone up on your game in the mean time. it's often helpful when faced with a difficult task to break it up in small pieces. gives you time to regain your composure and look objectively at your actions so that you can start again fresh and prepared. not just courage is required in this game but patience also.