Opinion on game/spread?

[Lonesome Gambler]

This is a somewhat marginal game, and I don't have access to a sim right now, so I was wondering if anyone had any particular opinions on this strategy. Sims would be super-useful, but any advice would be appreciated. Not sure if this should go here in the card counting forum. Sorry!

6D 75% S17 DAS RA4 $5/250
Hi-Lo Ill18

I'm planning on using a replenishable bank with $420/month "trip" bankroll. I know this only gives me $5000 total BR, but I guess I'll just have to cross my fingers and hope for a nice positive swing right off the bat. The idea is to play $420 a month, wait until the next month if I bust out, and carry over any winnings into the following month if I hit a good run. The spread here is close to 1/4 Kelly, with a few changes made for simplicity and a larger spread in very favorable counts.

Wong in +1, out -1
0-1: $5
+2-3: $10
+4-5: $25
+6-7: $40
+8: $60

I should consistently be able to play a table with only 2 or 3 other players, but there is only 1 small pit, so I probably won't be playing a huge number of hands. The goal here is to really just get some solid practice in, while still playing a +EV game.

 

[moo321]

That's probably not aggressive enough. If your spread is that small, you should be hitting max bet at +5. I wouldn't have my max bet at +8 unless I was spreading 1-40 or so.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm

I'd recommend:

TC below +1: $5
1-2: $10
2-3: $20-25
3-4: $30-40
4-5: $45-60

I'd recommend going to two hands as well.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Edit: So, when you say two hands, do you mean 2 hands for all counts, or spread to 2X6 units for the max bet, or 2x12 units, and if so, at what count? I know this decreases variance (or at least, that's the impression I'm under), but what other benefits are there to spreading to two hands? Thanks!

 

[Unshake]

I'm sort of confused. Basically you're going to have a stop loss of $420 each month? Meaning that in any given 30 day period if you lose $420 or more you will stop playing until the next month? This hurts the SCORE of your game also if you are unwilling/unable to finish out a shoe once you lose $420, as this may happen in advantageous counts.

That game isn't terrible, decent rules and playable pen. Is surrender offered?

Spreading to two hands when others are at the table allows you to 'eat up' more of the good cards in high counts and get a larger number of hands in when the count is good. You can bet more without increasing you RoR.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

That's probably not aggressive enough. If your spread is that small, you should be hitting max bet at +5. I wouldn't have my max bet at +8 unless I was spreading 1-40 or so.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm

I'd recommend:

TC below +1: $5
1-2: $10
2-3: $20-25
3-4: $30-40
4-5: $45-60

I'd recommend going to two hands as well.

I'd second this spread, and also, maybe bite the bullet for a month and wait until you have $500-1000 in your pocket before your first trip. Nothing's worse than having to walk away from a good count or place a tiny bet in a good count because you don't have any more money on you.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Good advice. I'll wait until I have 2 of those months ready to go. Thanks, fellows!

 

[MoneyPlays]

Surrender?

I'm sort of confused. Basically you're going to have a stop loss of $420 each month? Meaning that in any given 30 day period if you lose $420 or more you will stop playing until the next month? This hurts the SCORE of your game also if you are unwilling/unable to finish out a shoe once you lose $420, as this may happen in advantageous counts.

That game isn't terrible, decent rules and playable pen. Is surrender offered?

Spreading to two hands when others are at the table allows you to 'eat up' more of the good cards in high counts and get a larger number of hands in when the count is good. You can bet more without increasing you RoR.

So is surrender available on this game? I'm hoping to play this same game in a couple of months with the LS option. How much would this add to EV?

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

No surrender, unfortunately. Like I said, the game is marginal, but still beatable.

I missed the reply regarding the "stop loss." Naturally, this will hurt my EV significantly if I run into some high counts, double-downs, or splits after a bad run, but this is the only way I can think of to get in some solid "practice" sessions while building a BR from the ground up. If I get lucky enough to hit some + variance right away, I can add initial wins to the next month's allowance. The stop loss is simply because I don't have a tangible, fixed BR.