opinions on big luck

J

jigsawdaddy

New Member
2 months ago I began going to the casino to play blackjack( I had been practicing many many hours at my house with friends with fairly balanced results). I had memorized basic strategy and felt fairly comfortable with it. I had also read many books on blackjack and practiced (lightly) counting (Hi Lo). My first venture to the casino I brought $200 and played ten dollar tables. I must have hit a lucky run because I left up $1600. The next few times I went I bounced back and forth a few hundred dollars but at the end of the month I was at around $400. I began a commitment to myself that if I was up and felt like my luck was turning I'd leave. I had a ten day period where I left up 19 times consecutively. I had gone from reds, to greens, to blacks, and had walked away at the end of the week around $14,000 up. Amateur-ishly at the time I thought I had some type of understanding of what I had done and proceeded to play big bets and lose probably half the money in the next two weeks. I then set up a $1000 bankroll to use and began to play reds again. I walked for a week everyday u around $500 on average. Then I began going with friends to the casino and playing big again and lost all of it. Was this all beginners luck? Is it possible to catch that many visits and tables and hands that are that hot? I'm looking for opinions as to what may have happened because I am interested in still playing but the losing cycles seem to be very heavy. Is there any way to limit the losses? Any help or advice is appreciated. Thanks.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
In a word: OVERBETTING!

jigsawdaddy said:
2 months ago I began going to the casino to play blackjack( I had been practicing many many hours at my house with friends with fairly balanced results). I had memorized basic strategy and felt fairly comfortable with it. I had also read many books on blackjack and practiced (lightly) counting (Hi Lo). My first venture to the casino I brought $200 and played ten dollar tables. I must have hit a lucky run because I left up $1600. The next few times I went I bounced back and forth a few hundred dollars but at the end of the month I was at around $400. I began a commitment to myself that if I was up and felt like my luck was turning I'd leave. I had a ten day period where I left up 19 times consecutively. I had gone from reds, to greens, to blacks, and had walked away at the end of the week around $14,000 up. Amateur-ishly at the time I thought I had some type of understanding of what I had done and proceeded to play big bets and lose probably half the money in the next two weeks. I then set up a $1000 bankroll to use and began to play reds again. I walked for a week everyday u around $500 on average. Then I began going with friends to the casino and playing big again and lost all of it. Was this all beginners luck? Is it possible to catch that many visits and tables and hands that are that hot? I'm looking for opinions as to what may have happened because I am interested in still playing but the losing cycles seem to be very heavy. Is there any way to limit the losses? Any help or advice is appreciated. Thanks.
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Basically the swings up/down seem big and violent because you are overbetting relative to your BR. When you were at 14k, that was ONLY enough to bet green. You need to learn proper bet-sizing. zg
 
Scorcho

Scorcho

Active Member
not really beginners luck, just luck

unfortunatly that's how casinos get their money back. Someone walks in and wins a ton semi-consistently and thinks they can do it everytime, then they give it all back. You just experienced a positive upswing coupled with overbetting your bankroll which made your wins seem alot greater than they were. I think everyone needs to go through that experience at least once to see just how the casinos really do make their money. Like ZG said the only way to stop such horrendous swings is to have a huge bankroll. I think that about $10,000 is the suggested start amount for playing greens. (Though it's been awhile so I may be off on that number). Also the game that you play is very important, your advantage is dependent on the number of decks used and the rules of the game. Blackjack is definitly worth studying if you plan on making a living out of it, it's very difficult, stressful, and at times, terribly boring to do, but there is some money to be made in it, and made steadily.
 
C

carp

New Member
Bankroll Management.

Is there a resource for BR amount needed to be plaing reds, greens, and up? I'll be new to counting and want to be playing what my BR warrants. I took a quick look but haven't been able to dig anything up.
 
D

double4more

Member
Sounds like just pure luck to me as well. Playing just pure basic strategy will make you a loser in the long run, just at a slow pace. You should have gotten that from the books you read. You also claim to have counted with hi-lo - and lightly, I might add. There isn't any "lightly counting" in my humble opinion. Either you are going to count correctly, or you aren't really counting. And if you have lost the count when playing, I would advise that you take a restroom break or use some other excuse to get out of the game.

Also, as stated by others, you were grossly overbetting. $1,000 is not nearly enough. Even $14,000 is small and should really keep you as a red chipper (if you are playing a shoe game), IMO. Bankroll should depend on the type of game you are playing, i.e. how many decks, what your unit bet is, the level risk you are willing to assume, etc. 1000 units is generally accepted as total bankroll you should have. So, if you are a $10 minimum bettor, you would need $10,000. However, if you are able to replenish it weekly or monthly, you can work with a fraction of that for your trip bankroll. Again, it depends on the game that you play. For instance, if you were to play the tough games in Atlantic City, you would probably want around $14k-$15k to play the $10 min shoe games instead of just $10k. There is a lot of variance in the game. That is why you need a large bankroll for such small bets. (That is also why you won with such a small amount to begin with.)
 
J

jigsawdaddy

New Member
What I meant by counting "lightly" was that I had only practiced counting for a short period of time. I am not a counter I am still fairly new to the game and am working on it. I guess this was the lesson I needed to learn in order to go back and discipline myself much more in the game. Like I said I naively thought I knew something because I was winning when I really didn't, I was just lucky. It just seemed strange to me to have that much successive luck, but I know now from your posts that it really isn't that strange of a fluctuation.
 
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