OPPPS! I did it again.

[cardcounter0]

On the way back from the casino, I stopped by the $3/$6 game. They had two tables of $10/$20, three tables of $3/$6 and an Ohmaha Hi Game going.

Played for over 5 hours at $3/$6, but call it 6 hours.
$172 profit.

Maybe some mathematical models need to be adjusted. I just wish I was a better player at this low limit stuff.
:laugh:

I have logged 10 hours of play for $540 or so in profit. What is my hourly BB/hr win rate, and how many SDs am I above what I "supposedly" should be winning?

Did I remember to recommend "Small Stakes Hold 'em: Winning Big With Expert Play" by Mason Malmuth, Ed Miller, David Sklansky ?

UPDATE: Went back Sunday to play in a $50 entry fee tournament they were going to have, but there wasn't enough interest, not enough tourney players to get it off the ground. So I played $3/$6 for an hour while they took their time figuiring out they weren't going to run the Tourney.

First two hands I played, my top pair on the flop got run down by an overcard on the river, pot went to people who had no draws, no nothing, and called all the way to the river to hit their 3-outer overcard.

That and Blinds and I was down about $50. Then I got AA in mid position. UTG raised to $6, I made it $9, and probably about 5 or 6 went to flop. Flop came Q high, with two hearts. UTG bet into me, I raised. All fold except UTG who calls. Blank turn and Blank River, UTG check/called all the way, shows QJo and my AA is good.

Since they weren't going to run the tourney, I racked up and left with $20 profit..

I have now logged 11 hours of play for $560 or so in profit. What is my hourly BB/hr win rate, and how many SDs am I above what I "supposedly" should be winning?

UPDATE ON THE UPDATE: Later Sunday evening, Two friends came over to the house. Wanted to know the location of the game. I drove my car there and they followed. As long as I was there I sat down and played a few hands. I was there for over 1/2 hour, but probably not 1 hour. Another $74 profit cashed out.

I have now logged 12 hours of play for $630 or so in profit. What is my hourly BB/hr win rate, and how many SDs am I above what I "supposedly" should be winning?

 

[cardcounter0]

3 more seesions -- And a NEAT hand.

Weekend October 3rd-October 5th

While waiting for a seat at higher limit games played 3/6 limit Texas Hold Em
for 3 sessions: One early Saturday afternoon at Casino A, late Saturday night at Casino B, and then Sunday Evening at Casino A. (rake is more reasonable at the casinos then the charity games - $4 max, although I always tip the dealer $1 every pot I win, and at the end of the session toke the dealer my odd $1 chips to cash out an even amount).

Session 1: 4 hours $110 profit
Session 2: 2 hours $100 profit (makes up for the $90 I lost playing 10/20)
Session 3: 2 hours $130 profit (after only winning $10 at 10/20)

I have now played 20 hours for $970 profit. Could the recent experiments at CERN explain this mathematically impossible feat? Can anyone calculate my BB/hr win rate?


NEATO HAND OF THE WEEKEND:

About 8 limpers. SB and BB are drinking bud lights and bragging about how many hours they had spent at Hooters before they came to casino.

Guy to my right is about to put me on tilt: He takes the Loooongest time to look at his cards preflop, and then limps in. Every hand. He has not folded. Why do you need to look at your cards, you limp in every hand. Why look for soooo long, we already know you are going to limp in like you do every freaking hand.

Anyways, I have to wait for this clown every hand before I can act, and there is a woman to my left who loves to slow roll the nuts and is pretty much accumulating all the chips from the other idiots, when she is not slow rolling she is pulling every angle shot known to man, including trying to grab the button and skip me and save her from posting a small blind, like no one is going to notice that one. (Sorry, honey, I'm not one of the drunk guys from Hooters).

So, Like I said before, About 8 limpers, I look down from the button and have 7 clubs, 8 clubs. RAISE! Like I have said nearly every hand I have played. Slow roll lady calls, drunk BB 3 bets, many callers, guy to my right takes a loooooong look at his cards again and calls, like he has called every other raise, and I cap.

Capped preflop, 8 to the flop, flop comes Q 5 6 all different suits. Some donk bets, I raise, all fold except slow roll lady and the donk who just call naturally.

Turn comes 9. BINGO!!! Donk checks, I bet, slow roll lady just calls of course, donk folds.

River comes 3. I bet, slow roll lady with a snear puts out the river raise.
(She knows I have AQ, or even QQ, maybe an overpair AA KK, and with the river 3, she has just cracked my premium preflop raising hand with her 74o straight -- she is going to teach me about raising preflop all the time!!!)

I 3-bet. Snear is replaced with confused look, then snear comes back. This maniac is totally overplaying his AA. slow roll lady makes it 4-bets, and I re-re-raise since it is heads up.

Slow roll lady merely calls since this is totally unfamilar territory. I immediately flip over my 7,8 for the nut straight, while slow roll disgutedly throws her hand (accidently flipping face up into the muck) HaHa, got caught with her hand in the cookie jar, and her slowly accumulated (slow, because check/call check/call, check/raise is the only betting line she knows) all get slid over to me.

 

[callipygian]

I have logged 10 hours of play ... I have now logged 11 hours of play ... I have now logged 12 hours of play

How many hours of play had you logged as of late August?

 

[cardcounter0]

I logged 4 hours here for $361 profit by the end of August, after it was "discovered" that I don't know how much to bet on the turn and "proven" that win rates of over 2 bb/hr are mathematically impossible.

I am continuing to log session at low limit hold em as I play it. So far I have logged 20 hours for $970 profit. I still have not had anyone answer my question: What is my bb/hr win rate?

The hours are not accumulating very rapidly because:
A) I don't play low limit very often, only if I am really bored, waiting for a seat at a higher limit game, or after a high limit game has broken up and I am "winding down" before I go home.
B) Lately, I have not been able to go to the casinos as often as I normally go, due to personal family problems (doctor visits, dentist, bad weather, and all the other normal trivia of life) so some of my logged time is at local charity games rather than casino games.

Here are all the results for end of August:

Last weekend a friend came over and tried to put the touch on me. Seems he had $100 but needed $200 by the next day to pay a debt.

"So, pay just the $100 and pay the rest later", I said.
"Oh no.", he replied, "It is all or nothing, and if it is nothing I am in trouble".
"Okay, Give me the $100. There is a charity $3/$6 poker game at the American Legion. $100 is enough for a buy-in. I'll get in the game and double your money.", I said grabbing my shoes and putting them on.
"Can you guarentee that you will win?, what happens if you lose", he moaned.
I looked at him. "If you want guarentees, go to the bank and see what kind of return you will get. You said it was all or nothing, so if I lose you are still in the same boat, you can't pay. You have to give me a ride to the game, the oil is getting changed in my car."
"Okay", he agreed, "I will give you a ride to the American Legion, as soon as you double the $100 call me and I will pick you up".

So at exactly 8:00 pm I bought into the local no-fold 'em Hold -em $3/$6 limit gut-shot, flush-chasing, 7 to the flop game. At 9:00 pm, I took a short break, as they feed the players at the game (SINCE THEY TAKE A $6 RAKE!!!) and I ate some roast beef and mashed potatoes.

At 10:00 pm I called my friend. "Come get me, with your $100 buy-in you gave me and the $100 I won, you have your $200".
"WOOOHOOO! Man, I really owe you", he yelled into the phone.
"Don't worry about it. It was fun playing with the low limit donkeys again, and besides they fed me a good dinner", I said, "Now hurry up and come get me, there is a show on tv I want to watch at 10:30".

OKAY -- 2 hours of $3/$6 limit (with a break for dinner), and a $6 rake, I won $100 in those 2 hours.

Due to dry conditions here, my lawn has become infested with fleas, and they have now entered the house. So tonight I had to set off some flea bombs to gas the house. Since I had to leave for a couple of hours, I went to another local charity that had started a new $3/$6 limit game.

They only had one table running and it was full when I arrived. I didn't get a seat until 10:17 pm after a little wait. I cashed out with $121 profit at 11:55 pm.

Went back to the $3/$6 charity limit hold 'em game. Unfortunately, the girl I brought with me starting feeling bad and was tired, so I left after barely playing for 1 hour. I cashed out for a $140 profit.

I am sure eventually I will have a losing session, getting sucked out on and then getting called to a higher limit game or something, but it has not happened yet. I will be sure to log it here when it occurs, just as I have logged here the winning sessions I have played.

 

[callipygian]

I logged 4 hours here for $361 profit by the end of August

No, I meant before the late August threads. It's a question I asked you repeatedly, and one that you've ignored - you just repeat that you've been playing poker for 10 years. How much of that was actually low limit hold'em before August?

I will be sure to log it here when it occurs, just as I have logged here the winning sessions I have played.

Do you think you'd be more believable if you did, or less believable if you didn't? Put another way, what would you say if I told you I could win 10 units/hr at blackjack and then posted my "sessions" to "back it up"?

Your suggestion that "Maybe some mathematical models need to be adjusted" is more true than you think. And you should be the one to adjust them - after all, you've allegedly got all this data you can put in.

What percentage of flops do you see?
What percentage of turns do you see?
What percentage of rivers do you see?
What percentage of pots do you win pre-flop?
What percentage of pots do you win after the flop?
What percentage of pots do you win after the turn?
What percentage of pots do you win after the river?
What is your average sized pot?

 

[cardcounter0]

Put another way, what would you say if I told you I could win 10 units/hr at blackjack and then posted my "sessions" to "back it up"?

Under the right conditions and using the right methods this is certainly possible.

What percentage of flops do you see?
it depends. what are the other player's tedency to limp? to raise? to call a raise? re-raise? how drunk are they?
What percentage of turns do you see?
it depends. see above. will a flop check/raise get me a free turn?
What percentage of rivers do you see?
it depends. Saturday night playing 10/20 after many raises, a player thought his queen high straight beat my queen high straight because he had an ace kicker. :laugh: After the pot was split, he went and played no-limit
What percentage of pots do you win pre-flop?
very few border on zero at low limits
What percentage of pots do you win after the flop?
very few although you sometimes find players that will fold on scary flops, when you do exploit it while you can
What percentage of pots do you win after the turn?
see above. at low limits if they are sill there at the turn they are going to see a river.
What percentage of pots do you win after the river?
It depends see above.
What is your average sized pot?
it depends. see all of the above.

The key to winning poker is not to play by some fixed strategy, but to adjust to the players tendencies, and adjust to the players midway if and when they adjust to your adjustments.

Since I left professional blackjack, I embarked on poker slowly and carefully with a lot of study. I ground out on 2/4 3/6 4/8 for 2 to 3 years, and slowly moved up to 5/10 8/16, then 10/20. add many hours of grinding .50/1 1/2 online. Probably 3000-4000 total hours. After that learning experience, I quickly moved up to higher stakes. right before the UIGA legislation making online play difficult, I supported myself for over 6 months playing 4 tables of 5/10 online exclusively, although I like the aspects of live play much better.

In the casino, at the height of the Chris Moneymaker/WPT Poker BOOM, probably the softess game I ever played was 15/30 with a full kill, when only 2 other players at the table actually knew what hand beat what. we had to teach the rest of the players the rules as we went along.

The longest live session I have played was 36 hours followed by 4 hours sleep and another 10 hours. Online I have played for 16 to 20 hours, sleep, repeat for weeks on end. Once in live play I folded hands running dry for 7 hours before I ever saw a flop. Another time in 5/10, I filled 8 racks of red chips in about 4 hours when I either had a boat, nut straight, nut flush, or boat after boat no matter what I played. (bankroll variance is still higher in blackjack however :laugh

 

[callipygian]

What percentage of flops do you see?
it depends. what are the other player's tedency to limp? to raise? to call a raise? re-raise? how drunk are they?

This isn't a hypothetical question. Historically, on an aggregate level, what percentage of flops did you (or do you) see?

What percentage of pots do you win pre-flop?
very few border on zero at low limits
What percentage of pots do you win after the flop?
very few although you sometimes find players that will fold on scary flops, when you do exploit it while you can
What percentage of pots do you win after the turn?
see above. at low limits if they are sill there at the turn they are going to see a river.

Okay, so we agree on one thing - that the vast majority of the time, in order to win a pot at LLHE, you have to win a showdown. This is a critical assumption in modeling a LLHE game, so be sure you agree with this.

What percentage of pots do you win after the river?
It depends see above.
What is your average sized pot?
it depends. see all of the above.

Again, I'm looking for an aggregate, historical level, not a hypothetical situation. Given a large enough sample size against a variety of players (which anyone with 3000-4000 hours over 10 years should have), this should come to an average.

The key to winning poker is not to play by some fixed strategy, but to adjust to the players tendencies, and adjust to the players midway if and when they adjust to your adjustments.

This is nice advice, but again, unnecessary if you agree that LLHE players are mostly loose passive or loose aggressive. Given enough people entering a pot pre-flop, individual plays that you make earn you less because you're dealing with a group of players, not individuals.

That is, a higher limit game where 4-5 people see a flop and 2 actually know how to fold is actually unmodelable because of the reason you listed. It is precisely because so many people in LLHE enter a flop (regardless of who specifically is playing) that the results can be aggregated and modeled!

I ground out on 2/4 3/6 4/8 for 2 to 3 years, and slowly moved up to 5/10 8/16, then 10/20. add many hours of grinding .50/1 1/2 online. Probably 3000-4000 total hours.

The original question dealt with low limit hold'em (which I will argue includes 2/4 to 4/8, although 5/10 can be added if you want) in B&M joints. What percentage of that 3000-4000 hours was spent on these games? (specifically, exclude 8/16, 10/20, and any online play ... I'd also exclude 5/10 if the 5/10 games you play/played are not the lowest limit in the house - I generally define LLHE as the lowEST limit game in the place, as 4/8 players when a 2/4 table is available behave differently than a 4/8 player when it's the lowest limit)

 

[cardcounter0]

the figure of 3000 - 4000 hours was for low limits (yes there were a few rooms where 5/10 was the lowest game spread)

I said I studied the game for a long time and progressed slowly. I would love to have been able to support myself for the past 10 years only playing 300 hours a year :laugh:

Those hours were all done in the first 2 or 3 years, with some forays into higher limits, and much questioning if leaving blackjack was the thing to do.

Good luck on trying to model a typical low limit game. I have found a table is filled with 10 people who have 10 motivations for playing, 10 different tendencies of playing, and 10 different strategies.

Once you come up with a typical table, I will come up with an adjusted strategy to exploit these differences. I will find out and bluff those capable of being bluffed, show the best hand to those who are going to call down (You would probably be shocked at the number of people who will fold a $100 pot to a single $4 river bet), and steal blinds from those few who can have their blinds stolen.

My strategy will change by who is in the hand, or appears likely to enter (low limit players almost all telegragh their action, you know who is going to call or fold before anyone has acted) If there aren't enough exploitable players, I have no problems with quickly finding another game.

good luck with your model.

PS. If the eighty year old man wakes up and bets instead of check/calling, fold instantly, he has the stone cold nuts. And middle aged women with lots of diamond rings never bluff.
:laugh:

- that the vast majority of the time, in order to win a pot at LLHE, you have to win a showdown.

After an hour or two of being shown superior hands, they will start folding, at which time you loosen up your hand range and start raising. Until they realize you can't have the nuts everytime, at which time you start waiting for the nuts again.

 

[callipygian]

I have found a table is filled with 10 people who have 10 motivations for playing, 10 different tendencies of playing, and 10 different strategies.

And yet, the number of people who see a flop regardless of what state and what stakes and what time of day and what time of year are remarkably constant.

Once you come up with a typical table, I will come up with an adjusted strategy to exploit these differences.

Except that you've already claimed to have exploited the differences. What I'm trying to see is whether your claims add up.

good luck with your model.

Why don't you just answer the questions with a number? Imagine playing 100 hands against 100 different tables. What would your aggregate numbers be, all things considered?

Or, if you want, describe your dream table and describe their behavior. That can be modeled as well.

 

[cardcounter0]

the preflop bet represents 1/6 of the potential bets to be made (with no raises).
if there is a river raise, limping in represents 1/8 of the money you will have to put in to see a showdown. why the fascination with such a miniscule part of the game?

Although the number of people limping in is remarkably similar, there is the flop turn and river for people to diverge. Some call anything all the way with any part of the flop, some fold monsters to any raise. Every table will have varying degrees and compositions of this behavior. (I really like the people who check/call the river with the nuts, OR only raise the river when they absolutely can't be beat - you could almost model how to play the river with those people)
:laugh:

Maybe the next time I find myself at a low limit table I will take a small notepad and record live play for the above parameters.
:joker:

 

[callipygian]

Maybe the next time I find myself at a low limit table I will take a small notepad and record live play for the above parameters.

Can't you just give a range that encompasses 90% of your play? This isn't rocket science, if you give a figure like "between 20% and 30%" that's fine.

 

[cardcounter0]

1 more hour of 3/6. Another $40 in profit.

I did not capture any stats as it was all short handed play with 5 to 7 players at the table, mostly 5 players with a single $3 BB.

Another tip: Online play at 6 max tables is good practice. Live players do not adjust well to short handed play. You can really crank up the aggression when several players leave and you have a lot of empty seats.

Maybe I will play some more low limits tonight when I go back, will capture stats if I play any time at a full table.