Oscars Grind? Considering givin it a shot

[eatenbyalgae]

Hi, im new here... and new to gambling.

I want to try Oscars grind, but wanted to know what you guys thought about it.

Im not looking for a get rich quick scheme... but just want to try to play blackjack without losing my whole cash roll right away.

At this casino they have a blackjack table that is 5-500, and a roulette machine that is min bet 1 and max bet 240

how much of a bankroll would i need for BJ, to cover Oscars grind... and how much would i need for roulette?

And from your experiences... i know Oscars Grind will ultimately result in a loss of thousands... but in the long run, do the gains exceed the occasional loss?

thank you guys for your time

 

[eatenbyalgae]

And thinking about the roulette... that is 240 units to see it through... is that better than the 100 units otherwise?

 

[Kasi]

how much of a bankroll would i need for BJ, to cover Oscars grind... and how much would i need for roulette?

And from your experiences... i know Oscars Grind will ultimately result in a loss of thousands... but in the long run, do the gains exceed the occasional loss?

Don't use Oscar with BJ - it's desigened for an even-money game.

How much money you willing to risk?

Is the roulette single or double zero? Is there a $1 crap game?

 

[FLASH1296]

The BEST bet for Oscar's Grind.

Firstly, you asked "in the long run, do the gains exceed the occasional loss?"

The answer to that is an absolute NO. It is not debatable.

With this "grind" you can generally win some modest amount of money on any given session. BUT you can rest assured that there is a 100% chance that you will be "crushed" from time to time - and that happens more often than you imagine.

Do not attempt to play BlackJack with "Oscar's Grind". You cannot win close enough to 50% of your hands to make BJ a good choice. Similarly Roulette, especially American Roulette is also a poor choice, as you'll win considerably less than 50% of your spins. 47% in fact. Crap's Pass or Don't Pass is a good choice. The best choice is the only bet in the house that wins more than 50% of the time. That is the "BANK" bet at a mini-baccarat table You will pay a 5% commission on winning BANK bets but you will not often wind up "tapped-out", as winning about 52% of BANK bets is your expectation. The commissions will add up and may actually cancel out some wins - but the important short term goal is simply not going "broke" as you grind-out some modest wins.

Incidentally, if you wish to use "Oscar's Grind" you must be forewarned of the following. You can take your chances and play it for a limited time with a pre-determined goal such as winning 10 or 20 units. IF you think thatyou can do this for "hours on end" you will probably "tap-out" far sooner than you think.

Forewarned is Forearmed.

 

[Thunder]

While you will get crushed in the long run using Oscar's grind, I know I've used it with BJ when I'm tired of counting or need cover. If you're playing at a $5 table I suggest you bet in $5 increments with it and you will realistically need a $400 bankroll assuming you use a $200 stop loss. If you decide to start out at $10 and use $10 increments then you should carry at least a $800 bankroll with a $400 stop loss. Be warned though, this is not for the faint hearted as your bets will get pretty high in a losing streak. Just remember, there is no substitute for card counting.

 

[shadroch]

This seems like as good a place as any to post this.

I'm in the middle of a lengthy Oscars Grind experiment,playing only BJ. Roughly a third of it has been in casinos playing real machines, the rest playing on a few internet sites. The rules-$1 minimum bet, 6decks, DAO,DAS,
Split Aces once,Dealer hits soft 17. Penetration is meaningless as I'm not counting.
Sessions start with $100 BR, end with either a $25 win, a $100 loss or in the real casino, a two hour session.
Real casino results- 32 sessions, not a single losing one. Net gain of just over $400. Problem is its taken over 40 hours of real time play.
Online sessions- 115 winning sessions for $2875, 7 losing $700 totlal, leaving me an online paper profit of $2100.
My biggest problem is that there are no $1 BJ machines of the sort I want anywhere local, and my real profits are dwarfed by my real expenses.
The reality is you will get crushed on rare occasion. It doesn't happen very often, at all. But it could just as easily happen your first time out as your 50th time out.
One other thing, playing video BJ at $1 a hand gets you next to nothing in comps, even on triple point days.

 

[Thunder]

Shadroch,
If you do it in the casinos at the $5 tables, using $5 as your starting bet, you should be able to average about $50/hr. I haven't had a losing session yet and have been stopped out only once. I would estimate I've used it for a total of oh maybe 17 hours altogether now.

 

[sagefr0g]

.....
One other thing, playing video BJ at $1 a hand gets you next to nothing in comps, even on triple point days.

just curious shad, is this the video BJ that only pays 2 for 1 as opposed to 3/2 for snappers?

 

[shadroch]

No, these are the machines with the simulated dealers that play and pay like real tables.

 

[shadroch]

No, these are the machines with the simulated dealers that play and pay like real tables.

The video BJ machines that pay even money are a good source for comps on double or triple point days. Still doesn't make them a good game, though.

 

[Baseball John]

Oscar's Grind Profitable but Very Dangerous

I have kept track of 110 K hands using Oscar's Grind and entered the results into an Excel spreadshheet.

Over the course of the 110K hands ALL of the series or sequences
WON (Almost 15,000 series ). 100% of the time.

The bad news is that a bankroll of up to 8,800 units was needed to complete EVERY SEQUENCE.

After 110K hands were played 21,000 units were won (about 1 unit for every 5 hands played.)

All hands were played using BS. The game was 6D DOA DAS LS

No indices were used and the count was ignored. All hands played thru positive and negative shoes. The House advantage in my sample ended up at -.34% which was very close to accepted published results.

Be careful if you choose this progression.
Hope this info helps someone!

John

 

[eatenbyalgae]

thanks for the input guys..

the roulette is double zero, but i have 240 units(1-240) if that makes any difference.

i have won money on roulette doing the martingale on the 1-12 block... but it was most likely luck

 

[sagefr0g]

No, these are the machines with the simulated dealers that play and pay like real tables.

thanks shad, ok another question lol.
would the 2 for 1 machines be candidates for using OG? i mean as far as being able to get the OG effect, so to speak and as far as running up points for comps?

 

[shadroch]

thanks shad, ok another question lol.
would the 2 for 1 machines be candidates for using OG? i mean as far as being able to get the OG effect, so to speak and as far as running up points for comps?

I've used it on theses machines in order to get X amount of points in casinos. never had a big loss, but mostly just broke even or picked up a very few sheckels. The Trop in AC is an example. To continue getting cash offers, they expect 5 points every time you cash in an offer. Thats about twenty minutes at minimim levels.

 

[Kasi]

Firstly, you asked "in the long run, do the gains exceed the occasional loss?"

The answer to that is an absolute NO. It is not debatable.

With this "grind" you can generally win some modest amount of money on any given session. BUT you can rest assured that there is a 100% chance that you will be "crushed" from time to time - and that happens more often than you imagine.
Incidentally, if you wish to use "Oscar's Grind" you must be forewarned of the following. You can take your chances and play it for a limited time with a pre-determined goal such as winning 10 or 20 units. IF you think thatyou can do this for "hours on end" you will probably "tap-out" far sooner than you think.

In the "long" run, of course you're right. But in the "short" run, it's quite likely gains will exceed loss. It's possible, not maybe even that unlikely, one could be ahead after a lifetime.

What is it - something like with a 1000 unit roll you'll win your 1 unit 99.8% of the time or so on a pass line bet?
With a 5000 unit roll, maybe 99.95+ % of the time? That could mean many many hours spent at a crap table lol.

OG only applies to games with even money bets. It's designed with a goal of winning exactly 1 unit in a "session".

 

[Kasi]

the roulette is double zero, but i have 240 units(1-240) if that makes any difference.
i have won money on roulette doing the martingale on the 1-12 block... but it was most likely luck

Well I meant how many units of bankroll you were willing to risk. Or how many dollars lol.

Like with $1K and a $1 unit, at the roulette game, you could win 10 units ($10) 97+% of the time using a cancellation system. But not sure how the table max would fit in, limiting how much you'd want to bet. Switch to another table then if it happens lol.

You'll probably succeed the first time. Now you have 2 more $5 units at the BJ table. Might give you 6 hours at a -EV BJ table with an expectation of still being even.

Repeat. You could last a long time.

There's lots of things you can do depending on what you want to do.

 

[FLASH1296]

It is extremely misleading to look at it that way. You are not doing yourself a favor.
It is 'fatally wrong' to look at it from that perspective, simply because there is no way that you will play and succeed in winning ONE UNIT and quit for the day.

You will restart your series of wagers many times. Perhaps as many as 50, 75, or 100 times over the course of your session. So many times that, in fact, you quickly become a favorite to go "belly up" within one or two sessions.

Think about it. For simplicity's sake let's say that you have deep pockets, a high limit table game, and nerves of steel. We will assume that once in a hundred times you will fail to finalize your series of bets with a win. As you are positing a success rate of 99%, that means an expected failure rate of 1%, which means that if you play the series of progressive bets just 100 times, you are "even money" to "go broke".

This is essentially what happens with all progressive betting schemes; and it is why the casino will gladly let you right down your results as you play in order to keep track of your progressions or regressions, etc. Indeed, if you are playing for high enough stakes the casino will certainly send a limo for you; as they have done for nearly a century for the hundreds of thousands of suckers before you who have had the same or similar not-quite-accurate notion that the casinos are charitable foundations that are itching to give you their money.

 

[eatenbyalgae]

Well I meant how many units of bankroll you were willing to risk. Or how many dollars lol.

Like with $1K and a $1 unit, at the roulette game, you could win 10 units ($10) 97+% of the time using a cancellation system. But not sure how the table max would fit in, limiting how much you'd want to bet. Switch to another table then if it happens lol.

You'll probably succeed the first time. Now you have 2 more $5 units at the BJ table. Might give you 6 hours at a -EV BJ table with an expectation of still being even.

Repeat. You could last a long time.

There's lots of things you can do depending on what you want to do.

Im willing to risk(lose) 1000 dollars...

would OG be more fun at a 5 dollar table? or better at a 1 dollar a unit roulette games... it seems painful that a long session will only put you up 1 dollar. 5 i can live with

 

[eatenbyalgae]

what would be a good stop loss number? on roulette and BJ?

sorry for all the noob questions.

also a question about counting? is it still an effective strategy when the casino uses 6 decks and a shuffling machine constantly?

 

[shadroch]

Im willing to risk(lose) 1000 dollars...

would OG be more fun at a 5 dollar table? or better at a 1 dollar a unit roulette games... it seems painful that a long session will only put you up 1 dollar. 5 i can live with

With $1,000 BR, you'll be fine on a $5 table. If you stick with OG, that is. Its a very boring system and it takes a lot of discipline to stick to.
i'm not sure why people seem to feel it isn't designed for BJ. It works fine for me, and evidently a few others here use it as well.