Play at the $5 table or the $15 ?

[john]

Lets assume I can get away with almost any kind of spread because maybe I can.

I can spread 1 to 40 at the $5 table with a ROR of 4 % but a std dev of 92.
The DI = 5.01 and the c-score = 25.14 winrate/hr = 4.641 dollars/hr= $23

or

I can spread 1 to 12 at the $15 table with ROR of 10 % and std Dev of 39
DI= 4.36 c-score = 18.97 winrate/hr = 1.7 dollars/hr = $25

Both situations, you wong-out when tc < -1 .

Which would a professional blackjack player choose to do?

 

[Abraham de Moivre]

A Professional Blackjack Player would walk away from both games, they usually look for a DI of at least 10 or more.

It is no fun (and hard to pay bills) making $200 bets in order to some where at some time, maybe, in the long run, if you don't go broke, earn $25 an hour.

However, if some one held a gun to my head, and FORCED me to choose:

It would be the $5 game. The $15 dollar game is only making me $2 more an hour, and I am increasing my risk 150%. Also, back to reality, the $5 game probably isn't watched as close.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

If you can spread whatever you want and want to play all hands the $5 table is better because you will be playing $5 whenever EV is negative, and high as you dare when it is positive. If you can Wong in/out whenever you want it won't matter which table because you will never be playing a hand with negative EV. But no one can spread whatever they want so this is just theory.

Why is your DI so low? Sounds like you can work on your spread and play to get the DI up at least to 6 in a shoe game.

 

[Tom]

Bet the least possible.

 

[john]

The mayor said that a DI of 7 is what you should shoot for, but in simulations and on CVCX, I have never come close to this. I put in some worst-case scenarios like 66% penetration and that is what I use. I believe I have come close to it by simply backcounting everything, but I don't think that is realistic.

When I change the penetration to 75 % from 66% and only play counts above -1, the DI goes to 6.23 and ROR is 1 % on the $5 table with 1 to 40 spread.

I don't live in Vegas or Atlantic City but I do have about 20 Casinos within driving distance of me and that is why I use the worst-case scenario.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

No that doesn't sound right to me. Let me try simming it and see what I get. Please tell me: your exact spread (what count gets what bet) the game rules, and which count you are using.

 

[john]

If you'd like, I can e-mail the file to you. It doesn't seem that I can attach the file in this post.

Here are the settings. I only simmed 6 deck and it took me about 2 minutes on a 2 ghz amd athlon computer.

Used CVCX

Settings

Basic Hi-Lo

6 deck
shuffle point 104 cards
90 hands per hour
table max 50
players 5
players come and go 0
your seat 5
DD on 2 cards
DD on any soft hand
DD on any hard hand
dealer peeks on 10
dealer peeks on ace
split to 4 hands

15000 bankroll
1 to 40 spread
backcount -1
minimum bet of $5
minimum chip size 5
optimize for bankroll growth

I get DI= 5.01 c-score= 25.14
$20.88 /hr
winrate= 4.177
ROR= 3.9 %
1.217 % W/L

Does that sound right. I could e-mail the file to you. It will be a .hst file.

 

[john]

forgot this too

Deck resolution: full deck

S17 DAS
split to 4 hands
No late or early surrender

 

[Cyrano]

Try this:

Flat bet $100 and wong in at a higher TC (My RoR and win rate were maximized at a TC of +1). The DI and cSCORE might suffer due to more "downtime".

 

[Automatic Monkey]

OK the problems I see are: your spread is probably too abrupt. 1:40 is crazy, you might want to redo it with something you can actually play like 1:10 and 1:12. Where the breaks are in the spread is important. An excessive variance is probably the cause of your low DI. You are also playing at a game without LSR, and this can be really rough on your bankroll if you play with a big spread.

Other problem: which playing indexes are you playing? With High-Low you need 15-20. I play Hi-Opt II so I play 32 indexes.

Your EV is +4-5 betting units per hour. This is phenomenal, but the price you pay is a huge variance hence the low DI. If you have a $10K bankroll and you can get away with a 1:40 spread at a $5 game, everything you are doing is fine. Schlesinger's DI equations apply to the typical counter who is playing at or below the Kelly Criterion and you should be grateful that you are earning with a red chip what most players earn with a green chip.

 

[john]

Unfortunately, there is only one Casino in my area that I know of that offers LSR. Is this a big problem? I believe that I am doing simulations with the Late Surrender rule unchecked and still coming away a winner. Not sure how well that will translate into the real world, though. How well does your data from Casino Verite match up with your actual playing in the real world, Automatic? When I have been playing at Casinos around my area, I do a lot of backcounting and no one seems to care. Also, I believe that I could spread outrageously and get away with it. The casino that I plan on doing this at doesn't kick out counters.

Also, Casino Verite says that I can beat an 8 deck game almost as easily as a 6 deck. The DI 's were different and it may take longer to get into the long run with an 8 deck game, though. I earned about $10 less per hour, too.