Player Advantage Question

[rogue1]

O.K.-so I'm playing at a 6 deck shoe game. DAS DOA Late Surrender Dealer hits soft 17 . Pen:41/2 decks in play. I'm using the Kiss III count. I backcount and only play when I have an advantage-Wong in-betting 3-10 units depending on the count.

Question:Normally my advantage would be around 1-2% if I'm sitting down and playing. What is my advantage if I'm backcounting and ONLY Wonging in and out?
Thanks!

 

[rogue1]

Player Advantage

Doesn't someone have an idea?

 

[Jeff25]

I would say it would be between 2 and 2.5%
It depends on your spread, what count you enter shoes etc..

 

[positiveEV]

I didn't find any simulator for Kiss III but for Hi-Low, 26.70% of the hands would have a count of 1 or more. Using the MIT betting, Unit*(TC-1) with a 1-12 spread, it would look like that:

You would play a break even game 42.81% of the time, betting half a unit.
You would play with a 0.5% advantage 25.88% of the time, betting 1 units.
You would play with a 1% advantage 12.17% of the time, betting 2 units.
1.5% advantage 9.4% of the time, betting 3 units.
2% advantage 4.31% of the time, betting 4 units.
2.5% advantage 2.7% of the time, betting 5 units.
The rest of the time (a little bit over 2.7%), you would have an average advantage of 3.5% (estimated amount) and you would bet 6 units.

((0*42.81*0.5)+(0.5*25.88*1)+(1*12.17*2)+(1.5*9.4*3)+(2*4.31*4)+(2.5*2.7*5)+(3.5*2.7*6))/100 = 2.0451

Maybe my calculations are wrong, but you would have an average advantage of 2.0451% by playing only at TC of 1+ on 6D shoes using Hi-Low and always going away when the count drops under 1.