Playing like an idiot for cover

[alwayssplitaces]

I recently played for hours overnight at a store notorious for backing off counters in less than an hour. When the pit boss was looking at me for the first hour, I made stupid plays with a min bet that had a low cost. Doubled a hard 8 vs 5, stood on soft 16 vs 6, split fives, doubled a blackjack, and even hit a hard 14 vs 6. Oh and I split tens occasionally. Only idiots and counters split face cards, so I think I established myself as an idiot. I spread 5-50. I was winning all night but I ratholed a lot so they thought I lost a lot since I kept re buying in. I kept moving around to get a table to myself (one time I split tens with a max bet out, got 2 aces on each and the dealer drew to 20 and I was the only winner, that cleared the table). I told the ploppies that sat at my table to do stupid things like double hard 16, and that also got them to leave. I was playing unrated and the pit boss offered me a free room for my next visit. I told them that I won a jackpot on a slot machine at the casino next door when they saw my bankroll in my wallet.

Note: some details were changed

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Spreading 5-50 gives you a very low edge in most games. How much did you give away with an hour of "cover" bets? You really don't need to worry about this kind of stuff at the limits you're playing. Being friendly with the pit and having a likable personality will go much further than making a few borderline mistakes, especially when you consider that most pits have no clue about proper BS and wouldn't be able to tell "stupid" plays apart from (correct) index plays even if they were being quizzed on it. For a max bet of $50, never, ever bother with cover. Especially playing unrated.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

It was a single deck with DA2 split 4x NDAS H17 60% pen. The cost of splitting face cards with a $5 bet is less than the cost of not splitting tens with a $50 bet at a high count against 5 or 6.

 

[moo321]

It was a single deck with DA2 split 4x NDAS H17 60% pen. The cost of splitting face cards with a $5 bet is less than the cost of not splitting tens with a $50 bet at a high count against 5 or 6.

Umm, let's see 1-10 with cover plays thrown in? Could be doable. I'd do cheaper cover plays than some of the ones you did.

Really, I'd do betting cover before I'd do playing cover, though. Run a fake progression. Or run a progression one deck, then count the next.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

My mistake for assuming that we were talking about a shoe game. That game seems pretty reasonable, especially with a 1-10 spread. I would certainly focus on betting cover rather than playing cover, though; betting cover that doesn't cost much is especially useful, such as opposition betting.

Floorpersons and pit bosses are almost certainly going to nail you on wide bet variations way before they notice that you correctly play your A7 v T. I'm telling you, a lot of these people are hopeless when it comes to BS, especially for SD games. Small playing errors may not cost you much, but they're likely buying you nothing.

 

[assume_R]

betting cover that doesn't cost much is especially useful, such as opposition betting.

What's this?

 

[moo321]

My mistake for assuming that we were talking about a shoe game. That game seems pretty reasonable, especially with a 1-10 spread. I would certainly focus on betting cover rather than playing cover, though; betting cover that doesn't cost much is especially useful, such as opposition betting.

Floorpersons and pit bosses are almost certainly going to nail you on wide bet variations way before they notice that you correctly play your A7 v T. I'm telling you, a lot of these people are hopeless when it comes to BS, especially for SD games. Small playing errors may not cost you much, but they're likely buying you nothing.

Agree.

 

[Sucker]

Opposition betting is when you make SOME of your bets as OPPOSED to the count. The theory goes something like this: If you make a few LARGE bets when the count is neutral or SLIGHTLY negative, and make a few SMALL bets when the count is slightly POSITIVE; these types of cover bets will only cost you a small amount of vig; when compared to the hugh vig you'll get because of the fact that you will NOW be able to get away with making very LARGE bets in very HIGH counts.

Whether or not opposition betting is effective enough to make it worth the effort; that is the subject of a never-ending and ongoing debate among experts.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Also, be aware that opposition betting will increase your variance noticeably. Whether or not it's worth it is as debatable as whether or not any cover is worth it, in my opinion. For a counter maxing out at $50? Probably not. On a SD game with decent rules and passable pen in a sweaty place? Maybe, but it needs to be noticed to be effective; I simply think that betting cover will buy you more time than playing cover, if either will. And in a SD game, your index plays should already give you a bit of "playing cover," as the pits generally will have no clue whether you're making a correct index play or just don't know BS, if they even know it themselves.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

I just gave them the impression I was a maniac in the first hour. Later on they were entertained by my index plays, such as splitting and resplitting tens with a $50 bet out. And they thought I was losing when I really wasn't.

 

[moo321]

Whether or not opposition betting is effective enough to make it worth the effort; that is the subject of a never-ending and ongoing debate among experts.

It is something one should be careful with. Betting cover needs to be paired with larger spreads, or other ways to make up the disadvantage.

 

[zengrifter]

I just gave them the impression I was a maniac in the first hour. Later on they were entertained by my index plays, such as splitting and resplitting tens with a $50 bet out. And they thought I was losing when I really wasn't.

Very good. zg

 

[FLASH1296]

"Opposition Betting" is detailed in Blackbelt in Blackjack, along with "Depth Charging".

 

[bigplayer]

I recently played for hours overnight at a store notorious for backing off counters in less than an hour. When the pit boss was looking at me for the first hour, I made stupid plays with a min bet that had a low cost. Doubled a hard 8 vs 5, stood on soft 16 vs 6, split fives, doubled a blackjack, and even hit a hard 14 vs 6. Oh and I split tens occasionally. Only idiots and counters split face cards, so I think I established myself as an idiot. I spread 5-50. I was winning all night but I ratholed a lot so they thought I lost a lot since I kept re buying in. I kept moving around to get a table to myself (one time I split tens with a max bet out, got 2 aces on each and the dealer drew to 20 and I was the only winner, that cleared the table). I told the ploppies that sat at my table to do stupid things like double hard 16, and that also got them to leave. I was playing unrated and the pit boss offered me a free room for my next visit. I told them that I won a jackpot on a slot machine at the casino next door when they saw my bankroll in my wallet.

Note: some details were changed

Know the cost of your cover BEFORE you employ it. Rather than brag about lasting maybe you'd have been better off playing a casino with better tolerance or just flat betting as an unrated player $5 until you got a big count and then fired up $25 then $50 for a few bet cycles until the heat gets so ferocious you just have to leave (and don't stop to cash your chips). Your post doesn't provide enough details for any concrete opinion except a very subjective one and mine is you're edge was so low so as to be completely useless in terms of making money. There are ways to use some idiot cover but you have to be very selective in how and where you use these plays (like splitting 2's versus 9 or 10). Check Don's book for the table of the costs of various cover plays...there is one table for your cost if you use the play all the time and a second table for the individual cost of each play. There are enough cheap cover plays so that the expensive ones can be used like "smart bombs" only for when your either A. Setting Up a new Casino for future play OR B. For use when you KNOW you're being evaluated.

All add something re: Opposition Betting, you need a bigger spread to cover the cost of raising your bets when the count is sinking and lowering your bets when the count is rising until you reach your trigger point. Not just the costs of in terms of EV but also variance makes it take much longer to get into the long run. Opposition betting works best in games that already require little spread to beat the game. (like a good old fashioned single deck game or a Double Deck game with 75%+ penetration). It doesn't work so well in shoes because if you're wonging you're already using an infinite spread.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

My one hour of acting like an idiot for just a few hands bought me over 12 hours of overnight heads-up play on 2 different nights with the same pit boss. I more than made up the -EV by being allowed to play for hours at the place with great rules that usually backs off counters in less than an hour. Not having to walk between casinos in the night when it was cold was also a plus.

 

[bigplayer]

My one hour of acting like an idiot for just a few hands bought me over 12 hours of overnight heads-up play on 2 different nights with the same pit boss. I more than made up the -EV by being allowed to play for hours at the place with great rules that usually backs off counters in less than an hour. Not having to walk between casinos in the night when it was cold was also a plus.

that's great, and it's good to hear that you used the cover stuff only for the first hour to set up your play.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

My one hour of acting like an idiot for just a few hands bought me over 12 hours of overnight heads-up play on 2 different nights with the same pit boss. I more than made up the -EV by being allowed to play for hours at the place with great rules that usually backs off counters in less than an hour. Not having to walk between casinos in the night when it was cold was also a plus.

I think this is a big mistake from a reasoning perspective. The nickel counter that employs cover betting will often justify their -EV plays by reasoning that a small loss bought a certain amount of longevity. How do you know that your one hour of -EV play bought you twelve hours of play? How do you quantify that? Is it equally—or nearly—as likely that this casino wasn't as alarmed by your $50 max bets than you feared they would be and, thus, your cover plays didn't really buy you any longevity at all?

Furthermore, any gain you may have made from playing 12 hours without cover could be compromised due to prolonged exposure. If this place is really as sweaty as you say they are, then I imagine they would check you out at some point throughout your two 12 hour overnight sessions (especially if you played through surveillance shifts). Do you think 1 hour of stupid plays will disguise your betting correlation? Especially when playing 1-10 on a SD game?

I don't mean to be negative, but I really think you're justifying potentially unnecessary cover with what are probably false assumptions. What's your edge on that game, 1.5%? It's not worth giving up ANY of that if your max bet is $50, in my opinion.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

I wasn't doing stupid things for a whole hour, I only did a few cover plays. Probably reduced my edge the first hour to breakeven.