JJP said:
So what does one do when counting cards is no longer an option?
In preparing for the "card counting no longer an option" scenario, I break down the reasons into two camps.
1.) Games no longer playable. The demise of card counting due to unplayable conditions has been feared since the 60's when Thorpe's
Beat the Dealer was published. It hasn't happened. There is actually a
need for casinos to offer beatable games. It is a marketing draw and lure to the public.
So while we haven't seen playable blackjack games disappear, we have seen a trend towards unfavorable rules and conditions that makes 'beating' these games (by card counting more difficult). Some of these changes can be offset or partially offset with different approaches. Some can't. Should this trend continue and further unfavorable conditions be introduced, my concern isn't that the games will be unbeatable (again the casino wants that perception), but that it just will no longer be worth it to do so.
2.)
Denying winning players. As I moved from low level stakes at the beginning of my career playing Atlantic City, to higher stakes, I immediately began to experience counter-measures. While AC could not bar players as other jurisdictions can, these counter-measures of half-shoeing and bet restrictions had the same effect. I looked around and saw that many of the publicly known successful players from the 90's of the MIT and other team's were unable to play. While successful, they had short careers. Having worn out my welcome in AC, as I relocated I devised a plan with the goal of avoiding that same fate.
I placed less emphasis on attempting to trick surveillance and pit with cover plays an tactics that just are not effective and become less effective with new technology for identifying and tracking players. I placed my focus on identifying and playing within tolerance or comfort levels of both different casinos and pits personnel. A I said earlier the casino wants that perception of winnable games and even winning players. You just have to figure out and stay within their comfort level of what is and isn't tolerated. This involves several aspects from betting levels (major) to session lengths, which helps minimize large wins in one session, to playing a large rotation so as not to see the same faces too frequently and more importantly, not to appear to challenge them to have to take action.
This philosophy of co-existence based on playing within comfort levels has worked for 9 years for me now, since I graduated from low level play. While there is a constant re-evaluation of what is and isn't tolerated, I see no indications that anything is changing for me. Until I do, I am not going to fret about what comes next. I am just going to keep doing what I enjoy doing for as long as I can and then cross that bridge when I come to it. Maybe, just maybe, with continued execution of the game plan, I will quit card counting before it quits me.
