Say a player has a bankroll of 25K and plays with a ROR of 8%. What is the percent chance, lifetime, that he will lose the entire bankroll, lose half of it, double it, triple it quadruple it? Assuming his bankroll, bet sizes, and ROR remain constant - he does not increase his bankroll if he accumulates some winnings. What would the answers be if you assume he will play 5000 hours and then quit the game? What would the answers be if he reinvests all winnings in his bankroll?
Probablities - Risk of Ruin
- Thread starter 3aces
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Automatic Monkey
Banned
Whoa wait, "RoR" without any qualification usually means absolute RoR, which is the likelihood you will go bankrupt ever without any bet resize. When comparing banks, the RoR for a 50% smaller bank is the square root of what it was for the original one, so if you had a 8% RoR at $25K bank then at $12.5K bank your RoR will be about 28%.
There isn't enough information to answer this question. You'd need to know the win rate and standard deviation to calculate the rest.
There isn't enough information to answer this question. You'd need to know the win rate and standard deviation to calculate the rest.
Probabilities - Risk of Ruin
Thanks for your help guys. Here is a slightly different scenario and more info. Player has bankroll of 26K, plays 6D, pen 75%, S17, DAS, SR, RSA, with some wonging (wong in at TC+1 and some wonging out so ave bet at TC 0 is $50) and a CVCX sim (for hi lo sweet 16 fab 4) shows these results: RoR 6.8%, score 54.95, win/hr 106.51, Stand dev per hand 193.69, and Stand dev per hour 1436.8.
Spread is $100 - $400 for TC1-4+. 100 hands per hr.
What is percent chance he will lose half his bankroll, double it, triple it in 500 hours of play? In 1000 hours of play? Assuming he does not reinvest winnings in his bankroll and his bet sizes remain constant.
Thanks again, I don't want to put anyone to a lot of trouble, but I am trying to get a feel for a range of possible outcomes other than just going broke.
Thanks for your help guys. Here is a slightly different scenario and more info. Player has bankroll of 26K, plays 6D, pen 75%, S17, DAS, SR, RSA, with some wonging (wong in at TC+1 and some wonging out so ave bet at TC 0 is $50) and a CVCX sim (for hi lo sweet 16 fab 4) shows these results: RoR 6.8%, score 54.95, win/hr 106.51, Stand dev per hand 193.69, and Stand dev per hour 1436.8.
Spread is $100 - $400 for TC1-4+. 100 hands per hr.
What is percent chance he will lose half his bankroll, double it, triple it in 500 hours of play? In 1000 hours of play? Assuming he does not reinvest winnings in his bankroll and his bet sizes remain constant.
Thanks again, I don't want to put anyone to a lot of trouble, but I am trying to get a feel for a range of possible outcomes other than just going broke.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
The ROR formulas assume that all money gets reinvested into the bankroll. If you never reinvest any of your profit then your ROR is 100%. If you reinvest some of your profit then you'll need to use a Cumulative ROR formula:bj42 said:
http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/riskofruin.shtml
-Sonny-