That's a good way of putting it. An interesting perspective. Most gamblers just look at the "positive side" of progressive gambling and refuse to look at the near inevitable end result.BlackjackMan312 said:
Sure. Gamblers who like occasional beg wins brag about it to their friends: "I took the casino for $1000 yesterday". They think it impresses people, but some of us know they don't like to mention the dozen times they lost $100 to $200 in a session.aslan said:
win 6 hands in a row? what? how would that make it better than flat betting? they will eventually hit that point where they lose 10 hands in a row and get wiped outBlackjackMan312 said:
You are thinking of negative progression, or martingale. I think positive progressions are more common. I have a buddy who does a 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 etc positive progression, back to 1 after any loss. Six wins in a row for him, as you can see, would give him a 16 unit win without doubles, splits, or BJ's. I've done the math and shown him that he is playing a losing game but he is up about $5,000 betting green playing this way.SilentBob420BMFJ said:
RG1 said:I've done the math and shown him that he is playing a losing game but he is up about $5,000 betting green playing this way./QUOTE]
Interesting. I was just wondering how long (hands lol) you guess this guy may have been playing this way.
So he's up 200 units so far? Would you say he's incredibly lucky so far? A little lucky? Really not that surprising at all?
How many more hands does your math say he will likely be able to play betting this way before he is back to EV?
I mean if the guy started to flat-bet from here on out, it'd be a pretty long time before he got back to EV, wouldn't it?
Really, just wondering, and I don't mean anything by asking.
I mean, if I knew the answer, I wouldn't be asking
GeorgeD said:
Kasi said:I would say he has made about 10 trips and played 10-15 hours/trip. So somewhere between 100 and 150 hours. And before I knew any better I won about $800 betting $15 this way. That was in about 15 hours of play. I caught one shoe where I won a few bets and got a bigger bet out, then I got three BJ's in a row with a split/double, won about $500 in that "streak". I came home, did some research, crunched some number and realized I was incredibly lucky and if I wanted to keep it going I was going to have to learn to count.RG1 said:
I would say incredibly lucky since he wasn't even playing correct BS. Nothing rediculous like hiting a 14 against a 5, but the normal ploppy plays like S 12 v 2/3, D A v 11, etc.Kasi said:
I've deleted my work a while ago. At the time I didn't even know what EV was. I remember I proved that the house still had an edge and that was all that mattered.Kasi said:
I did consider that playing this way, going for a streak of wins rather than the best EV, it may be better off using a different basic strategy that would include less doubling and hitting more. But I'm not going to get into that because I've already talked too much ploppy in this post.
No problem, if I had more answers I would give them to you.Kasi said:Really, just wondering, and I don't mean anything by asking.
I mean, if I knew the answer, I wouldn't be asking
these two stupid phrases come to mind.. "you cant win anything if you are only betting $x" and "your here for entertainment? pff, im here to win money" (everybody at table says "yeah").. are they aware gambling is a losing venture, and that coming to the casino to win money, and not for entertainment, is retarded? ap's excludedaslan said:
RG1 said:
After reading most of your posts I just assume you don't understand very much, but you think you know just about everything. You even think you know more than Sonny and you haven't even read BJ attack or know how to calculate an EV??SilentBob420BMFJ said:
orSilentBob420BMFJ said:
positive and negative are EXACTLY the same after a billion hands, go ask sonny if you want.. and that was a complete example, and if you add up the numbers, they both equate to zero.. the example you used is no different than mine.. when did i ever say i dont believe sonny? in fact, i have said many times that i think sonny is very smart and i like to hear what he has to say, but his attitude towards me, much like yours in this post, is what i dont like.. when the hell did i tell people that ANY progression system in ANY example is good? i think your just another hater, skimming thru what i say to look for something to bash me onRG1 said:
Well, his biggest winning session was about $2,200. He was down $725, down to his last chip from his $750 buy-in. Most of that win was in one "streak" where I figure he must have won about 12 hands in a row with some doubles, splits, and BJ's. I calculated the chances of winning 12 hands in a row at about 1.4 in 10,000 "streaks" (win or loss streaks). That's pretty lucky to me.Kasi said:
I don't have to skim through your posts to find something to bash you. I could just go to your member page, click on your posts link and then read the last sentence you wrote. Most of what you write is a joke but I have to say that it is very entertaining reading some of it when you are smoking dope.SilentBob420BMFJ said:
RG1 said:
so because i have 420 in my name i smoke weed? did it ever dawn on you that 1. ive had this name for 10 years, and 2. you seem to have a negative stereotype of everybody who smokes weed?RG1 said:
good, but im saying that i think a lot of people on here think that I THINK im a pro, which is false.. stop assuming who i am, and who you think i think i am, and everything will be fine.. its all selective memory, as i have admitted many negative things about myself, and many things that clearly tell you im not a super AP, yet people forget about those things and forget that i am on here to learn, but i do love to type responses and talk, and there is nothing wrong with that.. the entire point of a forum is for somebody to say something, then the person below them says they are not 100% correct, then they discuss it, and the subject gets lots of answers and/or solved.. a lot of times when a guest is reading something, they will read something somebody says that is wrong, but they will think "ya, thats what i think too", and then below they will find out that is not true.. sometimes a few people on this forum tend to be ignorant and not listen when 5 people are telling them they are 100% wrong, but i am not one of those people at all, i welcome being corrected, but not criticized, insulted, and general asshole like commentsRG1 said: