Progression suggestions

[Dopple]

I would like to hear some progression suggestions for single and double deck or even shoe games if anyone has any.

I bet with shoe games you are going to be flat betting much of the time but when your count started get a little positive you might want to enact some kind of progression system.

Thanks for the Osama Bin Laden pictures.

 

[BJinNJ]

Might I Suggest the Kelly system?

Seems like 1/4 or 1/2 Kelly is the smart way to go.

BJinNJ

 

[Kasi]

I would like to hear some progression suggestions for... even shoe games if anyone has any.
I bet with shoe games you are going to be flat betting much of the time but when your count started get a little positive you might want to enact some kind of progression system.

I've always thought one could use small progressions with no loss at all in EV between TC's to average out to what you wanted your bet to be anyway perhaps looking like an idiot in the meantime to the powers that be.

Like maybe 1,2,3 at a +TC you're betting 2 units anyway kind of thing.

 

[Dopple]

One person said they had a progression that allowed you to maintain a spread but was hard to notice.

My plan is play with very good cover at first and kind of feel out the town and then I can start making bolder moves like maybe even hitting my 14 vs. a 4 or doubling 8 vs. 5, which I think is one of the illustrious 18 mentioned by Schlessinger.

People say I don't need cover with a 2k bankroll but I want to play it safe.

 

[Sonny]

People say I don't need cover with a 2k bankroll but I want to play it safe.

If you want to play it safe then don’t use any cover at all. Any cover you use will just drain money from your bankroll and increase your chances of losing it all. What good is longevity if you don’t have a bankroll to play with? Progressions can be especially dangerous because they involve frequent overbetting and underbetting. Most casinos won’t be concerned with your level of play anyway so don’t bother.

It’s tough to make money at this game even when you play aggressively. Having a small bankroll means that you will have to take advantage of every edge you can find. The stronger you play, the safer you’ll be.

-Sonny-

 

[Dopple]

Okay we will see. I think opening with 10 in a single deck game then dropping to 5 or working up to 40 will bring heat but I will find out. There is a spread of spread of 8 there so you double sometimes on the 40 and it is 16x.

I remember the Gold Dust in Deadwood had a little double deck game and I would real wildly bounce from 5 to 75 and they just shut the table down for a couple days. I am not bragging about any great skill here but I don't want to foul up a fun little part time hobby.

So in not using cover it you would drop all or almost all proper calls. You would not worry hitting the 16 vs 6 if the count dictated or even the bold spitting of tens? You could pop up to 40 on the second hand and dump down to 5 if the count crashed? You might be right but I could see pulling in a quick 2-300 in an hour or two and I just think they will be coming down on you.

 

[Sonny]

You would not worry hitting the 16 vs 6 if the count dictated or even the bold spitting of tens? You could pop up to 40 on the second hand and dump down to 5 if the count crashed?

I might forgo splitting tens, but knowing when to double eights will make up for that. If the count were low enough to hit a 16 vs. 6 (-13?!) then I would either sit out that hand or find another table (either a fresh table or one that I can Wong into). There are lots of cover plays that can actually increase your EV. Your bet spread is fine as long as you can justify it.

As far as shoe games go, you don’t need to worry about cover because you won’t be playing most of the hands. If you come in with a 2-unit bet and spread to 8 units, that only looks like a 1-4 spread to the pit. If your playing 2 hands then it may look like even less. This also works for Wonging pitch games.

You might be right but I could see pulling in a quick 2-300 in an hour or two and I just think they will be coming down on you.

If you look like a card counter then you will get heat. If you act like a card counter then you will get heat. If you stay at the same table like a sitting duck then you will get heat. If the pit does not have any other distractions then you will get heat. Otherwise you will be able to play all you want. I used to use the same spread (except I would start with $5 bets off the top) at the El Cortez and they never had a problem with it. It all depends on how you pull it off.

There’s nothing wrong with using a few cover plays here and there, but to always make certain plays or bets that you know are wrong is very costly. You should only need to lay down a little cover per session. Once they like your action you can play aggressively all you want. If you want to use a progression system for a few minutes while you’re being watched then that’s fine, but don’t play like that all the time.

With that spread you are looking at about $12 per 100 hands with a 16% RoR. Any cover you lay down (even an occasional misplay) will either lower your profit, raise your risk or both. With such a small bankroll you can’t really afford to handicap yourself too much. The good news is that your long run index is very low so your bankroll should grow relatively fast.

-Sonny-

 

[Dopple]

Okay that helps alot. I will move around and not stay in any one pit for more than one hour like they mention. I used to camp out alot.

I have plenty of experience with the game but want to be careful about my act.

Wendover has a great 3 night package with room and air for $139.00 and I don't want to burn my bridges.

I see your -13 for the hitting 16 vs. 6 roughly matches UAPCs value of -14.

The main thing for me will be to manage bank well, now if I am about $300 over my original br there is no reason to not pull the stops and throw the money back at them until I fall back down to my original br if I so choose. In my opinion.

 

[Knox]

I did pretty well with a 1 unit to 2 x 2 unit progression on DD. You need to find a place that does not force you to play 2x the min for two hands. Then start with 1 unit. I used KO key count to make my first move up to 2 x 1 unit. If the count tanks and I am winning or at least breaking even (one win, one loss on a round), I keep playing the 2 x 1 bets. If I lose both or lose one and push the other, I am back to 1 hand if the count is bad, or off to the bathroom. If the count is good I keep the 2 x 1 bets out until I start winning, and if the count gets at or near the KO pivot point (max bet count), I was betting 2 x 2 units.

This works out where I am playing 2 hands most of the time, but the drop to one hand appears to be a natural response to the ebb and flow of my won/loss streaks at the time. In other words, I am building cover into this strategy. I also start most shoes a 2 x 1 units unless I am just getting an ass beating. That way I am taking advantage of the reduced variance associated with playing two hands more often, while enjoying the extra EV.

Many places would let you play for hours with this bet pattern, although I agree that once you hit an hour of play you ought to be looking to hit the door soon.

Ok Sonny, beat the tar out of me for my voodoo system. (aw come on, it's not that terrible is it?)

 

[Dopple]

I like the idea of starting out with two nickles side by side if they allow it because of the variance angle and also you can get more on the table easier too.

I might give it a shot. Thanks

 

[Knox]

YW. Yeah, the problem with the 2x min requirement for two hands is if your unit is $5, you suddenly are having to play $20 just to get two hands out. Then it is harder to spread into two hands as much within your ROR and bankroll parameters. You would have to play from 2 x $10 up to 2 x $50 just to achieve a 1-5 spread if you wanted to always play two hands. The math gets even uglier at the $25 bet level.

While loss of EV is an obvious disadvantage, a lower bet spread has some benefits too. The greatest gain in EV comes from the first unit increase, 1-2 spread. There are diminishing returns for each additional unit of spread added, e.g. 1-3 does not gain you as much as 1-2 did, 1-4 did not gain you as much as 1-3 did, and so on. And of course, the lower bet spread reduces the level of scrutiny from the house.

If you are trying to nurse a small bankroll, a low bet spread probably makes sense. If you have a large bankroll for your unit size and small ROR, by all means try to spread 1-5 or slightly better on DD and 1-10+ on 6D.

Edit: I just went back and reread your bankroll size of $2000 and Sonny's ROR calculation of 16%. That is a relatively high ROR to me. I would tend to be conservative in that situation unless you don't mind a 200+ unit swing or even losing the whole amount. If you are replenishable on the bankroll then fire away, if not I would spread no more than 1-5 on SD/DD and avoid 6D.