Proof that progressions don't work for the mathematically challenged

[pit15]

Go into a casino and announce that you're going to martingale or use some other progression and start playing. Say you're increasing your bet according to this this and that rule while talking about how great your system is and how you can beat the house.

Go into a casino and start counting out loud and when you increase your bet say "well, true count's at +3, better bet 3 units!" on every index play give the mathematical explanation of why this move is correct.

Now even those that don't believe the math behind it, they would have to believe the casino wouldn't let them play if the casino knew what they were doing and knew they were losing money to them. Granted some places would half shoe you for martingaling since they don't tolerate spreading period but that's pretty rare

 

[Walter T.]

Go into a casino and announce that you're going to martingale or use some other progression and start playing. Say you're increasing your bet according to this this and that rule while talking about how great your system is and how you can beat the house.

Go into a casino and start counting out loud and when you increase your bet say "well, true count's at +3, better bet 3 units!" on every index play give the mathematical explanation of why this move is correct.

Now even those that don't believe the math behind it, they would have to believe the casino wouldn't let them play if the casino knew what they were doing and knew they were losing money to them. Granted some places would half shoe you for martingaling since they don't tolerate spreading period but that's pretty rare

What did you just prove? That both types of players can be restricted because of their system of play?

 

[prankster]

Go into a casino and announce that you're going to martingale or use some other progression and start playing. Say you're increasing your bet according to this this and that rule while talking about how great your system is and how you can beat the house.

Go into a casino and start counting out loud and when you increase your bet say "well, true count's at +3, better bet 3 units!" on every index play give the mathematical explanation of why this move is correct.

Now even those that don't believe the math behind it, they would have to believe the casino wouldn't let them play if the casino knew what they were doing and knew they were losing money to them. Granted some places would half shoe you for martingaling since they don't tolerate spreading period but that's pretty rare

Players can be shown the door simply because they're winning!:joker:

 

[victorino]

Go into a casino and announce that you're going to martingale or use some other progression and start playing. Say you're increasing your bet according to this this and that rule while talking about how great your system is and how you can beat the house.

Go into a casino and start counting out loud and when you increase your bet say "well, true count's at +3, better bet 3 units!" on every index play give the mathematical explanation of why this move is correct.

Now even those that don't believe the math behind it, they would have to believe the casino wouldn't let them play if the casino knew what they were doing and knew they were losing money to them. Granted some places would half shoe you for martingaling since they don't tolerate spreading period but that's pretty rare

And...QED. :devil:

 

[aslan]

What did you just prove? That both types of players can be restricted because of their system of play?

If a savvy surveillance person were watching you martingale, believe me they wouldn't half-shoe you. But if he saw you counting, he most certainly would unless he evaluated you as a poor counter who would lose his money to the house. If you perchance began beating the house you would be half-shoed or otherwise restrained in a heartbeat. I think this is all the OP meant.

Sure you can get backed off just by betting big, but not by any savvy person. These kind of backoffs are generally made by uninformed pit persons. Betting big is their only clue to counting. Fortunately, they usually are not allowed to make counting calls unless they themselves are counters. There ususal recourse is to request a player evaluation by the eye in the sky, many of whom are qualified to ID counters.

 

[pit15]

What did you just prove? That both types of players can be restricted because of their system of play?

No, quite the opposite. The martingaler will NOT be restricted by any competent casino.

 

[tthree]

I agree with pit15. The table limit bet spread is already set up to deal with the martingaler. The casino knows you will win for a while and then give it back and then some all at once. Given this knowledge they will do everything to keep you gambling at their casino because the casino that breaks the winning run enjoys all the reward. Letting you win and chasing you away is the worst thing they could do.

 

[MangoJ]

Even a casino has to respect Kelly criterion. If BJ have a regular 0.5% edge, for a $50k hand they would need more than $10M in fortune (unless they insure those bets elsewhere).