Question about basic strategy

[JoeInPA]

Assume we are starting with a newly shuffled deck, so the count = 0. If I have a 14 against the dealer's 5, most strategies I've seen recommend standing, but it seems to me that I would be better off hitting. The dealer only has a 42% chance of busting, so if I stand, I know i will lose more than half the time. On the other hand, I will bust less than half the time (46%) on my next card if I hit on my 14, so I'm not sure why I should stand. Even with a 15 against a 5, I can still expect to bust less frequently than I would lose if I were to stand.

Any insights would be appreciated.

 

[Canceler]

Not the whole answer, but...

There's more to it than whether you or the dealer is going to bust or not. You also have to consider who is going to end up with the best hand total if neither of you busts. This is factored into basic strategy.

Just something to think about.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Hitting will cost you an extra $10.24 per $100 bet for deviating from BS!

 

[shadroch]

Assume we are starting with a newly shuffled deck, so the count = 0. If I have a 14 against the dealer's 5, most strategies I've seen recommend standing, but it seems to me that I would be better off hitting. The dealer only has a 42% chance of busting, so if I stand, I know i will lose more than half the time. On the other hand, I will bust less than half the time (46%) on my next card if I hit on my 14, so I'm not sure why I should stand. Even with a 15 against a 5, I can still expect to bust less frequently than I would lose if I were to stand.

Any insights would be appreciated.

What you are not factoring in is what your next card will be.Yes,you will bust only 46% on your next card,but an Ace or a two doesn't help you at all.
You'd still need the dealer to bust to win.So you really only improve your hand by getting a 3,4,5,6 or 7.Seven cards will bust you or cause you to hit again. Let the dealer bust,not you.

 

[JoeInPA]

What you are not factoring in is what your next card will be.Yes,you will bust only 46% on your next card,but an Ace or a two doesn't help you at all.
You'd still need the dealer to bust to win.So you really only improve your hand by getting a 3,4,5,6 or 7.Seven cards will bust you or cause you to hit again. Let the dealer bust,not you.

Thanks for the quick responses. I already understand some of this, but I don't necessarily agree with all of it. If I get an ace or 2, I dont improve my hand, but I am not obligated to hit again either, so it really doesnt matter whether I hit or not.

In the brief time since I made my original post, I did a few more calculations, with the following:
If I hit with a 14 against a dealer's 10:
42% of the time, I would lose when standing would have won
26% of the time, I would lose whether I stood or not.

This leaves 31% of the time where neither I bust with 1 hit nor the dealer busts. I would have lost all of these hands if I had stood, but will lose only some of them by hitting. If I interpret my numbers correctly, this difference of no more than 31% obviously doesnt make up for the 42% that I lose when I bust.

This assumes that the cards are independent. If I am sitting to the dealer's right, then my hit card is the same as the dealer's third card, so this assumption of independence is not necessarily true. Can anyone tell me what the impact of this is? Is there a different basic strategy for the last person to play their hand?

 

[rogue1]

hello Joe

Please-memorize the Basic Strategy 'til you've got it down cold. Don't try to reinvent the wheel it'll drive you nuts. Good luck!

 

[ihate17]

42% of the time?

Thanks for the quick responses. I already understand some of this, but I don't necessarily agree with all of it. If I get an ace or 2, I dont improve my hand, but I am not obligated to hit again either, so it really doesnt matter whether I hit or not.

In the brief time since I made my original post, I did a few more calculations, with the following:
If I hit with a 14 against a dealer's 10:
42% of the time, I would lose when standing would have won
26% of the time, I would lose whether I stood or not.

This leaves 31% of the time where neither I bust with 1 hit nor the dealer busts. I would have lost all of these hands if I had stood, but will lose only some of them by hitting. If I interpret my numbers correctly, this difference of no more than 31% obviously doesnt make up for the 42% that I lose when I bust.

This assumes that the cards are independent. If I am sitting to the dealer's right, then my hit card is the same as the dealer's third card, so this assumption of independence is not necessarily true. Can anyone tell me what the impact of this is? Is there a different basic strategy for the last person to play their hand?

Joe, you state that 42% of the time you would have won with your stiff if you stood. How did you get that number?
If you are saying that 42% of the time the dealer must hit because hit will have a 2-5 in the hole, this definately does not mean that he will bust 100% of the time he hits that stiff, but he would need to bust 100% of the time to make your point.
Re-think about this, how often will that dealer bust a 12, 13, or a 14? I think you, after doing this will agree with the rest of us that basic strategy is based on good math.

ihate17