Question about "Flux" and bankroll

[adventureboy]

I started last week with a $10,000 bankroll and had a goal (as always) of doubling it in about 100 hours of play. I just finished playing today and...bang! I doubled it in just under 20 hours. Today's session was great--the count got really positive really fast for 4 decks (double deck) in a row. I kept pushing my max bet out and kept drawing blackjacks and winning doubles. Man, if it were only this way all the time!!!

Question: Should I start a new bankroll with $20,000 and refigure my bet sizes, or should I continue to play out 80 hours with the $10,000 figure in mind? The "flux" god has smiled on me, I have no doubt that a frown is comming!

Thanks in advance for you advice!

BTW--My "total" baknkroll is a little over 50K, I just took 10k as my "Playing" bankroll and tried to double it.

 

[ScottH]

I started last week with a $10,000 bankroll and had a goal (as always) of doubling it in about 100 hours of play. I just finished playing today and...bang! I doubled it in just under 20 hours. Today's session was great--the count got really positive really fast for 4 decks (double deck) in a row. I kept pushing my max bet out and kept drawing blackjacks and winning doubles. Man, if it were only this way all the time!!!

Question: Should I start a new bankroll with $20,000 and refigure my bet sizes, or should I continue to play out 80 hours with the $10,000 figure in mind? The "flux" god has smiled on me, I have no doubt that a frown is comming!

Thanks in advance for you advice!

BTW--My "total" baknkroll is a little over 50K, I just took 10k as my "Playing" bankroll and tried to double it.

You should not keep playing the 80 hours out as planned. You should re-evaluate what you want to do with your newly increased bankroll.

 

[shadroch]

If,as you state,you are sure a frown is coming,perhaps now is not the time to increase your bets.

 

[ScottH]

If,as you state,you are sure a frown is coming,perhaps now is not the time to increase your bets.

Just because he had really good postive variance does not mean he should expect negative variance to even it out.

 

[zengrifter]

I started last week with a $10,000 bankroll and had a goal (as always) of doubling it in about 100 hours of play. I just finished playing today and...bang! I doubled it in just under 20 hours.
BTW--My "total" baknkroll is a little over 50K, I just took 10k as my "Playing" bankroll and tried to double it.

So your BR increased ONLY by 20% so its not time to re-size it yet.

Tell us what your unit size, spread, and max bets are. zg

 

[EasyRhino]

Also, please explain the difference, in your mind, between your total and playing bankrolls.

 

[RikaKazak]

If,as you state,you are sure a frown is coming,perhaps now is not the time to increase your bets.

you're kidding right?

something makes me think you're not....and that makes me sad

should you increase your bankroll? of course...and then if you lose down to say $18K, then redo your unit size again.

Pretty much every "good or bad" stretch you should be readjusting your unit size.

 

[ChefJJ]

In my opinion...you've hit a short-term gain (stating the obvious, I know). Remember, you're expecting somewhere around 0.5 - 1+% long-term advantage on the game. So, if you re-evaluate your bet schedule don't do it based just on those recent gains.

Take your recent 20% gain. If you up your bet levels and experience a 19% loss in the upcoming short-term, does that leave you ahead?

good luck

 

[adventureboy]

Well, that was a pretty diverse range of answers. As to some of your questions:
1. I play 25 unit with a 1-8 unit spread. However, on true counts of +10 or more I bet 16 units. This is what happened last session and kept winning my big bets for several decks in a row!
2. My total bankroll is just that--my total funds available for blackjack.
My "playing" bankroll is the amount I physically taken out in cash and also the amount that I am looking to double....but I size my bets according to my "total" bankroll. My max bet of 400 means that I have over 100 big bets of cushion for negative flux.

I am now adding the 10K win to my "total" bankroll, bringing me to 60K.

Is the answer to my question simply a matter of how aggresive I want to be? Or am I being foolish to even consider the potential of negative flux?

 

[21forme]

Another thing to consider is the larger your bets, the more scrutiny you'll receive while you play. Do you play for recreation or to augment your living/lifestyle? It all depends how greedy you are and how much risk you wish to take..

 

[EasyRhino]

So, it's a 1:8, and sometimes 1:16, spread? Interesting.

Anyway, size your max bets in proportion to your total bankroll. And size your trip bankroll proportionately. Piece of cake. (barring other considerations like table mins/maxes, cover, risk-tolerance, etc)

 

[adventureboy]

Thanks for the reponses guys.
To 21forme: No, I do not play for a living! The thought of paying my mortgage and feeding my family on the turn of a card would probably freak me out and cause me to make some bad decisions at the table. Fortunately, my job allows my to get to the tables on a pretty regular basis. My winnings do afford us some nice extras that we would otherwise not be able to come near. I play in Mississippi and Louisiana and have never felt any serious "heat". However, I'm sure if I were playing for a living with a 200k bankroll and making big bets of 2,000, my play would recieve a lot more scrutiny.

 

[Kasi]

So, it's a 1:8, and sometimes 1:16, spread? Interesting.
Anyway, size your max bets in proportion to your total bankroll. And size your trip bankroll proportionately.

OK guys and gals, bear with me. I've never had to much worry about this complicated stuff like bankroll, ROR, bet size and bet spread lol. Although the entire subject interests me for some reason. So, while I've read a bunch of books, I've never worried about understanding it in any great detail.

Assuming he's playing a DD game all the time, dealt who knows how far since he never said, but, whatever, some reasonable amount, would betting 16 units be perhaps overbetting with a !0K trip bankroll since it's only 25 big-bet units for his trip bankroll? But perhaps not with a 50K lifetime bankroll?

I mean is a $25 unit for a 10K bankroll spreading 1-8 a high unit compared to Kelly?

Or is it a low unit based on a 50K bankroll?

Overall I guess I thought one bet according to one's trip bankroll rather than lifetime bankroll.

Thanks for any help.

 

[Cardcounter]

Keep testing your skills at the same level for awhile!

Do not raise the size of your units especially because playing for a living will make you nervous if you think losing a big bet is no big deal and just part of the game you will be a very succesful blackjack player. If you are playing with an advantage a 400 unit playing bankroll should not be craked. Having 400 units is a huge luxory! If you get a some super unusual hand like splitting to 4 hands you could have 32 units on the table and there is about a 15% chance you will lose all four hands! All though most of the time you will win some of the hands or at least push on some of them!
Why don't you take your $10,000 and try to double it again if you do this process over and over again using $25 units and get your bankroll to a $100,000 than you should be ready to try it with $50 units and your playing bankroll should be $20,000 than! I think that you should try it 4 or 5 more times to prove that you just didn't have a fluke of luck and you really have an advantage! I have seen people turn $200 into $4,800 in one playing session with a disadvantage so sometimes there are flukes of luck but the math will eventually catch up! The math caught up to that one player who won $4,600 he lost more than $10,000 in the next month!

 

[zengrifter]

The bet sizing sounds OK for 50-60k, though I'd not go beyond $400 max bets before the BR is 75k - in other words, as the BR grows reduce the overall ROR. zg

 

[shadroch]

Just because he had really good postive variance does not mean he should expect negative variance to even it out.

Read his post. He is the one that says he is sure a big downturn is coming,not I.
By any stretch of the imagination,he has experianced a very nice run of luck.
Had he won ten football bets in a week,would you advise him to raise his betting level the next week?If not,why would you advise him to do so now.