Question on a (potential) good game I stumbled across

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rumandcoke

New Member
I recently stumbled across a game and am looking for feedback on a few things from the more seasoned players. I have been learning a ton from this site and my game has improved dramatically. I play BS at a 99%+ level and have been using the Hi-Lo system for counting, but haven't done too many games where I spread and play the count as an AP should/could.

The game is a S17, DAS, Double on any 2 cards, split up to 4 times, 4 deck shoe with consistent 70%+ penetration, no surrender, no peek/no hole game. The dealers can be a little on the slower side and very minimal pit heat. The table minimum is $5 and the max is $1000.

According to the casino posting, as well as basic strategy charts online, the dealer edge for this game is about .51%, which is much lower than the normal games I play on vegas (.65ish%).

Here is my question, with my current experience level, should/could I take advantage of this game for a weekend? I will be visiting the area again in about a month and could practice a ton to get any better and memorize all the index plays. I have about $5000 in my current bank roll, which is replenishing, so I could lose all of it and my day to day life wouldn't be affected.

I would need to make at least $1500 in order to be considered successful...can anyone chime in and come up with my risk of ruin and/or suggestions on this?

Thanks in advance.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
Umm, I don't think .51% is right, I think it's a little lower than that. Anyways, if you want to have a $5k trip bankroll that you don't care about losing, I'd back-count it, using a $25 unit, spreading 1-8, hitting 8 units at maybe +6.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
rumandcoke said:
The game is a S17, DAS, Double on any 2 cards, split up to 4 times, 4 deck shoe with consistent 70%+ penetration, no surrender, no peek/no hole game. The dealers can be a little on the slower side and very minimal pit heat. The table minimum is $5 and the max is $1000.
Click to expand...
What is the %pene? Always give the pene! zg
 
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rumandcoke

New Member
zengrifter said:
What is the %pene? Always give the pene! zg
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I listed in the original post that the penetration was consistently in the 70% range. I could have completely miscalculated, but with only 4 decks, its was pretty easy to estimate.
 
B

blackriver

Well-Known Member
in a weekend you'll probably play 15 hours? If you spread 50-600 and play all(with bathroom wonging) you'll prob easily have an expected value above $100/hr. 100*15=$1500. I imagine your result however is more likely to be going busto or even doubling your roll than to end up winning between 1-2k.

100 min bets is plenty for a session roll but short for a trip roll. If your there Friday eve thru Sunday afternoon you should back count Friday with a smaller spread as moon suggested for 5hrs (but $50 min). If you start sliding early reduce ur min bet to the suggested $25 but increase your spread (1-16) and playall/wong rather than $50 back counting. Anytime ur above 5k go $50-600PA/W, hopefully that's what you Saturday(playing ~8hrs) looks like. If on Sunday (playing ~2hrs) you are up any ammount try spreading 1-16 or $100min back counting.

This schedule is somewhat natural and might be what you (and maybe even ploppies) woulda stumbled into on your own. playing a bit more conservatively at the beginning or if you hit a downswing and play more agressively toward the end or as you win a little. This strategy assumes u don't care if u go broke during the trip but doing so early would be frustrating and on Sunday would be trivial. Try to spend as much of your time as you can doing $50playall, mixing in 25-40% back counting at the beginning of sessions and when its easy to do w/o looking obvious. I never play red chip games though so maybe u actually can get away with back counting the entire time.
 
A

alwayssplitaces

Well-Known Member
Is this game far away from you or is it close to home? This sounds like the game you can milk for a long time if you're a local, so you wouldn't want to take $100/hour for just a weekend and get backed off when you could take maybe $50/hour for months. Bets over $500 attract extra attention.
 
R

rumandcoke

New Member
alwayssplitaces said:
Is this game far away from you or is it close to home? This sounds like the game you can milk for a long time if you're a local, so you wouldn't want to take $100/hour for just a weekend and get backed off when you could take maybe $50/hour for months. Bets over $500 attract extra attention.
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It isn't someplace that is easily accessible. I stumbled across it while visiting my girlfriend and am happening to go back to visit her again this Spring before she moves closer. Even if I go back to the area, which is a possibility, it wouldn't be more than once a year. So I'm not too worried about getting alot of attention...as long as I can last there a weekend.

I appreciate all the advice and suggestions. I'm going to keep practicing and see what I can do when I go back.
 
N

NightStalker

Well-Known Member
bet hi-lo

2hands of (True count-1)x unit

if 5k is your total bank, unit=10$,
If 5k is your trip bank, unit=25$.. You will lose bank one out of 5 times..
 
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