questions

[Splitz]

1.) Can someone verify a couple of these Ill 18 indices for me

13 v 2 hit at < 0
12 v 4 hit at < or equal 0

next, I got BJA by Don S. and as Rob M. said.. it is an advanced book. (I knew I should taken statistics this yr instead of pre-calc!)

after reading through a few sections, I am a little confused about: S.D. and RoR. How do I make real use of this info? or is it just merely for peace of mind.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

13 v 2 hit at < 0 YES
12 v 4 hit at < or equal 0 YES

http://webhome.idirect.com/~blakjack/flashadv.htm

next, I got BJA by Don S. and as Rob M. said.. it is an advanced book. (I knew I should taken statistics this yr instead of pre-calc!)

$It will begin to mean more to you as time goes by. Hang onto that book.

after reading through a few sections, I am a little confused about: S.D. and RoR. How do I make real use of this info? or is it just merely for peace of mind.

$ Bell curve got you down? Afraid of losing all of your money? Do a little looking around on the net for some more understandable info on these two items.

In simple terms, SD is A statistic used as a measure of the dispersion or variation in a distribution, equal to the square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of the deviations from the arithmetic mean.

WHAT? Crazy eh? If you bet $5 hand all night long vs bj you should win or lose X amount above and below the -ev of the game. This number changes when you bet more and your ev changes.

coin flip is usually used for this to give you an example. You could end up at x below or above 0. With bj using bs no indices no increase in bets it will be x below or above -$y.00 With indices and increase in bets re the count it will be xx above or below +$z.00

example
(Dead link: http://www.beyondtechnology.com/tips016.shtml)

RoR
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ror/ror.htm (Archive copy)

here is a calculator to help you out:

http://www.qfit.com/CVRoRC.htm

Hope this will help you understand these two important issues.

 

[BradRod]

*****RESPONSES ARE IN CAPS*******

1.) Can someone verify a couple of these Ill 18 indices for me

13 v 2 hit at < 0 THE ACTUAL INDEX IS -1
12 v 4 hit at < or equal 0 THIS IS CORRECT
next, I got BJA by Don S. and as Rob M. said.. it is an advanced book. (I knew I should taken statistics this yr instead of pre-calc!)

SEE TABLE 5.1 OF BJA

after reading through a few sections, I am a little confused about: S.D. and RoR. How do I make real use of this info? or is it just merely for peace of mind.

I'D LIKE TO KNOW MORE ABOUT THIS ALSO ..

 

[BradRod]

Rob,

Thanks for your comments about SD and RoR. Together with the links they were vbery helpful in understanding.

regarding : "13 v 2 hit at < 0 YES". Did that change since BJA or am I misreading it ? My version says -1.

Thanks,

Brad

 

[Rob McGarvey]

The actual # could be somewhere in between these two numbers, say -0.41, so you can play it as -1 to be on the safe side, risk aversive. Hit at -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 etc with minimum bet out and play basic otherwise.

 

[zengrifter]

Re: Questions ROUNDING...

"regarding : "13 v 2 hit at < 0 YES". Did that change since BJA or am I misreading it ? My version says -1. "
-------------------

"Cross index rounding" of the radical kind, is a speed and intuition facilitator - for example: all index#s of +1,0,-1 can be rounded to 0, and +2,+3,+4 rounded to +3, etc, with NO loss of statistical-power, at least not enough that you could experience the loss in 5 lifetimes of full-time play. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Re: Questions NOT RA -

"... so you can play it as -1 to be on the safe side, risk aversive. "
---------------

Thats not an example of risk-averse play or logic. And, we already covered that whether he chooses intermittantly to hit or stand at -1 will have NO statistical impact on his results.

zg(not qualified to explain Rob's mistake, only to point it out, in this instance)

 

[The Mayor]

Re: Questions NOT RA -

RA - my uninformed opinion.

There are two ways to choose between making a decision. One way is to always make the play that increases EV. That is the normal index. The other way is to always choose (only in those cases when we have the advantage!) to increase the quotient EV/SD. In the second case, we make the play that increases the SCORE of the game, not the EV, that is the RA scheme, and the RA indices are those that make a decision based on producing the largest value of EV/SD. RA does not apply to negative EV situations.

Please correct me!

--Mayor

 

[Rob McGarvey]

In Your Estimation....

how many times will this situation pop up and how much of a difference does it make in dollars and cents to the player by hitting at 0 instead of -1TC? I think we will all agree that it is not worth our time to figure this out because the diff is so small. The exact point of making this play could be at a running count point between 0 and -1 which will move as we go from 6 to 5 to 4 to 3 to 2 decks. At the end of the day you may want to hit or stand depending on who you want to piss off or throw off at the table! ;>