Quick Question on Bonus Strategy?

zengrifter

Banned
The Plaza has a Bonus Offer -

Buy in for $5000 and receive $5500 in "PLAY ONLY" chips. Can be played at craps or baccarrat ONLY.

What is the best (safest) way to solo play the full $5500? zg
 

zengrifter

Banned
Clarification - *LINK*

Playing both pass/don't or player/bank is not doable because they can discontinue the play and take the bonus away. Must play only one side.

How safe (RoR) would it be to bet $100 per decision? How about $50 per? zg
 

SammyBoy

Well-Known Member
Questions

How many times do you need to wager the $5500? I would probably bet a small amount on the pass line and then play max odds if I could get 10x odds or better.
 
Safest way to play it

The safest way would be in the smallest increments possible. Any regular bet. Usually I'd rather Come, but sometimes it's more satisfying when you Don't Come and let somebody else do it. Every time you win, you have to pull the live chip back and replay the non-cashable one. Using this method, as your betting increment approaches zero, your return should approach EV, which I recall is around 99% for that game. Not bad for a 10% bonus.

The other matter is that as your betting unit approaches zero, your time spent playing your bonus chips will approach infinity! So you have to calculate: the value of your time, the expected length of a hand of craps, and how much additional risk you are willing to accept in exchange for finishing this mission quicker and going to do something else. That's your homework assignment, don't ask me to grade it, it's been forever since I've done that stuff!
 
RoR near zero

The RoR for either is near zero because you would have to lose every bet in order to be ruined. You only have to play through the chips once, right? Your expectation should be about the same as playing 50 to 100 hands of BJ in a crappy shoe game. I'd find a fast, uncrowded table and play the $50 increments if it was me.
 

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
This is almost exactly like online bonus hustling

This is almost exactly like playing online bonuses with a certain play-through to get the bonus. I would defer to the online bonus experts for this type of information. I will ask a friend to check out this question and offer his opinion.

--Mayor
 

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
From a trusted friend...

From a trusted friend...
=============================

This promo is more like a sticky bonus than a regular bonus. But the "bonus" remains in your "account" after you finish your "playthrough". BUT as I understand you have to keep playing at the table til you lose your bonus.

Lots of ways to play it and of course everybody has their own personal
(ill-defined) definition of "optimal" or "best" (case in point is zengrifter's best/safest goal). Some people will say hail marying the whole thing would be best EVwise, others will say going for a stop win is best. I guess I'll try and draw up a list of constraints and see what gets spat out.

Variables:
"buy-in"
bet size
(chosen game)

Personal Constraints/Info:
bankroll (number of times you can play the bonus) maximum global RoR acceptable minimum $/hr acceptable session time maximum (I can't imagine playing craps for more than a few hours at a time)

Casino Constraints/Info:
table limits
bonus %
bonus limits
(game edge)
(game variance)

Everybody is going to have different values for these (and most people will play differently than they state). I'd use the mobj_ror1.xls spreadsheet from bjmath.com.

Total action you expect to have to give = (amount you have to
lose)/(0.5-edge)
Expected loss = edge*Atotal
Profit = Bonus + ExpLoss
Profit/hr = (Profit/Rounds)*(Rounds/hr)...Rounds = Atot/Betsize RoR related to bankroll and betsize, use mobj_ror1.xls (normal distribution)

Using a game edge of -0.01, stddev of 1, promo of 5000/500, betsize 100, and 50 rounds/hr as an example:
Atotal = $10784
ExpLoss = -$107.84
Profit = +$392.16
Profit/hr = +$181.82
RoR for this promo (survival criterion)= zilch
 
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