Quitting when Behind?

[InPlay]

Yeah...and..

Whats your point? Yes the money will come if doing your thing means playing a smart, good game. The what ifs don't mean anything to me. What if I have a big loss? So what, thats built into my money management system and I have sized my unit in relation to my bankroll and not only can I withstand the loss, I expect them. What if the losses are bigger than expected for a longer period of time? So what, then its time to evaluate my play and to change my unit size if the cut into my bankroll is too great. What if there is heat at a casino and I can't play there anymore? So what, play somewhere else. It is about the money, so I would never limit myself to the places I play. Staying fresh to the casinos, especially with higher stakes requires movement. If you don't want to do that I suggest not going to your local casino every week, and playing lower stakes that won't put you too readily on the radar.

The what ifs can go both ways and their can be positive ones too. If you really do play with an advantage, you will see them too, and good luck may seemingly become more abundant. There will always be negative variance, and bad luck, so what, thats the game. If you run out of money, odds are you either did something very wrong, or played risk be damned. Either way thats not for me, and the what ifs are already accounted for.

I guess it's still called gambling.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Where's The Casino, Need to Build My IRA!

I guess it's still called gambling.

I once looked up in the dictionary the definitions of gambling and investing and they were similar. It seemed the words were just rearanged:joker:

Some definitions can be:

gambling you put your money in a negative situation and hope its grows.
AP play is putting your money in a positive situation and knowing it will grow.

 

[InPlay]

I once looked up in the dictionary the definitions of gambling and investing and they were similar. It seemed the words were just rearanged:joker:

Some definitions can be:

gambling you put your money in a negative situation and hope its grows.
AP play is putting your money in a positive situation and knowing it will grow.

What would you call Wall Street the biggest casino in the world or a rigged game with the house being insider traders ? Would that be gambling or investing ? :joker:

 

[blackjack avenger]

From Casino to Circus?

What would you call Wall Street the biggest casino in the world or a rigged game with the house being insider traders ? Would that be gambling or investing ? :joker:

I originally put AP play and investing in the positive situation phrase, I decided to pull the word investing:laugh:

You can run into rigged games in a casino/investment house:joker: .

As far as the stock market, maybe it depends on your perception or your reality:whip:

 

[InPlay]

I originally put AP play and investing in the positive situation phrase, I decided to pull the word investing:laugh:

You can run into rigged games in a casino/investment house:joker: .

As far as the stock market, maybe it depends on your perception or your reality:whip:

Perception of reality of life in the real world it's all called GAMBLING whether you have an advantage or not unless it's fixed or rigged and you are on the inside.

 

[Kasi]

Perception of reality of life in the real world it's all called GAMBLING whether you have an advantage or not unless it's fixed or rigged and you are on the inside.

Well, like Bojack said, it's all gambling since there's always risk involved. The only difference is that Blackjack's small fixed universe is controlled by the laws of probability and is known and predictable. In that sense maybe it's not gambling because at least you know ahead of time exactly what to expect and can choose to play or not.

I wish Wall Street only had 52-416 random variables lol.

I don't even know why I'm here between Bojack and Systemtrader's

"Exactly, the money doesn't matter! It is all about playing your positive EV system flawlessly."

Perhaps some good advice to at least think about anyway.

 

[InPlay]

Well, like Bojack said, it's all gambling since there's always risk involved. The only difference is that Blackjack's small fixed universe is controlled by the laws of probability and is known and predictable. In that sense maybe it's not gambling because at least you know ahead of time exactly what to expect and can choose to play or not.

I wish Wall Street only had 52-416 random variables lol.

I don't even know why I'm here between Bojack and Systemtrader's

"Exactly, the money doesn't matter! It is all about playing your positive EV system flawlessly."

Perhaps some good advice to at least think about anyway.

I agree "playing your positive EV system flawlessly" but their always is that risk what you call gambling. That's my view on it. Some people assume you just play a million hands and you will make money. Maybe, maybe not !

 

[Kasi]

I agree "playing your positive EV system flawlessly" but their always is that risk what you call gambling. That's my view on it. Some people assume you just play a million hands and you will make money. Maybe, maybe not !

Hey I know what you're saying and it's true there's risk in everything we do including risking money playing cards lol. But, practically speaking, if you lasted 1 million hands playing a system, you've probably won so much money you couldn't go broke in the next 10,000,000 hands lol.

Or you lost all your money 800,000 hands ago lol.

 

[InPlay]

Hey I know what you're saying and it's true there's risk in everything we do including risking money playing cards lol. But, practically speaking, if you lasted 1 million hands playing a system, you've probably won so much money you couldn't go broke in the next 10,000,000 hands lol.

Or you lost all your money 800,000 hands ago lol.

I probally have not played a million hands I only have been playing for 7 + years. In those 7 years I am on the plus side. Does this mean once I hit the dreaded 1,000,000 hands I will turn to the downside due to the law of proballity or will I countuine to rise to the upside ?

 

[blackjack avenger]

What What If's

What about the money ? Next you will tell me its all about playing and not the money and money will come with doing your thing. What about the what IF'S factor ?

Money will come with doing the "right" thing. Play correctly, a tight game and you will arrive. No one can play like a machine. To defend yourself against human error just underbet.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Money will come with doing the "right" thing. Play correctly, a tight game and you will arrive. No one can play like a machine. To defend yourself against human error just underbet.

No the biggest problems inexperienced players have are:

1. Overbetting
2. Underbetting

Given the scale of the math it is difficult to visualize just how easy it is to lose $10K playing a $25 game... until you do it. And at the same time look how many people have written thinking they can beat AC blackjack with a 1-4 spread. Those are the real errors, and they're made before you even sit down at the table.

What you actually do at the table doesn't matter all that much, compared to walking into the casino with insufficient funding, unrealistic expectations or an inappropriate betting strategy.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Losses, There Are No Losses in BJ! LOL

no i meant "negative". if you are down money then you can leave banking a loss at the casino.
clearly we are all playing +EV games.
so can i get someone of the guys to weigh in on the article by johnny c? i thought it was really good. are we agreeing that the info there is still relevant today and very useful?

Losing sessions will help disapate heat.
Losing sessions will help with comps.
Large losing sessions can lead to bonus comps.

If you are losing then you can probably hang around a little longer.
If you score a large win then leaving early may be prudent.
If you follow the 2 items above you can maintain an adequate average time.

You mentioned playing .5 hrs to 1.5 hrs. Well, if you spread your bets then you will average about 1 hot shoe where you are betting big. Those big bets will mostly determine whether you win or lose for the session because given the short period of time those may be the only big bets you get. If you have the big bet shoe and lose, there is your loss. If you win or break about even you can try another big bet shoe to see if you can knock the win down.

You can manipulate your bets with some kind of positive progression to accumulate many frequent small losses with the occasional large win, but as you move farther away from betting optiamlly you pay a higher price.

 

[sagefr0g]

..........

You mentioned playing .5 hrs to 1.5 hrs. Well, if you spread your bets then you will average about 1 hot shoe where you are betting big. Those big bets will mostly determine whether you win or lose for the session because given the short period of time those may be the only big bets you get. If you have the big bet shoe and lose, there is your loss. If you win or break about even you can try another big bet shoe to see if you can knock the win down.

.....

lol, i really like that. great little concise packet of inderstanding one can fit into a whole philosophy of the little venture one might be taking when heading for the tables and when leaving the tables. to where ok this is how it is and thats that. so no need for all this goofy worry about this and worrry about that, woulda, coulda shoulda stuff lol.

 

[InPlay]

To defend yourself against human error just underbet.

That's the biggest mistake a gambler will make is to underbet when he has a +, you have to take advantage of your +'s otherwise if you do not max your opportunity's you might as well stay home.

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Agree

No the biggest problems inexperienced players have are:

1. Overbetting
2. Underbetting

Given the scale of the math it is difficult to visualize just how easy it is to lose $10K playing a $25 game... until you do it. And at the same time look how many people have written thinking they can beat AC blackjack with a 1-4 spread. Those are the real errors, and they're made before you even sit down at the table.

What you actually do at the table doesn't matter all that much, compared to walking into the casino with insufficient funding, unrealistic expectations or an inappropriate betting strategy.

Fear of Proper Betting, insufficient preparation, underfunding, vodoo and unrealistic expectations all undermine players.

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Agree Butttt

That's the biggest mistake a gambler will make is to underbet when he has a +, you have to take advantage of your +'s otherwise if you do not max your opportunity's you might as well stay home.

Underbetting does not mean not maxing when appropriate. I am referring to not overestimating one's advantage.

 

[Bojack1]

Fear of Proper Betting, insufficient preparation, underfunding, vodoo and unrealistic expectations all undermine players.

Yes, and doing this all right is just a part of what I mean about playing correctly. If you don't prepare yourself, you will be playing a poor game regardless of your counting method or your proficiency at it.

As far as Monkeys statement that you can't win in A.C. with a 1-4 spread, thats not entirely true. If you play aggressively there which you should, and wong in and out so not to be playing any negative situations, a 1-4 will give you a positive E.V. In a place like A.C. you can be as aggressive as your body can handle, and only play and spread while having the advantage. The better advice is to not play all, and at least do some form of wonging, preferably wonging in to positive situations. If wonging intimidates you or conditions won't regularly allow it, than yes if you play negative hands you will need a bigger spread. Just remember though, tables that look full many times are not. I find that most players see a crowd of people around a table and assume its full. Make sure you check out the actual table not the people around it. A lot of times there are spots open because there are more spectators than players.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Underbetting

Betting less then perhaps a full Kelly fraction; or whatever fraction one chooses, given human error.

given:

Betting double fixed Kelly is a 36.8% ror.
Betting half fixed Kelly is a 1.83% ror.

So given human error it would probably be better to bet .75 to .90 Kelly if you are trying to achieve Kelly fixed bets. Slightly underbetting is preferred to slight overbetting given risk vs reward considerations. This can be achieved by just rounding down your bets.

If playing an aggressive Kelly scheme it is probably better to round down to account for human error.

If considering resizing Kelly betting then it's probably more important to guard against human error and overbetting your advantage.

 

[Kasi]

I probally have not played a million hands I only have been playing for 7 + years. In those 7 years I am on the plus side. Does this mean once I hit the dreaded 1,000,000 hands I will turn to the downside due to the law of proballity or will I countuine to rise to the upside ?

Hard to say lol.

How close are you to EV and ahead/behind in standard deviations after those 7 years? Even just EV? Maybe even for the game you've played most often?

Not that I even know how to do that on a "blended" basis since I assume you've played a whole lot of different games in a whole lot of different ways with a whole bunch of different spreads perhaps even to a whole bunch of different assumed bankrolls. Or how u plan to play the remaining hands before reaching a million hands lol.

Not trying to be smart with you here or anything - it's a good question but how does one know without knowing, to some lose degree anyway, where one should be?

But I'd say if you know you're anywhere close to total EV after 7 years of betting however you've been doing it, you'll likley win money forever doing what you've been doing.

If you have no real idea how close you are to EV after 7 years, I guess anything might happen going forward.

I was just trying to make an unrealistic but simplistic point that if anyone has actually played the same system for 1,000,000 hands, he's probably way way ahead and if he continues to do the same thing, it would likely take an extremely unlikely event because he'd be so many stan dev ahead. That's all.

You keep a diary?

 

[InPlay]

Hard to say lol.

How close are you to EV and ahead/behind in standard deviations after those 7 years? Even just EV? Maybe even for the game you've played most often?

Not that I even know how to do that on a "blended" basis since I assume you've played a whole lot of different games in a whole lot of different ways with a whole bunch of different spreads perhaps even to a whole bunch of different assumed bankrolls. Or how u plan to play the remaining hands before reaching a million hands lol.

Not trying to be smart with you here or anything - it's a good question but how does one know without knowing, to some lose degree anyway, where one should be?

But I'd say if you know you're anywhere close to total EV after 7 years of betting however you've been doing it, you'll likley win money forever doing what you've been doing.

If you have no real idea how close you are to EV after 7 years, I guess anything might happen going forward.

I was just trying to make an unrealistic but simplistic point that if anyone has actually played the same system for 1,000,000 hands, he's probably way way ahead and if he continues to do the same thing, it would likely take an extremely unlikely event because he'd be so many stan dev ahead. That's all.

You keep a diary?

For those 7 years I am $38,490.00 ahead. I used to keep a dairy of what casino I played at and how many hours plus the won and lost. It was in a file on my lap top but it crashed and I lost it. That's all I keep track of now is the won and lost. I guess I will keep on playing the game I have been playing it works. Thanks.