Random bets at TC=1

[bluewhale]

hey, now that our roll has grown so much we're actually thinking of doing some real cover. A technique I had heard of a while ago was to bet random amounts (sometimes even quite large, possibly upto TC = 3 bets) on a TC of 1. As you know you're playing approx break even BJ at 1, so in the long run you'd expect to break even. This does a lot of things... it makes you bet big a LOT of the time (tc 1 is much much more common than the higher counts) which will make you look like a high roller more than a counter. It allows you to bet random amnts so the pit/surveillance will have a very hard time trying to figure out what you're doing. Also comps will jump if you're being rated. Obviously the downside is the increased variance, so to compensate you'd have to lower your ramp. I figure with a 55k roll we're still making an hourly of well over 50/hr though.

Thoughts on this technique to lower heat? obviously we're still pulling all the usual tricks incl. ratholing and short sessions.

 

[Kasi]

Thoughts on this technique to lower heat?

I like it - you could even maybe do do a mini Martingadale around that count to look real stupid.

I'd also look into misplaying a bunch of hands, at least most of the time, that don't really cost much.

 

[davidpom]

It would lower heat, but also has the potential to lower your bankroll.

True, its close to even blackjack... but you could potentially on that basis lose as many hands as you win... lose 4 or 5 of those big bets in a row and you could find your bankroll declining. Of course, you could equally win 4 or 5 bets in a row.

This is always personal choice stuff. I typically don't bet much more than a single or double unit until the TC is about +3 or +4 (then I might be spreading 4-6 units or thereabouts on a hand). I know there are some in the forums here who will say that's crazy, and that I'm costing myself money. However, I find the lower risk at that level to make my play more enjoyable. I still win cash in most sessions, maybe less than I could have with higher risk, but that works fine for me.

Best of luck with whatever you decide / how you play.

 

[QFIT]

I typically don't bet much more than a single or double unit until the TC is about +3 or +4 (then I might be spreading 4-6 units or thereabouts on a hand). I know there are some in the forums here who will say that's crazy, and that I'm costing myself money.

Yes, that's crazy.

 

[vonQuux]

hey, now that our roll has grown so much we're actually thinking of doing some real cover. A technique I had heard of a while ago was to bet random amounts (sometimes even quite large, possibly upto TC = 3 bets) on a TC of 1. As you know you're playing approx break even BJ at 1, so in the long run you'd expect to break even. This does a lot of things... it makes you bet big a LOT of the time (tc 1 is much much more common than the higher counts) which will make you look like a high roller more than a counter. It allows you to bet random amnts so the pit/surveillance will have a very hard time trying to figure out what you're doing. Also comps will jump if you're being rated. Obviously the downside is the increased variance, so to compensate you'd have to lower your ramp. I figure with a 55k roll we're still making an hourly of well over 50/hr though.

Thoughts on this technique to lower heat? obviously we're still pulling all the usual tricks incl. ratholing and short sessions.

Hey blue, I promise I wasn't trying to jack your thread/idea. I've been thinking about this ever since I became aware of the concept of "heat," mulling over different strategies for obfuscating AP.

The extra weird thing is that I discovered your post about three seconds after I finished typing up mine. I was kinda pissed. =)

vQ

 

[Sonny]

I know there are some in the forums here who will say that's crazy, and that I'm costing myself money. However, I find the lower risk at that level to make my play more enjoyable.

If you used a stronger bet spread then you could use a smaller unit size. You could have a bigger advantage, earn more money per hour for the same amount of risk, approach the long run much sooner, get less heat because your bets are smaller and more volatile (like a gambler) and you wouldn’t have to carry around as much money for each trip/session.

-Sonny-

 

[davidpom]

If you used a stronger bet spread then you could use a smaller unit size. You could have a bigger advantage, earn more money per hour for the same amount of risk, approach the long run much sooner, get less heat because your bets are smaller and more volatile (like a gambler) and you wouldn’t have to carry around as much money for each trip/session.

-Sonny-

Thanks Sonny, that's useful advice.