RE: 6D, How many hands are best when the C is a monster?

[Stealth Bomber]

I would assume the answer is 'as many as is possible'. I've heard other AP's disagree. This is an area on 6D, which baffles me.

For instance: (any issues other than math are aside for the moment) Let's say the situation is 1 on 1 with the D and the player is about mid pack with a monster C. Let's assume the house allows the player to play up to 4 hands and we also assume the shoe will be able to produce 3 rounds before the cut card shows up. So that would give 4 total rounds of most likely + cards (good cards); 4 hands times 4 rounds is 16 hands total during a high C. Also during which, the D gets only 4 hands. Therefore, 20 hands including the D's will flop on the table.

Now, scenario #2: The player is able to play this same high C situation 1 on 1 with the D but this time the player gets only 1 hand per round until 16 total hands are played including the D's. That's 8 for the P and 8 for the D. Subsequently, the player now knows the cut card is about to come out so he/she plays 4 hands on the last round, the D of course gets 1. That's 21 hands including the D's that flop on the table during the high C portion of the shoe.

With scenario #1, player gets 16 hands during the high C. The D gets only 4 hands. (20 hands total)

With scenario #2, player gets 12 hands during the high C. The D gets 9 hands. (21 hands total)

Based on scenario #1, I can't see why there is any reason NOT to play as many hands as is allowed when the C is high (all other issues aside i.e. 'heat').

Am I correct to believe that scenario #1 provides the best EV or am I missing something?

Stealth

 

[learning to count]

A high count deserves to be played. I think that bet size according to the ror factor is important. If you are playing at a low ror with a big BR then you have the possibility of a good EV. The other factor I feel that has to be taken into consideration is penetration. If this is a half cut shoe, a high count near the cut card could be good depending on what you have seen before hand. You may only get one round and the biguns may still be behind the cut card. I have seen shoes with sky rocketing counts up to the cut card and it was 1.5 standard six deck LV cut. So I would look to penetration first then your bet size. You could ride it out with smaller max bets for study sake I guess.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I don't know, I think the number of players at the table is a factor. Let's say there are two or three other players. You are going to have to share those nice cards with them until the count goes away, so you are better off playing two hands to make sure you get more than your fair share of them. Now if you are alone you are going to get to play them all anyway, so there is less of an advantage. My inclination in that situation is to play one hand, because that gives you a slightly lower lag in the count between making your betting decision and actually getting your cards.

 

[Shaggy18vw]

Check out BJmath.com

do a search for "card eating" by a poster named steve on november 14 2003.

From this thread I have come to the conclusion that the answer to your question is to play heads up until the cut card is close, then play as many hands as your ROR will allow.

Don Schlesinger states:
"When you're alone, on a dollar-per-card-dealt basis, there is no extra advantage to betting more than one spot."

correct player states:
"It does not matter if you get the good cards or the dealer: One Ace or ten of the dealer as upcard is sufficient to make you loose maybe all of your spots. One good card can win all. The fight is not who gets more good cards...The precise effect is for example:
First you play 1 spot with 100$
Second you play 2 spots with 100$. You have 200$ at the table, but you need more cards, about 50%.
So in the first case you play 100$ per 2 cards, in the second you play 200$ per 3 cards, your EV is 1/3 more. If you rise to 3 spots with 100$ you play 300$ per 4 cards. The more spots you play the lower the effect of playing an additional spot.
So if you play head on at a table without any limit: always play only 1 spot.
With other players at the table it is different: For example 1 more player playing 1 spot. if you play 1 spot of 100$ you play 100$ per 3 cards. if you rise to 2 spots you play 200$ per 4 cards., your EV is 1/2 more.
Your EV will be always worse if you play with another player, but the only thing you can undertake is to play more spots."

You should go and read the entire thread.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

I'm convinced mathematically that an AP should play as many hands as possible when there are other players at the table. The only reason I'm not yet believing the same when 1 on 1 is because I keep hearing it's wrong. However, I am not yet able to understand why.

Isn't the D considered a player also, regarding the 'eating of cards'. Aren't we competing with the D also to get more numbers of good cards than he/she. In other words; If I play 4 hands during a high C, I'm getting 4 times as many of the good cards as the D. Take for instance my scenarios 1 & 2 in my first post:

With scenario #1, AP gets 16 hands during the high C. The D gets only 4 hands. (AP plays 4 on 1 with 16 hands total - D gets 4 hands total)

With scenario #2, AP gets 12 hands during the high C. The D gets 9 hands. (AP plays 1 on 1 for a total of 8 hands then switches to 4 on 1 for the last round for a total of 12 hands - D gets 9 hands total)

Why should an AP allow the D in a high C situation to get just as many hands as the AP? In addition, scenario #1 provides 4 times better odds for the player to get more BJ's which do pay 3 to 2. Doesn't it make sense to cut the D out of the loop as much as possible when the Aces and faces are about to flop?

I would assume also that if the AP played $100 per hand while 4 on 1, that the AP would otherwise be playing about $200 per hand if 1 on 1 for the same ratio of risk factor.

I have not yet taken the time to do any research on this subject at BJmath.com.

Stealth

 

[Shaggy18vw]

I completely agree. I have always had the "gut" feeling that it was better to play more hands in the monster counts to have a better chance of getting more good cards, until I read that post on bjmath. Maybe the Mayor can shed some light on this subject.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

All 7, Table Max

if your BR permits.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

Re: All 7, Table Max

I think I'm more inclined to go with Rob on this one. This should be just pure math derived from a sim. I think The Mayor will be able to shed some light for us on the issue when he returns from his trip on 12-24.

Any other math guru's out there?

Stealth

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: All 7, Table Max

You will get people telling you to bet one spot to extend the period the count is high until you know the cut is coming, then cover the table to get max pene, which is again true. Fact is you are posting what IF questions for the sake of conversation I guess, which is not a bad thing. A nice way to learn things.

What IF Saddam was really Santa Claus, and now the world will have no Christmas? What IF they murder him?

For one, there is a simple math answer if enough info is available about the situation. For the other? Naaaaaaaaaa.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

6D - high C - 1 hand vs. multi hands - 1 on 1

I just want to know for sure if it makes sense mathematically to play as many spots as is possible when the C is really high while 1 on 1. Or should we play only one spot and only spread to more hands when the cut card is sure to come out? WHY???

No one has yet convinced me in any definitive manner, one way or the other. Maybe I'll have to just accept that nobody is really sure of the answer. And that's okay.

Even if I read it in one of the top BJ books, that we should only play one hand until the cut card is ready to show, I still would not be 100% on it. + I still want to know why.

Thanks all:

Stealth

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: 6D - high C - 1 hand vs. multi hands - 1 on 1

More hands means your overall risk comes down, which means you can bet more per TC. For example, win one hand, lose the second one. L2. W2. 1L,1BJ. I believe the proper way to bet head 2 head TC+15 6D would be ONE HAND coming down to the cut card bets full tilt. When you see the cut card showing, spread to cover the table with max bets to get deeper pene and hope the dealer has a 6 showing with a face under it. On the other hand when the count is sucking, spread to min hands to get them out of the way so you can stackemup again on one spot when the count goes up up up, and it burned burned burned........

RobMc