REfining basic strategy like no books teach it

J

jee_pack

Well-Known Member
hey maybe the reason why no book teach it is because the improvements I'm wondering about don't work... But I'll trow the idea out there and see what you guys say.

so basic strategy tells you what is the best possible move for each possible 1 card that the dealer shows. but does it take into account the fact that in some situations you also have a better knowledge of what is the dealer's face down card. And by that I'm not talking about the TC. I'm talking about when the dealer's has an ACE. So he asks everyone if they want insurance, and then he peaks, if he does not have a blackjack, play goes on. But if he has a blackjack, he turns it over and the round is over. So if the play goes on after he peaks, you KNOW FOR A FACT that his other card is not a TEN VALUE card. So from this knowledge, are there any advanced strategy adjustments you can make to improve your EV? Perhaps a formula in which this knowledge of the dealer's second card not being a TEN after he peaks can be combined to the knowledge of the TC to make an optimal adjustment in strategy????

or maybe not....


second thing: I've read somewhere that the strategy can change if the TC is very high cuse at that point the KELLY formula breaks down because if you make normal double down and split moves, you could be taking too much risk if look at what fraction of your bankroll the final bet (after all the splits and DDs) represents... Any intput on this? At what TC should this start to be considered?


thanks in advance
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
jee_pack said:
so basic strategy tells you what is the best possible move for each possible 1 card that the dealer shows. but does it take into account the fact that in some situations you also have a better knowledge of what is the dealer's face down card. And by that I'm not talking about the TC. I'm talking about when the dealer's has an ACE. So he asks everyone if they want insurance, and then he peaks, if he does not have a blackjack, play goes on. But if he has a blackjack, he turns it over and the round is over. So if the play goes on after he peaks, you KNOW FOR A FACT that his other card is not a TEN VALUE card. So from this knowledge, are there any advanced strategy adjustments you can make to improve your EV? Perhaps a formula in which this knowledge of the dealer's second card not being a TEN after he peaks can be combined to the knowledge of the TC to make an optimal adjustment in strategy????

or maybe not....

thanks in advance
Click to expand...
Basic strategy does take into consideration that dealer's hole card isn't a ten. Most of the time EVs versus a ten or an ace are displayed conditioned on the knowledge that dealer doesn't have blackjack. You will arrive at the same strategy decisions though if you just consider a dealer blackjack as a player loss (or push if player also has blackjack.) The formula to convert to conditional EV (know dealer doesn't have BJ) from unconditional EV (dealer BJ is a loss) is:
Code: 
EV given no dealer BJ = (unconditional EV+prob(dealer BJ))/(1-prob(dealer BJ))
k_c
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
asiafever said:
That's what the peek basic strategy is all about.
Click to expand...
Yes, but what I'm saying is that you can arrive at the correct strategy by using either the conditional peek EV or the unconditional no peek EV. In the case of splits and doubles, player is given a "rebate" on the no peek EV since he is being "overcharged" when the dealer has BJ, so the correct strategy can still be determined using the unconditional EV as well as the conditional. In either case, dealer's hole card is taken into consideration, which was the original question.:eek::) :juggle:

In a no peek game, player gets no rebate.

k_c
 
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