I just wanted to plug for him and his book too because not only is he a knowledgeable fellow, he's also a very kind man who will go out of his way to help (much like many of my fellow posters here ;-) ). I posted a message on advantageplayer.com about a couple months ago asking about different forms of advantage plays involving blackjack and left my email. He responded in email and not only did he direct me to his book, he answered all the questions I had and then some I didn't even think about. Near the end of that dialogue, I asked him for a signed copy of "Ace Prediction" and without fail, he agreed. The man is in England and I'm sure it's a pretty penny to send the book from there. He could have just as easily said no. It's 6pm today and I just got my book--signed. I've made my coffee and I'm getting ready to lay in bed reading the book until I'm finished. To those who haven't received the book: I can say even without opening said book, the man knows what he's talking about! David, you're one class act and you have all my respect.
Regarding David McDowell and "BJ Ace Prediction"
- Thread starter Cyrano
- Start date
Sonny
Well-Known Member
I don't think it will be a huge threat
> after all the publicity of this book how long before the casinos change
> their shuffle to stop this from working?
I think this book was incredibly well written. It has enough basic knowledge to get the average player interested in the concepts, but it balances that with a very mathematical approach to analyzing the effects of shuffles and tracking. Although everyone will be able to gain some evaluable insight from this book, only the math-oriented folks will truly "get" how the concepts work in actual casino practice.
In short, I think that many people, including casino executives, will simply read through the book and "gloss over" much of the math. This will not give them enough information to actually implement a truly "track-proof" shuffle procedure. It will probably make finding a trackable shuffle harder, but not impossible.
Everyone thought that Ed Thorp had killed the game of Blackjack when he showed how anyone can add +1 and -1 and beat the casinos, but nobody thought that Peter Griffin had killed the game when he exposed the mathematical rules that govern it. In reality, Griffin probably did more monetary damage to the game then Thorp ever did.
Besides, how much money do you think that the casinos will win from "wannabe" ace-trackers who are spreading to multiple big bets when they are at a disadvantage? This book could very well help the game to flourish!
It could even open up a whole new world of camo for us counters!
Pit Boss #1: "I think this guy is a counter. Should I bar him?"
Pit Boss #2: "No, he's just an ace-tracker. Let him spread as high as he wants."
(Okay, that last part was a bit too much) =)
-Sonny-
P.S.- Of course, I could be completely wrong. I have a feeling that many of us will be going to Vegas soon to find out!
> after all the publicity of this book how long before the casinos change
> their shuffle to stop this from working?
I think this book was incredibly well written. It has enough basic knowledge to get the average player interested in the concepts, but it balances that with a very mathematical approach to analyzing the effects of shuffles and tracking. Although everyone will be able to gain some evaluable insight from this book, only the math-oriented folks will truly "get" how the concepts work in actual casino practice.
In short, I think that many people, including casino executives, will simply read through the book and "gloss over" much of the math. This will not give them enough information to actually implement a truly "track-proof" shuffle procedure. It will probably make finding a trackable shuffle harder, but not impossible.
Everyone thought that Ed Thorp had killed the game of Blackjack when he showed how anyone can add +1 and -1 and beat the casinos, but nobody thought that Peter Griffin had killed the game when he exposed the mathematical rules that govern it. In reality, Griffin probably did more monetary damage to the game then Thorp ever did.
Besides, how much money do you think that the casinos will win from "wannabe" ace-trackers who are spreading to multiple big bets when they are at a disadvantage? This book could very well help the game to flourish!
It could even open up a whole new world of camo for us counters!
Pit Boss #1: "I think this guy is a counter. Should I bar him?"
Pit Boss #2: "No, he's just an ace-tracker. Let him spread as high as he wants."
(Okay, that last part was a bit too much) =)
-Sonny-
P.S.- Of course, I could be completely wrong. I have a feeling that many of us will be going to Vegas soon to find out!
I agree
I can't imagine it will hurt the game too much. Firstly, it's not like casinos are ignorant of the concept. Snyder already gave more than the ambitious counter would ever need to get started segment and sequence tracking way back when he published his shuffle tracking theory (mid 90s?). Yet in a recent trip to a small gambling town, I was blown away by the quantity of trackable shuffles.
What will hurt most is:
1. It will put the concepts back in the spotlight for the casinos. For a couple years, some casino managers will probably institute more extensive riffle/strippings.
2. I haven't read the book, but David suggested to me that he's recommending single keys. It sounds like, overall, he has fleshed out the approach and made it easier. So, there will likely be an upsurge in wannabes and talented newcomers.
But I agree with Sonny here - the wannabes will be very lucrative for the casinos. A subpar counter is still usually profitless to a casino, but a subpar sequencer is money in the bank. Moreover, David was very frank about the possibilities - the trackable shuffles using his techniques were very uncommon.
Frankly, it might even help things. More time riffling and stripping might mean less time marrying segments (but maybe not). And hopefully, the time-and-motion guys will win in the end.
- Rob Vega
I can't imagine it will hurt the game too much. Firstly, it's not like casinos are ignorant of the concept. Snyder already gave more than the ambitious counter would ever need to get started segment and sequence tracking way back when he published his shuffle tracking theory (mid 90s?). Yet in a recent trip to a small gambling town, I was blown away by the quantity of trackable shuffles.
What will hurt most is:
1. It will put the concepts back in the spotlight for the casinos. For a couple years, some casino managers will probably institute more extensive riffle/strippings.
2. I haven't read the book, but David suggested to me that he's recommending single keys. It sounds like, overall, he has fleshed out the approach and made it easier. So, there will likely be an upsurge in wannabes and talented newcomers.
But I agree with Sonny here - the wannabes will be very lucrative for the casinos. A subpar counter is still usually profitless to a casino, but a subpar sequencer is money in the bank. Moreover, David was very frank about the possibilities - the trackable shuffles using his techniques were very uncommon.
Frankly, it might even help things. More time riffling and stripping might mean less time marrying segments (but maybe not). And hopefully, the time-and-motion guys will win in the end.
- Rob Vega