Response to a post about a hand

[The Mayor]

Someone posted a question here, but now I can't find it.

It went like this:

first round in double deck -- player has 4,4 dealer shows 3. Player hits, gets a 4. Dealer then draws:

3-3-3-2-2-A-A-A-2

For a RC of 6 (and a TC of +3).

The question was if it was a good idea to continue playing, given that only 5/8 of the aces remain.

YES!!!

This sim is for flat betting the remainder of the deck at $10 per hand...

===================================================

PROFESSIONAL BLACKJACK ANALYZER
<Version: PBA 4.3.7>

Results for file: C:\PBA437\FUN_1.txt
May 17, 2004

The following rules were specified in the rules menu:
R>---------------------------------------------------
user deck
Insurance offered
Dealer hits soft-17
With dealer blackjack, player...

Loses one bet max
On ties, player pushes, except...

Loses with 22-26
Resplit to make four hands
Resplit aces not allowed
OK to split unlike 10s, like J-Q
Check hole card under 10, A
Double any hard total
Soft doubling allowed
After splitting...
Double any hard total

Soft doubling allowed

Double two cards only

Shufffle used was: Random Swaps
Dealt to 52 cards remaining.
User deck consisted of the following:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T J Q K A
5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5

R>--------------------------------------------------

The following counting system was used:
C>--------------------------------------------------
System name: Basic Strategy
C>--------------------------------------------------

B>---------------------------------------------------
The following betting system was used:
Flat Bet

True count is running count per 1. deck(s)
B>---------------------------------------------------

The following simulation results were obtained:
S>---------------------------------------------------
Edge: 1.26
Standard error: 0.01
Sigma: 1.16
Desirability index (DI): 10.91

Number of hands simulated: 81,410,000
Number of hands aborted: 0
Average hands per shoe: 7.98
Number of extra players: 0
Simulated hand is at position: 0
Number of cards burned at start of shoe: 0
Number of cards to remove and count...

before player decision: 0

after player decision: 0

Average initial bet: $10.00
Profit per hand: $0.13
Standard deviation per hand: $11.58
Profit per 100 hands: $12.63
Standard deviation per 100 hands: $115.76

Win percentage of total hands: 43.95%
Loss percentage of total hands: 46.12%
Tie percentage of total hands: 9.93%

 

[The Mayor]

No wonder, the post is buried in the unemployment thread below

(Dead link: http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?read=8151)

--Mayor

 

[Abraham de Moivre]

The Moral of the Story

The HiLo true count is +3.
The HiLo count factors in the effect of the ace just fine.
The HiLo count has a betting correlation of about .97

You have a +3, play and bet it!

 

[Rob McGarvey]

HO2 Moral of the Story

first round in double deck -- player has 4,4 dealer shows 3. Player hits, gets a 4. Dealer then draws:

3-3-3-2-2-A-A-A-2

For a RC of 6 (and a TC of +3).

Hi Opt II
!!RC of 12 - TC of 6 - 2Aces poor, betting TC is +2 [6+(-2x2)]. If you are a nickel bettor, $10 is bang on.

The question was if it was a good idea to continue playing, given that only 5/8 of the aces remain.

YES!!!
agree

 

[Inskipp]

Re: HO2 Moral of the Story

That was me. Sorry for burying it. The question arose from one of the stories on that dealer web site. The dealer was crowing about beating the player with that amazing run of cards, and the player left, but I was thinking that was no counter, a counter would have stayed with all those little cards gone. Then I wondered whether all those aces gone made a difference.

Thank you.