Risk of "R.O.R."

[Tom007]

I'm playing with a bankroll of $2000 that I made mostly from bonus abuse on the internet. I'm done with online BJ and wish to take counting more serious. I play my home casino about once a week and plan to visit Vegas twice a year.
I use Hi/Lo with matrix #s to +-3, mostly wonging on 6 deck shoes with 75-80% pen. H17, DAS, resplit A, with a spread of $5-50. Is this bankroll sufficiant? If so, what would be my R.O.R? Thanks in advance for any help or advice you guys can give me.

 

[sagefr0g]

I'm playing with a bankroll of $2000 that I made mostly from bonus abuse on the internet. I'm done with online BJ and wish to take counting more serious. I play my home casino about once a week and plan to visit Vegas twice a year.
I use Hi/Lo with matrix #s to +-3, mostly wonging on 6 deck shoes with 75-80% pen. H17, DAS, resplit A, with a spread of $5-50. Is this bankroll sufficiant? If so, what would be my R.O.R? Thanks in advance for any help or advice you guys can give me.

your big bet is about 2.5% of your bankroll. thats a bit high. you want to keep your big bet about 1% of your bankroll. that would be $20 max bet. this would be sufficient for an extended trip bankroll.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[zengrifter]

I'm playing with a bankroll of $2000 that I made mostly from bonus abuse on the internet. I'm done with online BJ and wish to take counting more serious. I play my home casino about once a week and plan to visit Vegas twice a year.
I use Hi/Lo with matrix #s to +-3, mostly wonging on 6 deck shoes with 75-80% pen. H17, DAS, resplit A, with a spread of $5-50. Is this bankroll sufficiant? If so, what would be my R.O.R? Thanks in advance for any help or advice you guys can give me.

No sim - just a guess - but if your trip lasts 5-days and you play 6hrs/day - 30hrs in all - I'd say your likelyhood of being down 50 topBets is less than 25% which may be acceptable RoR for you/your trip.

Anybody care to do a sim for him? zg

 

[Cass]

I'm playing with a bankroll of $2000 that I made mostly from bonus abuse on the internet. I'm done with online BJ and wish to take counting more serious. I play my home casino about once a week and plan to visit Vegas twice a year.
I use Hi/Lo with matrix #s to +-3, mostly wonging on 6 deck shoes with 75-80% pen. H17, DAS, resplit A, with a spread of $5-50. Is this bankroll sufficiant? If so, what would be my R.O.R? Thanks in advance for any help or advice you guys can give me.

Your lifetime Ror is around 45% if you avoid all counts below -3tc. Your arent playing with much of a edge. Win per 100hands is $7. If you play for 30hours your ROR is 4%. Keep in mind your expected win rate is only about $7/hr. Hardly worth a trip to vegas.
-Cass

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm playing with a bankroll of $2000 that I made mostly from bonus abuse on the internet. I'm done with online BJ and wish to take counting more serious. I play my home casino about once a week and plan to visit Vegas twice a year.
I use Hi/Lo with matrix #s to +-3, mostly wonging on 6 deck shoes with 75-80% pen. H17, DAS, resplit A, with a spread of $5-50. Is this bankroll sufficiant? If so, what would be my R.O.R? Thanks in advance for any help or advice you guys can give me.

Leaving a shoe at -3 using High-Low is a little too late. Most High-Low players Wong out at -1. This will increase your win rate significantly, and your RoR slightly because you will be playing more good counts. Assuming you table-hop and can always walk into a good count after leaving a bad one, you can probably make around $15 per hundred hands with your game. You will also want to learn index numbers up to at least 4 or 5.

Your bankroll is sufficient for the local play you are suggesing providing nothing terrible will happen to you if you lose your $2K. Instead of Vegas, you might wish to visit Reno as an alternate, because there are a lot of very good games in that area for a red chip player. But you'll have to learn the art of playing single deck.

 

[avs21]

. Instead of Vegas, you might wish to visit Reno as an alternate, because there are a lot of very good games in that area for a red chip player. But you'll have to learn the art of playing single deck.

I second that! If you have a choice to go to Reno area instead of Las Vegas. The hotel prices will be cheaper you will have plenty of playable games at your BR level. I had around a $2000 BR, so far by playing in Northen Nevada I have been able to grow my bankroll without the worry of a high ROR.

 

[JAXBOY]

follow up ?...

what is considered a low ror? i'm thinking 12.5%.... is 25% still low? how about 33%? just curious.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

what is considered a low ror? i'm thinking 12.5%.... is 25% still low? how about 33%? just curious.

It depends. Investors, and those who have a bankroll that can never be replenished if it is lost might want to play to a RoR of under 1%. But the lower the RoR, the lower the win rate, so by playing to a RoR that is too low you risk squandering your time instead of your money. Time can never be replenished.

This is a decision you have to make yourself alone, because the hours you spend at the BJ table come out of your life alone and no other person can put a value on that.

 

[Sonny]

what is considered a low ror? i'm thinking 12.5%.... is 25% still low? how about 33%? just curious.

I always go for 5% or less (a 1 out of 20 chance). A 25% ROR gives you a 1 out of 4 chance of going broke. That's a bit too risky for me, but everyone has their own opinion. If you are able to reduce your bet spread then you can play with more risk if you are willing to "dip down" if (when) your bankroll becomes depleted. For example, full Kelly betting (never resizing your bets) gives you a 13.5% ROR. If you cut back to half of your bets if you lose half of your bankroll then your original ROR is really only around 5%. The more frequently you adjust your bets the lower your ROR will be. That is one of the biggest benefits of true Kelly betting.

-Sonny-

 

[Tom007]

Risk of

I'm playing with a bankroll of $2000 that I made mostly from bonus abuse on the internet. I'm done with online BJ and wish to take counting more serious. I play my home casino about once a week and plan to visit Vegas twice a year.
I use Hi/Lo with matrix #s to +-3, mostly wonging on 6 deck shoes with 75-80% pen. H17, DAS, resplit A, with a spread of $5-50. Is this bankroll sufficiant? If so, what would be my R.O.R? Thanks in advance for any help or advice you guys can give me.

With the above mentioned bankroll of 2000 what should my session bankroll be? Also could someone define a playing session? Is it every time I sit at a table and play no matter how long the session may be? What if I'm table hopping in the same casino would each short time at each table be a session requiring a session bankroll? How much should my trip bankroll be?

thanks in advance.

 

[Sonny]

With the above mentioned bankroll of 2000 what should my session bankroll be?

I would buy in for $60. If you lose it then you can buy in for $100 more as needed.

Also could someone define a playing session?

I define it as the amount of time I spend playing in a casino. Probably other people have a different definition.

What if I'm table hopping in the same casino would each short time at each table be a session requiring a session bankroll?

Naw, just think of it as one session.

How much should my trip bankroll be?

How long is your trip? For a single day $600-$1,000 would be enough. For anything longer than that you should bring it all if you can. At the very least bring $1k.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

With the above mentioned bankroll of 2000 what should my session bankroll be? Also could someone define a playing session? Is it every time I sit at a table and play no matter how long the session may be? What if I'm table hopping in the same casino would each short time at each table be a session requiring a session bankroll? How much should my trip bankroll be?

thanks in advance.

as far as your trip bankroll here is what Wong suggests in Professional Blackjack:

for a short trip (a day or two) he suggests a trip bankroll equal to fifty times what ever your big bet is going to be.

for an extended trip he suggest a extended trip bankroll of one hundred times what ever your big bet is going to be.

so how do you determine what your big bet is going to be? i think you should determine that by your total bankroll and what risk of ruin (ROR) you are willing to live with.

best regards,
mr fr0g