Risk of ruin question

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Thunder

Well-Known Member
Say you were flipping a coin that landed on heads 80% of the time and you wanted to bet 20% of your bankroll each time on heads. If you started out with a bankroll of $2000 what would be your risk of ruin over 50 flips assuming you would be ruined if you went under $1000? If you could give the formula too, that would be very helpful as well.
 
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T

Thunder

Well-Known Member
I don't think the standard deviation would be the same though. Also that is based on BJ where you obviously win a far less # of times. In this scenario the goal would be 50 flips of the coin, not necessarily doubling your bankroll. In theory you could perhaps, quintuple your bankroll if not more.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Thunder said:
Say you were flipping a coin that landed on heads 80% of the time and you wanted to bet 20% of your bankroll each time on heads. If you started out with a bankroll of $2000 what would be your risk of ruin over 50 flips assuming you would be ruined if you went under $1000? If you could give the formula too, that would be very helpful as well.
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Well, risk of ruin questions generally assume you go bankrupt. They don't assume you are bankrupt after losing half a roll.

When you say bet 20% or roll each time on heads, do you mean bet $400 the first time but, if you lose and roll is now $1600 that you would bet $320 or $400 again on the second flip?

I guess it's a game with a player adv of 60%?

Not that I really have a clue to your question anyway lol.

But, I don't know, pretty small it seems to me lol.

Stick an Ace thru 5 in a hat, draw a card out, if it's an Ace thru 4 pay yourself $400. Replace card and repeat 50 times.

Repeat above 100 times. How many times did you experience your definition of "ruin"?

If I remember right, the calculator Sonny used was for no time constraint? Maybe not. I guess I'd better check lol.

I have no idea what numbers he plugged in. Is a stan dev of 0.8 way off?
 
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