Risk Of Ruin - Totalled!

[mich hucknall]

Just had the shoe to die for...... TC of 10+ with 3 decks in... remaining high (above TC 6 to the end, pen 90%). Was playing lucky ladies...... here's the killer.....

Won almost all (80%) of the early hands when the bet and the count was low. Then it went stellar... betting $25 per hand on lucky ladies after TC7.

Here's the thing - won LL 4-1 twice. 9-1 3 times.... but got caned on the BJ play. Bought in for 2k ...... went up to 3k even when the count was bad... then with this shoe that went up to TC 10 - ended up losing 1.5k - even with these LL wins.

Gutted. Will need a stronger stomach than this. Guess that's all part of the experience and training

EV? Still not for the faint hearted.

 

[zengrifter]

Just had the shoe to die for...... TC of 10+ with 3 decks in... remaining high (above TC 6 to the end, pen 90%). Was playing lucky ladies...... here's the killer.....

Won almost all (80%) of the early hands when the bet and the count was low. Then it went stellar... betting $25 per hand on lucky ladies after TC7.

Here's the thing - won LL 4-1 twice. 9-1 3 times.... but got caned on the BJ play. Bought in for 2k ...... went up to 3k even when the count was bad... then with this shoe that went up to TC 10 - ended up losing 1.5k - even with these LL wins.

Gutted. Will need a stronger stomach than this. Guess that's all part of the experience and training

EV? Still not for the faint hearted.

What size was your BR before that shoe? zg

 

[EasyRhino]

And how much were you betting per hand?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Aaaah Memories!

I wish that was the most I ever lost on one shoe:whip:

Don't overbet your bankroll and the losses won't be catastrophic:whip:

 

[kewljason]

support

well mich, let me offer my support. I know sometimes I would like to post after a frustrating and negative session or period, but don't because I dont need responders questioning and analizing my play. Sometimes we are just looking for a bit of support among our advantageplay brothers. God knows we dont always get it at home will significant others, friends and family.

We all know about and expect the sometimes negative fluctuation, but when it jumps up and actually bites you in the ass, it can still be discouraging and frustrating. Hang in there. In a few weeks or months when things are looking more positive, you'll look back and realize it was just part of the great rollarcoaster ride involved. good luck

 

[Sonny]

Yeah, it’s definitely not for the faint of heart. There’s an old saying amongst gamblers: “I played for 5 hours today and I broke even – and boy did I need it!” Sometimes the bad times are so bad that even a push feels lucky. As card counters we’re supposed to be ready for these times but they still seem to catch us by surprise.

“I expected times like this – but I never thought they’d be so bad, so long, and so frequent.”

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=10437

You’ve just got to walk it off and play through the pain. It will make you stronger when the next swing comes.

-Sonny-

 

[la_dee_daa]

yes you need the stomach last time i played i lost 140 units. think i lost almost every hand above a count of +4 expect 1 hummmm

 

[moo321]

And then the positive swings jump up and bite you in the ass as well. You look down and realize you're up 100 units, and didn't even notice it.

 

[InPlay]

Just had the shoe to die for...... TC of 10+ with 3 decks in... remaining high (above TC 6 to the end, pen 90%). Was playing lucky ladies...... here's the killer.....

Won almost all (80%) of the early hands when the bet and the count was low. Then it went stellar... betting $25 per hand on lucky ladies after TC7.

Here's the thing - won LL 4-1 twice. 9-1 3 times.... but got caned on the BJ play. Bought in for 2k ...... went up to 3k even when the count was bad... then with this shoe that went up to TC 10 - ended up losing 1.5k - even with these LL wins.

Gutted. Will need a stronger stomach than this. Guess that's all part of the experience and training

EV? Still not for the faint hearted.

You have got to have the BR to outlast them is the key. I had 5 years of straight winning years followed by 2 bad years. This year so far has outstanding.

 

[rukus]

You’ve just got to walk it off and play through the pain. It will make you stronger when the next swing comes.

Amen to this. I just got back from my longest trip yet and experienced swings I've never seen before (+/- 15% of total not trip BR
, something like 150 unit losses). Twice in each direction. The big negative swings came hard and fast in 2 different 1 hour sessions.

The first time it happened I was shocked I could lose so many hands at such high true counts (try +9 or +10 or hell +15 instead of +4) in a row, as I was used to winning fairly consistently at counts of just +4 or +5. But I took a break, analyzed my play, realized I was playing mistake free and it was just ugly variance. With a properly sized trip BR I went back to the tables, played exactly the same way, and was surprised as someone stated above, that all of a sudden I was back in positive territory.

And the next time the swings happened on the trip, as sonny mentioned, I was well aware of the possible swings and just took it in stride (of course not without cringing a bit on the inside).

Two very important lessons for you can be summarized from mine and other's posts:

1. Make sure your bets are sized appropriately for your bankroll and you can outlast the negative swings.
2. (And more important) do not get gunshy after a bigg loss. Keep putting the proper/optimal amount of money out at the proper times and you will come out ahead. Fail to do this and you should just pack it in now instead of wasting more money on this endevour. Analyze your play after a big loss - not only will it help you uncover any weaknesses but it will help calm you down if you did everything properly as you will realize you did everything right but variance was out of your control. It was not to be for you for that deck or for that shoe. But there is another deck/shoe with your name on it, ripe for the picking if you "have the guts" to keep firing away.

 

[zengrifter]

Amen to this. I just got back from my longest trip yet and experienced swings I've never seen before (+/- 15% of total not trip BR
, something like 150 unit losses). Twice in each direction. The big negative swings came hard and fast in 2 different 1 hour sessions.

15% (with proper bet-sizing) ain't nothing.

I think its been calculated that the violent downswings drop harder/faster
than the upswings - maybe 2.5x the relative magnitude - someone might verify. zg

 

[rukus]

15% (with proper bet-sizing) ain't nothing.

I think its been calculated that the violent downswings drop harder/faster
than the upswings - maybe 2.5x the relative magnitude - someone might verify. zg

Ha, if that aint nothing then I don't want to see the real thing!! 15% total bankroll gone in less than 60 minutes. Ouch! At least not in a single one hour session! It was more than 3 std devs worth to the left of what I expect from a 1 hour session.

Anyway, I can't verify the relative swiftness of downswings vs upswings but in the ones I've experienced that seems about right as a matter of my experience. Probably 2-3x in my experience. Can someone confirm, as ZG requested, whether this is a mathematical phenominon? Would be interesting indeed.

 

[Kasi]

Ha, if that aint nothing then I don't want to see the real thing!! 15% total bankroll gone in less than 60 minutes. Ouch! At least not in a single one hour session! It was more than 3 std devs worth to the left of what I expect from a 1 hour session.

Anyway, I can't verify the relative swiftness of downswings vs upswings but in the ones I've experienced that seems about right as a matter of my experience. Probably 2-3x in my experience. Can someone confirm, as ZG requested, whether this is a mathematical phenominon? Would be interesting indeed.

Well, first of all, since you said 150 units was 15% of total roll, I guess 1 stan dev is 50 units an hour or so. The fact it's 15% of total roll is only because total roll is apparently 1000 units or so. Is 50 units an hour that unusual as a stan dev? Guess it depends on whatever you're playing lol.

Having 4 such rarish events happen in such a short time does make one wonder what the heck is going on lol. Thank heaven you had some + ones too or I'd wonder about the game lol.

Not sure I understand the "relative swiftness" question since 1 stan dev in units or dollars is what it is?

Guess you may have been sweating your trip roll :grin:

 

[sagefr0g]

......
Having 4 such rarish events happen in such a short time does make one wonder what the heck is going on lol. Thank heaven you had some + ones too or I'd wonder about the game lol.

....

the way he's talkin "I was shocked I could lose so many hands at such high true counts (try +9 or +10 or hell +15 " sounds like he had the rare event of having a super high tc. i'm gonna guess it held on that way over a 'lot' of hands. if that guess is right he was firing away with all the ammo he had lol.
that can sink your ship real quick if those shots don't pan out.
course Ruckus did the right thing even if it didn't work out. :sad:

 

[rukus]

the way he's talkin "I was shocked I could lose so many hands at such high true counts (try +9 or +10 or hell +15 " sounds like he had the rare event of having a super high tc. i'm gonna guess it held on that way over a 'lot' of hands. if that guess is right he was firing away with all the ammo he had lol.
that can sink your ship real quick if those shots don't pan out.
course Ruckus did the right thing even if it didn't work out. :sad:

to answer questions asked of me, pre-trip i estimated 1 hourly std dev to be a little less than 50 units, around 40 actually. however i should stress that that was assuming 100 hands an hour and in fact i was probably getting more than that since i was playing DDers heads up, so 50 units probably is right around where 1 hourly std dev would be, if not higher even. the fact that these were DD games also help explain the more than several occasions where i saw many TCs above +8 (zen count). of course we never remember the times we win as well as we sweat the times we lose .

and no i was not sweating my trip bankroll (other than mentally adjusting to magnitude and quickness of the losses which wore off after some thought), as i and others have posted that for any serious trip (longer than 1-2 days), i will take upwards of 50% of my bank and have it available for play. some others suggest even more than that. for short term 1-2 day trips close to home i size my trip BRs for something like 10-15% tapout risk since if i tapout i am close to home and it is not a big deal to go home and reload. for a long trip away from home i will size trip BR to something like a 3-5% tapout risk, which means im taking something like half my total bank with me. others will reduce it even further by taking more bank. i do this so, like fr0gger says, i can still fire away properly without worrying about tapping out even after a "big" loss.

also, i dont believe in setting stop-losses or "mini" session bankrolls. my stopping points in order are 1. heat 2. time 3. big enough win to rouse suspicion (too bad this one almost never happens )

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Like To Swing!

15% (with proper bet-sizing) ain't nothing.

I think its been calculated that the violent downswings drop harder/faster
than the upswings - maybe 2.5x the relative magnitude - someone might verify. zg

Don't we have a random walk with an upward drift? The hourly SD, weekly or monthly is what it is. The EV always pulls our swings up and not down.

It is probably human nature to remember the bad times.

Also if you resize your bets frequently you have to win more bets to overcome losses which can mess with your psyche.

 

[ricopuno]

1. Make sure your bets are sized appropriately for your bankroll and you can outlast the negative swings.
2. (And more important) do not get gunshy after a bigg loss. Keep putting the proper/optimal amount of money out at the proper times and you will come out ahead. Fail to do this and you should just pack it in now instead of wasting more money on this endevour. Analyze your play after a big loss - not only will it help you uncover any weaknesses but it will help calm you down if you did everything properly as you will realize you did everything right but variance was out of your control. It was not to be for you for that deck or for that shoe. But there is another deck/shoe with your name on it, ripe for the picking if you "have the guts" to keep firing away.

I agree with you, that is why after loosing $80 :laugh: I'm back on the practice table again.

 

[zengrifter]

I think this was Hucknall's last post. We were about to nail him for overbetting. zg

 

[mich hucknall]

Haha, NO ZG - I just don't get on here as often as I'd like.

Bet Spread in this instance was ..... $10-$300... Reason..... Up to this shoe I was betting small Bet Spread of 1-10 using $10-$100. Then the count went crazy and I thought what the hell (lesson learnt!)..... my original post was more about the disbelief of having an amazingly high positive count and still losing so many hands. I am still very new to the world of counting in the real sense (ie - not practicing at home or working as a dealer). I realize that what I did was reckless and not at all within any kind of sensible strategy limits.. at this stage I'm simply going out to play and count.. and hopefully win a bit here and there. I very much see the next year as an apprenticeship before getting a serious bankroll together and starting for real.

Bank Roll - this is where you'll nail me..... I am still practicing and only testing my skills and the whole thing out. I have 10k total for now - simply to go out and get some practice and get my act together... I don't view this as my bankroll but rather as a practice fund. Up to now I've been doing well... becoming fluent in counting and excellent at cover... and winning - up about $1200 so far even with this demon session taken into account.

OK - NOW you can nail me.:laugh:

 

[zengrifter]

OK - NOW you can nail me.:laugh:

You were lucky you only lost 15%. zg