RoR Questions???

P

phantom007

Well-Known Member
I am trying to further my studies and understanding of the game of BJ, I still have trouble grasping RoR (Risk of Ruin).

I had always considered RoR as "REVERSE PLOPPINESS", i.e., those playing a Neg. Expectation game...players do get ahead (for a short-to-medium term), despite the best intent of mathematics. In other words, one could play to advantage, yet still lose, during the short-medium term.

Case in point, I know members of a Professional Slot Team...they make fun of my "sweating the cards", when "ALL One has to do is watch a bank of machines for 8-10 hours, then PLAY the ones that have not hit during said time-frame". Certainly, this "Team" is ahead over the last 2 years by about $40K...approx. 10X by net positivity (of course, ALL of my ploppy remissions into the land of Craps and Progressive BJ is included in MY total).

As I have stated previously, I do not PERSONALLY like "front-Wonging", i.e. watching shoe after shoe, entering play only at Positive situations. But mathematical facts aside, even IF said slot team was onto something, which I know they are not....I AIN'T GOING TO WONG A BANK OF SLOTS FOR 8-10 HOURS!

Question #1: Is my grasp of the basic principle of RoR correct?

Question #2: How does Spread affect RoR...for example only, LV Strip DD, 4:1

vs. 8:1?

Question #3: Does RoR presume ALL winnings are placed back into the Bankroll?

Question #4: The Mayor recently posted a statement: "Playing full Kelly gives

one a 13% RoR". Please explain...I thought the whole idea behind

Kelly was to decrease RoR?

Thanks to ALL in advance for answer(s) and/or advice. Will simply request all to keep the answers SIMPLE...ah' did good in algebra and trig, but Calculus sent me to grad school...calculus grades so BAD, my GPA needed grad school to amend!

phantom007.
 
L

learning to count

Well-Known Member
My meager math ignorant understanding of ROR is that your bet size has dependant on your bank roll size. If you play at a high ror you have a certain percent RISK of losing your bank roll. For example if I had a $5k bank roll with a 1-30 spread at a nickle, six deck game, LV Strip rules my ror is close to 13%-15%. This is too high for a 5K BR. A spread of 1-5 would give me a 3-5 % ROR. Which is a lower percent rate of ruin. With the proper BAnk Roll you could play at a low ROR making bets in the black chip range. The bank roll would have to be large over $250 K. This is play all. A good ROR to play at is 2%. BJRM is the software to have. It takes the guessing out of bet size, ror, proper bank roll etc etc.. My estimates are off the top of my head. I in my humble knowledge/oppinion hope that my understanding is correct! Its back to the books for me! LTC
 
A

Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
Question #1: Is my grasp of the basic principle of RoR correct?
I don't know. RoR is the % chance you have of going broke before you double your money. Want about a 50% RoR? Bet your entire bankroll on 1 hand. You either double or go broke. If that is your basic grasp, then you got it.

Question #2: How does Spread affect RoR...for example only, LV Strip DD, 4:1
vs. 8:1?

Bigger spread makes for larger variance, which means a bigger chance of going broke, but it also means a bigger chance of making more money. Computer programs like BJRM figure out which is better and where the balance point is. Smaller spread, less variance but you are more likely to get ground down by the house edge.

Question #3: Does RoR presume ALL winnings are placed back into the Bankroll?
Yes. If you are drawing out of your winnings, then you aren't really playing with as large a bankroll as you think.

Question #4: The Mayor recently posted a statement: "Playing full Kelly gives
one a 13% RoR". Please explain...I thought the whole idea behind Kelly was to decrease RoR?
Nope. Kelly is maximizing your profits without going broke. Most people are willing to leave a little profit on the table, to lessen the chance of going broke, and therefore play a fraction of Kelly (1/2 kelly, 1/4 kelly, etc.)
Classic Kelly assumes resizing your bet size to your bankroll at each bet. Therefore, you would be rasing/lowering your bet with each $1 won or lost. You would also be making bets like $23.475 or $11.298. Since in real life, their is an upper and lower limit to what you can bet, bets usually have to be in at least $5 increments, and you won't resize your bet levels until you either go completely broke or double, you have 13% ROR instead of 0% betting full Kelly.
 
F

FLA Player

Member
A good book to read is "Blackjack Attack" 2nd ed. regarding ROR and to get BJRM as mentioned by LTC

A good generalization (not ROR, but a good guideline) is to have a BR of 100 max bets (if your max bet is $25 you'd have $2500) and to only play in positive counts-

FLA Player
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top