RUIN Formula?

N

NightStalker

Well-Known Member
There is something called 'Simple Risk Of Ruin' in CVdata Risk Calculator. There is a formulae mentioned in BJ attack as:

RUIN = (CnD(w/d))^(bank/d)

What is this RUIN?

Is it the probability that player will lose half bank before doubling?
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
NightStalker said:
There is something called 'Simple Risk Of Ruin' in CVdata Risk Calculator. There is a formulae mentioned in BJ attack as:

RUIN = (CnD(w/d))^(bank/d)

What is this RUIN?

Is it the probability that player will lose half bank before doubling?
Click to expand...
the 'Simple Risk Of Ruin' for cvcx is that given on page 112 of Blackjack Attack 3rd ed.. it's the risk that you will lose your entire bankroll if you just keep playing and playing with out stopping after reaching some goal or reaching some number of hands played.

Ruin = [(1-w/sd)/(1+w/sd)]^(bank/sd)
w = hourly winrate
sd = hourly standard deviation
bank = bankroll in units

errhh i dunno (haven't seen) the formula you posted above. what page was that on?
edit: i believe the risk of halving your bank would be the square root of the simple ruin.
 
Last edited:
N

NightStalker

Well-Known Member
I am talking about the same formula

sagefr0g said:
the 'Simple Risk Of Ruin' for cvcx is that given on page 112 of Blackjack Attack 3rd ed.. it's the risk that you will lose your entire bankroll if you just keep playing and playing with out stopping after reaching some goal or reaching some number of hands played.

Ruin = [(1-w/sd)/(1+w/sd)]^(bank/sd)
w = hourly winrate
sd = hourly standard deviation
bank = bankroll in units

errhh i dunno (haven't seen) the formula you posted above. what page was that on?
edit: i believe the risk of halving your bank would be the square root of the simple ruin.
Click to expand...
which you have posted here.. CnD(x) = (1-x)/(1+x) is called compo&dividendo function

This is the formulae given on Pg112 of BJA-3
I've read somewhere (bjmath) that it is about doubling Vs half.
In short: You are saying that it is the probability of going broke.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
NightStalker said:
......
This is the formulae given on Pg112 of BJA-3
I've read somewhere (bjmath) that it is about doubling Vs half.
In short: You are saying that it is the probability of going broke.
Click to expand...
i've read that some where as well, errh, i dunno.

but it seems risk of ruin in terms of either doubling the bank vs halving the bank, would be another kind of ROR, other than simple ROR. reason i say that is because in either case doubling the bank or halving it is introducing a sort of a goal into the equation, which would mean some sort of time limitation or a limitation on number of hands played, sorta thing.
i don't think simple ROR is time limited or hand limited, it's more for playing on and on.
and simple ROR is the formula given on Pg112 of BJA-3 according to cvcx help.
other types of ROR are as follows:
Risk given no goal but a time constraint
Risk given a goal and time constraint
Risk given a goal and no time constraint
but the type of risk on pg112 of BJA-s is Risk given no goal and no time constraint
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top