Semi-Voodoo System

[justme]

What I'm thinking of is why not to have the best of both worlds. Why so many people insist on playing progressions, design systems etc? Because it works for them short/mid-term. But eventually they will lose more than win. Each time they start they have better chance of winning than loosing. However, as it has been rightly noticed many times on this forum, when bad day comes they lose hell a lot more than their usual winning. Card counters, on the other hand, significantly increase their bets when count is favorable. As I understand (and I'm only starting to look into counting), card counting has two problems. First of all, card counters get barred. Secondly, even with odds on your side, blackjack is still pretty much a game of luck and card counters are no strangers to bad sessions. These bad sessions are usually (and correct me if I'm wrong) a result of loosing big bets when dealer is lucky. Now if all above-mentioned is true why not play the same short progression (let's say 2 steps) all the time without increasing your bets and leave when count is negative? The positive sides of a such approach as I see it:

1. You suppose to win in a long run. You have a very slim chance of having a really bad session cause most of the time count is on your side or at least neutral and you don't have to risk by making big bets or playing some crazy martingale progression.

2. If you stick to playing the same way all the time, it would be very hard for casino to figure out you count cards. Best they can say - you leave too soon sometimes


I didn't count cards before and obviously have a very little idea about it so if it doesn't make sense just point out the flaws in logic.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

So, don't spread at all?

 

[21gunsalute]

These bad sessions are usually (and correct me if I'm wrong) a result of loosing big bets when dealer is lucky. Now if all above-mentioned is true why not play the same short progression (let's say 2 steps) all the time without increasing your bets and leave when count is negative?

So you're saying the dealer isn't going to get lucky if you're playing a progression? How does this work? Do the card gods meet and say "this guy's playing a progression, not counting cards. Let's not let the dealer get lucky as long as he keeps playing a progression." So what happens when you have a card counter and a progressionist playing at the same table? The card gods have a clear dilemna now. Do they screw both players or decide to look favorably on each?

 

[justme]

So, don't spread at all?

Yeah

 

[justme]

So you're saying the dealer isn't going to get lucky if you're playing a progression? How does this work? Do the card gods meet and say "this guy's playing a progression, not counting cards. Let's not let the dealer get lucky as long as he keeps playing a progression." So what happens when you have a card counter and a progressionist playing at the same table? The card gods have a clear dilemna now. Do they screw both players or decide to look favorably on each?

He/She will. But if you playing mostly on positive counts in the long run you will get "lucky" more often

The point is why risk with spreading if you have an advantage? If you have infinite br and casino you are playing at tolerates card counters this is probably not a problem. Btw, are there card counters who flat-bet only? Cause it also makes sense. You sacrifice a little bit of advantage you have (not a lot though) but play it safe and still play positive expectation game...

 

[ohbehave]

For the typical, solo player flat-betting positive counts, even with wonging, is a weak game. What that means is that unless your bankroll is very large you will have a large ROR. The reason is because when flat-betting you will be overbetting low plus counts and/or underbetting high plus counts. A good sim will tell you all you need to know about optimal betting.

 

[justme]

For the typical, solo player flat-betting positive counts, even with wonging, is a weak game. What that means is that unless your bankroll is very large you will have a large ROR. The reason is because when flat-betting you will be overbetting low plus counts and/or underbetting high plus counts. A good sim will tell you all you need to know about optimal betting.

Interesting. Is there any statistics comparing risk from big bets vs. consistent small betting both on positive counts. From your words I conclude there is. Can you give some link or directions where to search.

Another question that is of interest to me is to compare house advantage on different counts. Is there any chart on that?

P.S. I probably shouldn't have started this topic in Voodoo section, sorry about that

 

[ohbehave]

Yes. There's free sim software at blackjackforumonline.com, or for the professional stuff get CVCX at qfit.com. CVCX will give you the advantage at each count, the free software does not. I don't have any affiliation with either site.

 

[farmdoggy]

Maybe try a huge spread of like 1-30 or more, where you play all and employ a 3 level martingale when the count's not in your favor. Thus, you are not always betting the min in the neg/neutral counts, but your average bet while martingling is actually your "min" bet of what is more realistically a 1-10 spread.

 

[Canceler]

Another question that is of interest to me is to compare house advantage on different counts. Is there any chart on that?

Here's one.

CVCX will give you the advantage at each count, the free software does not.

Of course it does.

 

[ohbehave]

Ok, my bad. Its been awhile since I used it and I thought it didn't.

 

[justme]

Yes. There's free sim software at blackjackforumonline.com, or for the professional stuff get CVCX at qfit.com. CVCX will give you the advantage at each count, the free software does not. I don't have any affiliation with either site.

Thank you! I'll try that.

 

[justme]

Maybe try a huge spread of like 1-30 or more, where you play all and employ a 3 level martingale when the count's not in your favor. Thus, you are not always betting the min in the neg/neutral counts, but your average bet while martingling is actually your "min" bet of what is more realistically a 1-10 spread.

Pit bosses will notice that sooner or later I'm afraid

 

[justme]

Here's one.

Thank you!

 

[21gunsalute]

He/She will. But if you playing mostly on positive counts in the long run you will get "lucky" more often

The point is why risk with spreading if you have an advantage? If you have infinite br and casino you are playing at tolerates card counters this is probably not a problem. Btw, are there card counters who flat-bet only? Cause it also makes sense. You sacrifice a little bit of advantage you have (not a lot though) but play it safe and still play positive expectation game...

Spreading is what gives you the advantage! You will be playing at a disadvantage if you don't spread because you are still going to lose more hands than you will win. Now for the real kick in the teeth: You won't win a higher percentage of hands during high counts than you do during low counts! So what do you think gives one an advantage in high counts?

 

[justme]

Spreading is what gives you the advantage! You will be playing at a disadvantage if you don't spread because you are still going to lose more hands than you will win.

I'm a little bit confused about that. I understand that spreading gives your an advantage but don't understand why flat-betting or even playing with progression will be a disadvantage. According to Canceler's chart, one starts playing with small advantage when TC is 1 and higher TC more advantage you have. So idea was to play on higher counts and leave immediately if shoe goes negative. Since I haven't played counting I do not know how often shoe fluctuates. If TC 2 or 3 (or -2 -3) happens every second show or so you can catch what superstitious gamblers like to call good or bad streak. But if it does not happen too often and one can spend the whole night playing at zero count most of the time then this strategy is tiresome at least.

Now for the real kick in the teeth: You won't win a higher percentage of hands during high counts than you do during low counts! So what do you think gives one an advantage in high counts?

I would assume doubling and splitting with adjustments to new conditions (like splitting 10s against 6)

 

[Friendo]

Now for the real kick in the teeth: You won't win a higher percentage of hands during high counts than you do during low counts! So what do you think gives one an advantage in high counts?

One of the challenges of casino comportment: listening to the ploppy say "Whoa - dude!" when doubling after splits or re-splitting. I have this weird impulse to turn and say:

"I'm not bold or reckless at all - I'm actually cowardly, because I have no choice but to fight for the advantage whenever I can get it, and this is that place!"

I had a weird night a few weeks ago: after each of four mediocre shoes which refused to dip to my wong-out count, I awoke from my minimum-bet slumber to find a substantially larger pile of chips in front of me. It's possible to have huge winning streaks at neutral counts.

 

[farmdoggy]

Pit bosses will notice that sooner or later I'm afraid

Nah... It's gold baby! I might actually try this sometime. I might even use a level 4 martingale so that on a rare occasion, I'm actually betting the same in a neg count as I would be for +2. With a level 4 martingale, doubling after a loss at a $5 minimum table, the average bet would still be somewhere around 10-$15 even though sometimes you're betting $40... Whereas the TC1 bet for me would be $20.

 

[justme]

Nah... It's gold baby! I might actually try this sometime. I might even use a level 4 martingale so that on a rare occasion, I'm actually betting the same in a neg count as I would be for +2. With a level 4 martingale, doubling after a loss at a $5 minimum table, the average bet would still be somewhere around 10-$15 even though sometimes you're betting $40... Whereas the TC1 bet for me would be $20.

Good Luck! Hope you are right

 

[farmdoggy]

Good Luck! Hope you are right

Of course I'm right... My system uses Card Counting to make money, and uses a martingale system as cover... The martingale system does NOT make money. You seem fixed on using your martingale system, and want to find a situation in which it will make money... It will make money if you only play positive counts, sure, but not as much as the theorhetical 1-10 spread I've presented.