shitty counts

[wvbjplayer]

Has anyone else encountered serious trouble finding a decent count? In over 60 hrs. of play, I don't think I've seen more than one count that got over +10, and it quickly thereafter plunged back to around 0 (and then gradually, as always, further to -5, -10, -15...). Ironically, on the one count that was over +10, I lost 3 hands in a row. (Most of the other players won, however.)

What is considered a great count in a 6D shoe? +12? +15?

I notice Ken Uston calls "+9" the "strike number" in a 6D shoe, but what would be a count so good you basically couldn't lose, i.e., such that your odds of winning a given hand approached, say, 65%, and your odds of winning more hands than not by the end of the shoe approached 80-90%?

Thanks,
wvbjplayer

 

[21forme]

Are you talking about RCs or TCs? What count are you using?

 

[Sonny]

...what would be a count so good you basically couldn't lose, i.e., such that your odds of winning a given hand approached, say, 65%, and your odds of winning more hands than not by the end of the shoe approached 80-90%?

I think it's somewhere around +17 where you are actually more likely to win the next hand, although only slightly. Over 99% of the time you are more likely to lose the next hand. I don't think you'll ever have a 65% chance of winning the next hand.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
I notice Ken Uston calls "+9" the "strike number" in a 6D shoe, but what would be a count so good you basically couldn't lose, i.e., such that your odds of winning a given hand approached, say, 65%, and your odds of winning more hands than not by the end of the shoe approached 80-90%?

Thanks,
wvbjplayer

No such count. The count has to be extremely high, to a very rare degree, to even have a 50% chance of winning a hand. You make your profit by getting more blackjacks and more successful results on DD and split hands at higher counts. Sorry, I know that's depressing, but that's the math.

 

[Sonny]

Hey AM

I only beat you by 1 minute this time. You're getting faster! :grin:

-Sonny-

 

[EasyRhino]

If Ken Uston wrote about +9, I would think that he would have been using a count which was scaled differently than hi-lo.

a hi-lo of +9 is well past the point where you should have been maxing things out (or, if you don't believe in "max bets", then you'd be betting maybe 4% of total bankroll).

 

[Sonny]

If Ken Uston wrote about +9, I would think that he would have been using a count which was scaled differently than hi-lo.

It was probably one of Uston's unbalanced systems. He used "strike numbers" instead of indices for changing basic strategy plays. He describes how it works in his training video but I haven't watched it in a while. I really should make a DVD copy before the videotape disintegrates.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

Has anyone else encountered serious trouble finding a decent count? In over 60 hrs. of play, ..........

yes it can be extremely frustrating.
sometimes to me when the count finally almost makes it to a positive true count only to have the high cards come trickling out just enough to put the true down to zero or usually a negative TC it is as if your being punched in the stomach as each high card comes out.
then in the rare event (or so it seems to me) that you do get a decent positive true count you end up getting say an Ace on your double down of an eleven or you are playing two hands ending up with one stiff hand and a twenty against the dealer upcard of ten with your big bets sitting out there.
typical things that happen. what ever yep i've sure encountered those things.
on the the lighter side though it's like AM says it's not winning more normal hands that saves us when we finally get some decent true's but those blackjacks, doubledowns and sometimes splits with bigger bets out that saves us or even gets us out ahead. it's almost subtle at times how working the EV and playing proper basic strategy makes the day for us over time.

 

[eps6724]

The cards favoring the player are the high cards, so the count dropping is where the advantage will come in, 'cause they're coming out!. Hope for the high count, then pray for it to drop and ride the wave!

I think Schlessinger talks about this in BJA...Or was it Rezney in BJBB II? OR it was in a post a few months back by Sonny...

Either way, the count rising is the WARNING that things SHOULD get good, as the high cards will begin to come out. (Cut card not withstanding). So, we're actually betting that the count will drop.

NOW, if someone could figure out a way to know WHO is going to get the high cards...:devil:

 

[Kasi]

What is considered a great count in a 6D shoe? +12? +15?

There are no great counts. Or poor counts. Every game has a different frequency of True Counts and an advantage associated with that count. It is what it is and that's all one has to work with. This cannot be changed because you cannot change the laws of probability. All one can do is decide how much to bet, and when, given these immutable facts.

So TC's of +10 occur less frequently, maybe alot less frequently, in 8 decks than 6 decks even with same rules and same percentage pen and will have a different advantage associated with that same TC when it does occur. The frequency will vary, along with the innate advantage associated with that same TC, even in the same game when the pen changes.

Not to mention different counting systems will give rise to different frequencies and advantages associated with them.

And the advantage associated with a count always depends on underlying assumptions like whether you use indices or not, and whether you jump bets or not.

Of course all this generally assumes you count perfectly and never make a mistake lol.

Understanding this basic truth, and deciding what to do with it, is pretty much the whole ball of wax if you ask me.

Does this make any sense to you?

 

[sagefr0g]

There are no great counts. Or poor counts. .............................................Not to mention different counting systems will give rise to different frequencies and advantages associated with them.

yes it is interesting that some high count has a high advantage associated with it but then how often are you going to get that count. probably not so often. and you get more lower positive counts but then a lower advantage associated with them but then they can kind of add up. then for a count like the KO count where there is some count that is pretty much considered optimal for raising bets. at least at some point (forgot what it was but i think it's around +2 TC when compared to hi/lo) then it kind of drops off in advantage in i think the latter part of the shoe.

And the advantage associated with a count always depends on underlying assumptions like whether you use indices or not, and whether you jump bets or not.

Of course all this generally assumes you count perfectly and never make a mistake lol.

Understanding this basic truth, and deciding what to do with it, is pretty much the whole ball of wax if you ask me.

Does this make any sense to you?

well this is a subject i love and usually wont get far as it for some reason it brings out strong disagreement and seems like discord. then the thread gets locked lol. but anyway like Eliot Jacobson says in Blackjack Zone how mistakes aren't always such a crucial factor perhaps. like maybe one of the worst mistakes might be reversing the count occasionaly but even as bad as it is doesn't neccessarily sink the ship for you ect.
but i'm not negating your point about how to get what you might expect is going to mean you have to toe the line according to your simm parameters or how you set up your game plan.
but like you say there are going to be a lot of factors that go into making a best count even for a given game such as What is considered a great count in a 6D shoe? +12? +15? ..... got to consider your bankroll, desired ROR, bet spread, number of players at the table, penetration,wonging or not and when, what count your using and maybe if it's a full moon lol.

 

[Kasi]

well this is a subject i love and usually wont get far as it for some reason it brings out strong disagreement and seems like discord.

Try hitting a 3-card 17 vs a dealer Ace sometime in an AC Span21 game. You haven't seen strong disagreement until you do that when someone with a big bet thinks you screwed up their hand lol.

Anyway, I think you get that changing one thing, changes everything. Maybe a little. Maybe alot.

But, underlying it all, are the TC's that occur with a definite frequency and an advantage attached to it, given initial assumptions.

So there are no "best counts" to me, like you seem to say?, maybe optimal betting schemes, or betting schemes that yield a +EV with an associated ROR, kind of thing.

So, sure, you can measure the effect of reversing a count, or whatever, but the only reason it's even measurable is that, in that particular game, with that particular set of rules, with that particular penetration, with that counting system, counts occur with a certain frequency and an advantage attached to it.

Probably beating a dead horse here, nothing nobody doesn't already know, lol but, by all means, if you feel like bs'ing about it, I won't worry about discord if you don't lol. Hey, who's gonna argue with the Wise Frog lol? Certainly not me lol.

 

[Dopple]

Ustons APC count (not the simple one) has AC call-in #s of 33,30,27,24,21,18,15 and 12 for 5.5 to 2 decks remaining. I use these as a rough guide to when it will be good to raise or get in if wonging.

He says (MD blackjack pg. 128), you have a .5 adv w/ a TC of +3 with 4 decks remaining. That would be running count of 24 w/ normal aces.

I side count aces per Uston and that often sways my decisions.

Personally I find Kens book alot more workable than anything else I have read i.e. Griffin, Don S., or Revere.

I suggest Million Dollar Blackjack highly for a good comprehension of the game.

 

[sagefr0g]

Try hitting a 3-card 17 vs a dealer Ace sometime in an AC Span21 game. You haven't seen strong disagreement until you do that when someone with a big bet thinks you screwed up their hand lol.
.

:devil: me thinks you like that more than getting the money lol.

Anyway, I think you get that changing one thing, changes everything. Maybe a little. Maybe alot.

But, underlying it all, are the TC's that occur with a definite frequency and an advantage attached to it, given initial assumptions.

So there are no "best counts" to me, like you seem to say?, maybe optimal betting schemes, or betting schemes that yield a +EV with an associated ROR, kind of thing.
.

yeah i guess so and i never really thought about that until i saw your post for i think it was wvbjplayer. but well for me and the games i play which are mostly six or eight deck DAS NRA LSR or maybe no LSR with poor penetration(circa 70%) hopefully low min of $5 or $10 and with tables that are usually crowded as hell well anyway i for myself like True Counts of Two thru Four.

So, sure, you can measure the effect of reversing a count, or whatever, but the only reason it's even measurable is that, in that particular game, with that particular set of rules, with that particular penetration, with that counting system, counts occur with a certain frequency and an advantage attached to it.

Probably beating a dead horse here, nothing nobody doesn't already know, lol but, by all means, if you feel like bs'ing about it, I won't worry about discord if you don't lol. Hey, who's gonna argue with the Wise Frog lol? Certainly not me lol.

the discord is kind of funny to me so i just laugh it off. but the thread might get wacked for it if it happens lol.
but it's interesting to me because right now i'm interested in the fuzzy count approach and if your going to FC then it gives you a warm fuzzy feeling if you are going to be gambling with that and have an understanding that blackjack can be a fairly forgiving game even if you do expect to lose almost every darn hand lol. that is if you can manage to get bigger bets out when your more likely to at least win more double downs than you will lose over time and get more blackjacks and maybe get lucky with some splits. oh yea and get over on some insurance bets at the right time.
so with this accuracy versus less accurate issue i can only come up with an analogy of why it interests me. imagine your sleeping and have a hand gun and a shot gun within reach. murderous burglers break in your room and run all about the room stopping every so often. well you could try and pick off a burgler or two with the hand gun when they are stationary but for the ones that were running amuck it might be a better option to just blast them with the shot gun. the hand gun would need greater accuracy but would be well suited for the stationary target. the shot gun while not so accurate or affective over long distances would be accurate and more effective in short distances even against the moving target. dumb analogy i guess as most are but it's hard to express this (what i believe) is a truth about the accuracy versus less accurate issue that one can consider with respect to blackjack.
and it's a time and efficiency issue as well i believe. from my experience counting cards orthodox for two years i've experienced so much of what can be viewed as wasted time and effort. granted it isn't really wasted time and effort as it is in the orthodox sense required time and effort but for me here is the kicker that being with less effort and maybe less time a few intelligent guess's placed against what is already a fuzzy accuracy might be nearly just as effective on what is maybe or maybe not a fuzzier cognition.
similar to where most people who don't know anything about card counting might say to you "how in the world can you count 312 cards that are all mixed up and with a deck or two cut off too boot?" but the thing is they don't realize that you are simplifing things by tagging the high value cards as minus one and the low value cards as plus one and ignoring the neutral cards.
nor do they realize that further maths are being employed in the background to further help improve our odds such as kelly betting, ROR understanding ect.
but i think similarly we as card counters fail to realize that even further simplification is plausible and not really so complicated, difficult or dangerous.
and where i believe a lot of would be counters are in situations where their options for playing conditions are so limited in that wonging, finding better games, less crowded conditions, better penetration ect. are for all practical purposes a pipe dream. given the cost of gas, room and board, air fare and what ever there are loads of practical considerations for the would be card counter to consider.
so you take a guy like me who is going to play a considerable amount of blackjack over time but no where near as much as an orthodox counter would have too and the practical considerations involved where like you say "nothing really life changing" then i think if one wants to gamble a bit on what is probably near the odds of the professional counter is not so ludicrous of an idea. truth be know it isn't really so hard to just watch the cards as they come out in some crappy ruled game with over crowded conditions and even (shudder) poor penetration playing all (shudder) and pretty well gauge the true count with out even counting. and then make some intelligent guess bets that might pull your fat out of the fire or even get you ahead. your mistakes you make aren't going to be much more if any more serious than the mistakes that the orthodox counter is bound to make.
in short given the crappy conditions as mentioned above then using the FC you might have one thing going for you that under the crowded conditions the shoes go fairly quick giving you at least a pretty good turn over of shoes so that you might at least spot some times when the count gets in tha TC>=2<=4 range or better so that you can justify throwing out some bigger bets from time to time and when the apparent true count variation is more lethargic but apparently in relatively low positive territory you can make some more low end sized bets to try and approximate some proper optimal bet ramp of some well understood simulation or game plan worked out with maths.

 

[Kasi]

:devil: me thinks you like that more than getting the money lol. .

And that's why you are the Wise One lol.

You have access to games with Late Surrender? That sounds interesting.

Anyway, I guess your FC is maybe really just an orthodox count with more "errors".

For as much as you enjoy the game, and as much as I guess you like to play, I just don't get why you don't just use a RC or switch to KO or something. I assume FC means you at least kind of count the cards dealt that round more or less? If so, why not do it for all rounds. And if you think "I could be off by a couple" every so often, probably not a real big deal lol.

But I also understand lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

And that's why you are the Wise One lol.

right either that or wise guy

You have access to games with Late Surrender? That sounds interesting.

yep heh, heh well at least i did and i think i still do. just moved lately and haven't hit the local joints but i think one of them has it or at least it did.
it was one little ray of sunshine that peaked out of the dismal little world of blackjack i was confined in lol.

Anyway, I guess your FC is maybe really just an orthodox count with more "errors".

thats how i look at it. but maybe more or less errors. and as far as i can see when i inspect my practice logs on CVBJ one hell of a lot of errors. admittedly i've even found some (shudder) count reversal errors.
but even with that what i can see in my practice logs is that my betting is significantly close to what my ideal betting ramp is for the ideal CVCX simm for the games that i play in the real world. some day i'll get around to figuring out what percent betting error it is that i'm actually making.

For as much as you enjoy the game, and as much as I guess you like to play, I just don't get why you don't just use a RC or switch to KO or something.

lol i think we went over this before but it's the one thing that puzzles anyone thats ever bothered to take the time to discuss it with me.
i only counted cards for about a few years and i really enjoyed it for the most part. but there was something that was bothering me about it that i didn't even realize until i hit what was some pretty nasty negative fluctuation in what i believe was a positive advantage situation. but anyway after a little soul searching about the game i realized that ignoring losing money the biggest thing that bothered me about counting cards was the awareness during play in a precise manner of just how bad the current advantage situation tended to be predominately. counting the RC (especially under the playing conditions i live in) is really a tedious thing. crowded tables, poor pen, slow dealers and players. and what is the average number of shoes that one is going to see a decent true count advantage? i think it tends to be about one in five or so and not in any particular order so it can often be what seem like endless stretchs of shoes that present no advantage. you will probably laugh at this but when i think back on when i was counting the RC that i can liken the experience of those high cards dribbling out to ruin the count to a slow drip ancient chineese water torture. :flame:
then on top of that you know you finally get a good double down situation with a lot of money out and you know you get an ACE on you eleven or what ever sort of thing.

I assume FC means you at least kind of count the cards dealt that round more or less? If so, why not do it for all rounds. And if you think "I could be off by a couple" every so often, probably not a real big deal lol.

But I also understand lol.

right well thats what i'm trying to do as you say for all the rounds while trying to do true count estimation. but instead of counting its more like watching maybe a opaque box of black and white gumballs thats been shaken up real good being poured into another box. and your trying to guess from what you've seen as the gumballs flow out of the box what the ratio of black to white gumballs is thats flowed out to where you can guess what the ratio of black to white gumballs are left to be poured out.
so it's a sort of a vision skill/judgement sort of thing.
and i'm practically half blind and half witted to boot.
but for me it's more fun than counting.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

I find that counts above +7 in 8 multi deck in ac are very rare, i counter this by playing my max bets whenevr i hit about +4 and leave them there regardless of the count unless it falls to nuetral, or negetive, this way i know im getting my money in for possitive expectation.

Idk about 60 hours never seeing a positive count, but i do recall...
-an evening where i sat for four hours and placed about 6 bets over minimimum due to all negetive counts
-A two day session of nonstop play lasting 25 hours where i still lost 325 dollars
-And a 45 minute session of three consectutive astronomically possitive shoes, including the one where i got a hand at +12 and lost ~2000 on each one for a totaly of over 6000 in losses.

You just gotta trust that youll win more than you lose, not that that very hand your going to win.

On the other side of the table i was sitting and playing at a highly negetive shoe one time (only because they were printing a comp card for me) and the tc hit -5! i was thinking god i want to leave this table so bad, but the dealer busted about 6 out of 8 hands all with tens and i won the others by higher totals and i went on to make about 150 bucks playing 15 a hand. I got my comp card and left asap.

 

[golfnut101]

On top of the world for 5 sec

then on top of that you know you finally get a good double down situation with a lot of money out and you know you get an ACE on you eleven or what ever sort of thing.

I have had a run of neg variance for approx. three months now. Constantly pushing the big bet out, only to see the dealer make a 4 or 5 card 21...spreading to two hands, only to get two stiffs...but the other night, I was
on top of the world for 5 seconds ! Let me explain. I use KO-P, with an adjusted IRC of -14 for 6d game. Count climbs to +13 w/2d remaining. In the back of my mind, Im thinking, "Oh man, here we go again". But, I do believe in the math, and the fact that I have busted my hump and spent alot of time to get these opportunities, so I cant @#$% the bed now. So, I lay down my 'big' bets...10.00 unit....2x8(1-16 spread, right?)I get a 5 on the first hand(like I said, here we go)followed by paint. Dealer draws a 5. Hey, some potential. First 5 gets a twin. Oh god, I gotta double now ??? 2nd hand...whats this-some back door action ! Now, Im feeling pretty good. So, I put that double down faster than you can say five card 21, and wouldnt you know it, the bj gods decide to show compassion this night on the ol' golfnut, as I receive an Ace on my double. I sit back, and exclaim to the others at the table, "For 5 seconds, I am on top of the world !" I could not lose. Yes, a push on hand one is a possibility, but, what a feeling...I could not be beat. And sure enough, as I revel in the laughs and try to share my joy with others, the gods send two face cards the dealers way, to complete my moment of glory. So, their is some truth in the saying that the sun doesnt shine on the same dogs ass every day !

 

[Kasi]

lol i think we went over this before but it's the one thing that puzzles anyone thats ever bothered to take the time to discuss it with me.

Well I know we have lol. I guess the Yin and Yang of it fascinates me a little - like together we might actually be a good BJ player lol.

You FC but it sounds like you still bet "big" ("biggish") based on your FC that might be exact, close, or way off and would like to win a fair amount of change lol. I maybe count in a more traditional fashion, at least think I know what it is, but no way am I ramping a big bankroll in AC games or betting 10 times the min every time just because the count is pretty darn good and calls for it or bother back-counting. I'll take my expected $3 loss per hour and see what happens. Sometimes it's "Thank God I didn't bet real big in that count", sometimes not lol.

Actually what usually seems to happen is I signal my wife, who just can't wait to bet bigger at any opportunity, to go ahead and bet $25 or $50 if she wants, and then she quickly adds to her stack and gets mad at me after she loses and says "I made her do it"

Anyway, I really wanted to say a LS game might be worth dusting off your old count, getting some glasses for those half-blind eyes and stimulate that half-atrophied fuzzy-counting brain of yours lol. PM with details if actually true - even an OCD like me suffering from bigbetaphobia might walk down to the bank and with, with, withdraw mmmmoney lol. I can barely even say it lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

Well I know we have lol. I guess the Yin and Yang of it fascinates me a little - like together we might actually be a good BJ player lol.

well now that i think i understand how it is you go about your betting
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=69145&postcount=36
i've for the time being adopted that approach with a lessened amount of the ramping i was using but still just using the FC and the same spread 1-12.

You FC but it sounds like you still bet "big" ("biggish") based on your FC that might be exact, close, or way off and would like to win a fair amount of change lol. I maybe count in a more traditional fashion, at least think I know what it is, but no way am I ramping a big bankroll in AC games or betting 10 times the min every time just because the count is pretty darn good and calls for it or bother back-counting. I'll take my expected $3 loss per hour and see what happens. Sometimes it's "Thank God I didn't bet real big in that count", sometimes not lol.

yea i'm with you on that see what happens tactic. lol... it may not be the way to properly play but at least one can monitor the situation over all and back off and reflect about the bottom line and all.
same here pretty much (except i was trying to ramp) but at other joints. never been to AC yet. heck i think i would actually really count and back-count there a bit.

Actually what usually seems to happen is I signal my wife, who just can't wait to bet bigger at any opportunity, to go ahead and bet $25 or $50 if she wants, and then she quickly adds to her stack and gets mad at me after she loses and says "I made her do it"

i tryed that with my wife and she made all the money and of course i was lossing my hands. so who do you think kept the proceeds. and then when she would lose i'd guiltily fish in my wallet and give her back what she lost to boot. :cool2: but then there is more to life than money lol.

Anyway, I really wanted to say a LS game might be worth dusting off your old count, getting some glasses for those half-blind eyes and stimulate that half-atrophied fuzzy-counting brain of yours lol. PM with details if actually true - even an OCD like me suffering from bigbetaphobia might walk down to the bank and with, with, withdraw mmmmoney lol. I can barely even say it lol.

yep the LS is nice when you invariably pull a 16 vs dealer's 10 with your big bet out lol.
i did just get some prescription glasses subcumming to what i see as age discrimination by the DMV when i was forced to re-take both the written test and the vision test after moving from one state to another. and of course i see for the most part worse with the glasses than with out but at least i passed the DMV vision test lol. the written test i also flunked (after 43 years of safe driving record). i attribute that to over analzing their ambiguous questions with my half-atrophied age discriminated brain. so i had to read their damm book with these glasses i can't really see out of and actually ascertain what they think are the right answers to finally pass their damm test. i actually considered trying to get them to have some one read me the test to where i could pick their brains as to what the question really meant instead of reading the book but i figured if i did that they might just figured me as being crazy or something and end up forcing me to take the driving test. lol.
but on the counting i doubt i'll ever go back to orthodox (unless maybe in AC where i suppose it's easier to back count). just to many hands and shoes go by that are crap for my feeble ole noggin to deal with emotionally in these games i play that pretty much need to be done play all or not at all. if i was in Vegas or some where with a bunch of joints you could have a blast running all over town and all then maybe i would go back to orthodox count then to.
never been to Vegas or Reno either. i could just ever visit those venues and then if i did the time frrrammme exposure would be so short i'd for sure be worrying a-aabout go going to to the ba-bank and ta-taking out mmm-my my mm-mmoney. lol