shuffle tracking

[gui]

I'm a newcomer who believe that the best way to crack the game is to
use shuffle tracking methods... It seems this idea is not original at
all even if i'm develloping myself my own method which have a good potential

One thing I wonder is what the most realistic assumption can we make
when we try to analyse riffs. (A riff consist of taking a pile of card
on each hand, usually half a deck, pull up the corner with the thumbs
and make the cards fall in a new pile.

In the model a created each riffed card have 50% to come from the left
pile an 50% from the right one. Every riffs is possible that way. A
sequence of 10 cards in a row from the same pile is possible in this model (still rare).

I disagree with the model:

1 from the same pile: 60%
2 " " " : 24%
3 " " " : 10%
4 " " " : 4%
5 " " " : 2%

which suggest a "to perfect" alternance

 

[Jake {|:>)]

forest and trees

I suggest that the model is not bad, but so what? What you need to understand for tracking purposes is that if you know the count of those two grabs how many times they are riffed stripped etc. the resultant order is not the most important thing. That the predicted count of the grab pair remains invariant is. If you are sequencing, a much different technique, then order and position are paramount. Better decide what you are doing.