Simple, but winning.

[davidmcclung]

Since we know that betting schemes do not work for the non-counter, my latest flat betting has been winning for the last 6 sessions and is sooo simple: Playing double deck with good old fashioned rules, buy in for $600 and play $25 per hand flat betting which is 24 units. When winning $100+ at the end of the shoe(although no shoe involved but gets the point across), then quit the session. Most have been down to date is about 15 units. I wonder what the odds are of getting ahead 4 units playing with 24 units playing perfect basic strategy with good double deck rules, it has to be favorable based on my experience to date.

 

[Mimosine]

it has to be favorable based on my experience to date.

this is an anecdote it is evidence of nothing other than a few sessions worth of results. on each and every hand of blackjack you play without an edge you have a bigger chance of losing than winning. so given this FACT how will your strategy ever net money in the long run? because you always quit when you're ahead..... right, i forgot about that.

 

[Sonny]

I wonder what the odds are of getting ahead 4 units playing with 24 units playing perfect basic strategy...

Roughly 85%. Unfortunately, the other 15% of the time you will lose more than that, possibly all 24 units. The majority of the time you will win a little money but the occasional big losses will take away all your winnings. Think about it: If you only win 4 units per session, it will only take 1 ruinous session to erase the past 6 winning sessions.

This is a good system for people who want to win small amounts of money frequently but won’t be frustrated when they lose it all back very quickly. Basically, anyone with a positive progression mindset will enjoy this.

-Sonny-

 

[davidmcclung]

Sonny:

So my actual average win to date has been $120 with above playing rules(quitting at the end of the double deck shoe when $100 or more winning), so $120 x 8.5 equals $1020, and expected average losses of 1.5 x $600 equals $900, so net win of $120. Net Win is the key word here, if it holds true.

 

[Sonny]

You should expect to win $100 85% of the time and lose $600 15% of the time. That’s a net loss of $5 per session. I would guess that your average session length will be about 40 hands.

-Sonny-

 

[davidmcclung]

Tonight:

Was a typical session, played about half an hour total, just me and one other player. For me at this point in my career it is just about the winning, not playing for the fun of it anymore and do not enjoy long sessions. Tonight, at the end of my last shoe was plus $137.50, so terminated the session. That was the first time I ended the shoe(double deck hand shuffled) where I was up the mandatory $100 or more. Was down at the worse about 5 units, and before the last shoe was winning between at the most $50 and $75 at the end of the prior shoes, the last shoe put me over, luckily, or was it luck?. Most sessions during the night we are up 4 or more units at the end of the shoe, if playing double deck with good rules, not always, but at least 85% of the time I would guess per Sonny's figures.

 

[Sonny]

For me at this point in my career it is just about the winning, not playing for the fun of it anymore and do not enjoy long sessions.

I think this system will work well for you. You will win the majority of your sessions, which seems to be your goal, and your sessions should be pretty short. As long as you can handle the losing sessions where you lose your money back you should be fine. If you can wrangle some comps out of the casino or take advantage of some promotions then you could be close to break-even in the end. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy yourself.

-Sonny-

 

[davidmcclung]

It is still winning:

Can now lose 2 straight sessions and still be even, as still undefeated after 10 sessions. And per Sonny's math, I am overdue for a session loss. The trick here is to have the self discipline to quit at $100 as $100 is the key win figure at the end of the two deck shoe. Often, I will be winning slightly more, about $125 at the end of the shoe, when I reach the $100 stop play figure, but do continue playing until the end of the shoe for best results, then quit the session if at least $100 winning for session. Afterall, $100 tax free is still a lot of money for most often only a few minutes of play at $25 per hand, and I will sometimes play 2 sessions per day trip. Although losses will no doubt occurr in the future which will average down the win rate. For you noncounters who are serious about walking out a winner, I can now absolutely recommend this simple scheme of play, as it has worked so well after extended play to date. It is not a particularly fun way to play, but fun progression or regression schemes, even card counting, have not performed nearly as well for me with much more risk. It is not easy to find a 10 straight winner scheme, as many of us know, will advise furthur after another 10 sessions. I like to give it a full 100 sessions if it continues a net winner, for a more thorough evaluation before increasing my betting levels.

 

[Sonny]

And per Sonny's math, I am overdue for a session loss.

You’re not overdue for anything. There are several threads in this forum that explain exactly why this is not true. I’ve often wondered if people read the other threads in this forum. It’s a shame that most people don’t want to learn from other people’s mistakes.

You have won money during your past sessions. That money is yours to keep. Enjoy it. In the future you should expect to lose .5% of all your action. If you play long enough then you will eventually drain your winnings and your bankroll. Although there will be large negative swings in the future, you should not assume that they are overdue because of your past results. The only thing you should expect is to slowly lose it all back.

Afterall, $100 tax free is still a lot of money for most often only a few minutes of play at $25 per hand, and I will sometimes play 2 sessions per day trip.

That money is not tax free! It is still considered income so you need to report it on your tax forms. In fact, gambling winnings are taxed at a much higher rate than standard income. They also do not qualify for social security, 401k or other tax deferred benefits. The money that you win in a casino is often worth much less than money you earn as “legitimate” income.

For you noncounters who are serious about walking out a winner, I can now absolutely recommend this simple scheme of play, as it has worked so well after extended play to date.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on there. You can’t possibly consider 10 sessions to be “extended play” by any means, especially with the short session you are playing. That’s only an average of 400 hands. That’s completely meaningless. You even said that you were expecting a negative swing that will reduce your average earnings. How can you say that your results are reliable after you admit that they are not accurate? I’m glad that you’ve had success so far, but you can’t encourage other people to use this system if you don’t know how it works.

It is not easy to find a 10 straight winner scheme, as many of us know…

Actually it’s very easy to win 10 straight sessions, especially when your sessions are as short as yours are. And since your goal is only 4 units it is very easy to win very quickly. You could use almost any system and still have a reasonable chance of being ahead. In fact, if you were flat betting during those sessions then you were winning the majority of those hands. Pretty much any system will win if you are winning most of your hands. The true test of a system will be how it performs during an average session. We already know that an average session will lose 0.5% of the money you bet, but I guess you want to find that our for yourself.

-Sonny-

 

[davidmcclung]

Here are my thoughts:

Very few blackjack players playing this game have won their latest 10 sessions with their current scheme, I can assure you and would have done much better with flat betting on double deck with a minimal win goal, and frankly I am surprised that I have with this simple scheme. Although my wins may be small by some standards, $100-$125 range, it is the cumulative net result that matters. What I have determined for me is that I need 24 units flat betting, not too much that wipes out the net wins, but enough for a real good chance of a session win based on the normal ups and downs of a typical session playing at a double deck with good rules. And the four unit win standard is another critical component, not too much but enough for a decent win, as too high a win goal is too much risk. Along with playing until the end of the shoe that allows for a $100+ session win although it does carry slightly more overall risk. Now all of these factors combined, I may just be on to something positive here after playing it for an estimated 10 hrs of actual gaming over 10 sessions which is enough to give me some confidence in the results thusfar, as had a few 3 hr sessions although many are short sessions which is a good thing. So will continue to march on, damn the torpedoes. As most of us already know, gambling is inherently high risk, we can only hope to minimize the risk to give us the maximum chance of a session win.

 

[shadroch]

Playing BJ with an advantage is not high risk. All you need is to have a large enough BR to get you thru negative swings.
Your results thus far are utterly meaningless. Ten hours of play is but a moment in the career of a player.Show us the results after you've gotten 500 hours under your belt.

 

[Sonny]

Very few blackjack players playing this game have won their latest 10 sessions with their current scheme…

If they always quit after a 4-unit win they would. If they quit after a 1-unit win they would win even more sessions, but that doesn’t mean they would have an advantage. It’s not the frequency of winning sessions that matters, it’s their size. You can win 99% of your sessions but then lose it all back at some point. Just ask any progression player.

If you end up with less money than you started with then you do not have a winning system and should not expect to win. I don’t see why that is so difficult to understand.

Although my wins may be small by some standards, $100-$125 range, it is the cumulative net result that matters.

That’s exactly the point. What do you think will happen when you add up all those short sessions into one long session? The results will be the same as if you had played a single long session. We all know what happens when you flat bet and play BS against the house edge, right? That doesn’t change. If you don’t believe me, read some of the other posts in this forum about quit points, stop-loss limits, stop-win limits, targets and other voodoo techniques. The only difference is that you are losing slower than someone who plays longer sessions.

Now all of these factors combined, I may just be on to something positive here after playing it for an estimated 10 hrs of actual gaming over 10 sessions which is enough to give me some confidence in the results thusfar…

So after 10 hours you are confident in your results? I though you said that you were “overdue” for a losing session. How can you be confident in your results if you think that they are going to significantly change in the near future? How reliable can they be if they are fluctuating so much and so often? How can you be even the least bit confident when you have no idea what is going to happen? I’ve got some bad news for you: That’s not confidence, that’s ignorance. Do you really want to put your reputation on the line for something that you really don’t know or understand? Do you really want other people using your system when you have no idea what sort of results to expect? Can you really feel confident when so many people can easily see the flaws that you overlook? Is that really confidence you’re feeling?

So will continue to march on, damn the torpedoes.

The battle cry of the hopeless gambler.

-Sonny-

 

[InPlay]

Very few blackjack players playing this game have won their latest 10 sessions with their current scheme, QUOTE]

Don't know how true that statement is but personally I have had a streak of 15 winning sessions in a row. Most of the sessions were from 2 to 8 hours winning from $300 to $6,700. It goes both ways last 2 years for me 06,07 have been negative but 08 is starting better, It's just a question of how much pain you can stand and how big your BR is.

 

[Kasi]

Since we know that betting schemes do not work for the non-counter, my latest flat betting ....
we can only hope to minimize the risk to give us the maximum chance of a session win.

Flat-betting is about the worst thing you could pick. There are lots of betting systems that will give you a much higher chance of winning a session or the $100.

Heck take your 5K roll, turn it into 50 units and use Oscar's Grind at the crap table. You'll win that $100 unit 97% of the time or so lol. One of many systems that greatly increase the chance of a winning session.

 

[aslan]

The only thing you should expect is to slowly lose it all back.

That is a reasonable expectation. You might also lose it back very rapidly. That is a distinct possibility. lol

 

[aslan]

Flat-betting is about the worst thing you could pick. There are lots of betting systems that will give you a much higher chance of winning a session or the $100.

Heck take your 5K roll, turn it into 50 units and use Oscar's Grind at the crap table. You'll win that $100 unit 97% of the time or so lol. One of many systems that greatly increase the chance of a winning session.

And hopefully you won't lose the big one when you need it most!

Also, guess what? You can lose the big one three times in a row! Then you won't think much of the grind because it will be a really big grind to recoup your losses, if you're lucky enough to ever do so! I guess the definition of hell could be being on the wrong side of a progression.

 

[davidmcclung]

New No Retreat Scheme

Did have an overall winner $500 winner in 15 sessions with my prior flat bet scheme, but too boring even for me. Have now played this new scheme that I have entitled No Retreat Scheme for two sessions, 12 hrs of playing, and it has worked very well to date. Yes, I do realize that two sessions is not much. Here it is: Play double deck pitch with good rules, plenty of these BJ pitch games with good old fashioned rules here in Mississippi. $600 session bankroll. Start off with $15 initial bet after the shuffle. Then after each win increase your bet by $5 continuing until the end of the shoe. Do NOT decrease your bet after a loss or push. So after your first win at the $15 level, your next bet will be $20 and if you lose that $20 hand then next hand will remain at $20, if win the next hand at $20 then next bet is $25, etc. Increase your next bet by $5 after each win until the end of the shoe and do not decrease your bet during the shoe, then start over at $15 on the new shoe and continue with up one unit after each win, no retreating. Fun and profitable thusfar.

 

[ChefJJ]

Did have an overall winner $500 winner in 15 sessions with my prior flat bet scheme, but too boring even for me. Have now played this new scheme that I have entitled No Retreat Scheme for two sessions, 12 hrs of playing, and it has worked very well to date. Yes, I do realize that two sessions is not much. Here it is: Play double deck pitch with good rules, plenty of these BJ pitch games with good old fashioned rules here in Mississippi. $600 session bankroll. Start off with $15 initial bet after the shuffle. Then after each win increase your bet by $5 continuing until the end of the shoe. Do NOT decrease your bet after a loss or push. So after your first win at the $15 level, your next bet will be $20 and if you lose that $20 hand then next hand will remain at $20, if win the next hand at $20 then next bet is $25, etc. Increase your next bet by $5 after each win until the end of the shoe and do not decrease your bet during the shoe, then start over at $15 on the new shoe and continue with up one unit after each win, no retreating. Fun and profitable thusfar.

David,

I've been lurking on a craps message board for a little while now, and notice that you do a bit of "tinkering" with systems and such. I give you a lot of credit for your work in Voodoo betting schemes. They are quite creative...and I'm not being a smart ass.

good luck

 

[Kasi]

And You can lose the big one three times in a row!

Actually one grinds until either getting 1 unit or losing all the roll.

So it can only happen once. But I guess it could 3 times in a row if you kept replenishing it.

I'd rather take my chances with having a 97% chance of winning that same $100 than a whole lot less than that risking the same roll.

How many times do you think you could always pick one of those 97 black marbles out of the bag before you pulled one of the white ones lol?

 

[aslan]

Actually one grinds until either getting 1 unit or losing all the roll.

So it can only happen once. But I guess it could 3 times in a row if you kept replenishing it.

I'd rather take my chances with having a 97% chance of winning that same $100 than a whole lot less than that risking the same roll.

How many times do you think you could always pick one of those 97 black marbles out of the bag before you pulled one of the white ones lol?

You know, life is funny. there are times when you are favored to lose the big one. lol You know what I mean. Sometimes life seems like we're living in the Matrix, but when you map it all out you keep getting the same old standard deviation. lol Sometimes you can see the handwriting on the wall as if there was never a chance for any other outcome. I can't explain it. All I know is that I can't control it either, so I just have to keep living my life according to the true odds lol as if things really do happen by chance. For all intents and purposes they do. If I ever do win the big one, maybe I'll change my mind. Or is it because I changed my mind that I won the big one? lol