Simulation Needed

[Kirk Warren]

Can someone help me out. I've been counting for about 5 months now, but with my current bankroll, I would like to have a simulation run for expected value, standard deviation, etc. I use HiLo, and know the Illustrutious 18 variances to basic strategy.

Bankroll - 10,000
Bet Spread
>0 = minimum (probably $5)
+1 = $10
+2 = $20
+3 = $30
+4 = $40
+5 = $50
>+6 = $60 (which is a 1-12 bet spread)

Table conditions - 6 deck, no resplit Aces, double any two cards, double after split, dealer Hits S17, penetration 80% (always find dealers that cut 1 deck out, sometimes certain dealers will deal into 6th deck)

I prefer to play mostly in the mornings, with 1 or 2 people at the table.

Can someone run this simulation. I would like to know if my current spread is appropriate, my expected value, risk, etc.

Thanks. If its something you need to email to me, I can put my email address down.

 

[zengrifter]

no sim, but...

...it is sufficient, however, you need to abandon the shoe at TC -2 and go to another or wait... or play every other or 3rd hand in the -2 and below counts. zg

 

[stainless steel rat]

cvcx results

Your bet ramp is bad. Your expected win rate is about $7 per hour, which just barely edges out flipping burgers at micky-D's...

With that bankroll, CVCX suggests a betting spread of $10-$120 which turns your win rate into $21 per hour. The ramp suggested is this:

TC <= 1 10
TC = 2 50
TC = 3 90
TC >= 4 120

That produces a 12.3% risk of ruin...

Hope that helps...

 

[zengrifter]

You can probably get $20/100hands with lower RoR...

...and a top bet of $60 if you avoid the negative counts as I have recommended. zg

 

[Kirk Warren]

-2

I did forget to mention that I would opt out at -2.
I usually wait out the shoe or go to another table, if that table is starting a new shoe. Am I too assume, by not playing counts less than that, my win rate is higher than $7? I considered the $10 minimum, but that bet spread seems strange.

 

[stainless steel rat]

more data

Wouldn't disagree that it would help. This was a play all sim. Just for fun, since CVCX handles back-counting, going back to the 5-60 spread, the hourly win rate for play all is $7.34. wonging in at 0 produces a win rate of $10.41. Going to +1 before entering wins at $11.64.

If you wong in at +1, you will play about 28% of the rounds dealt, but using the $5-$60, the ROR is zero with that big a bank... You could easily play $25 to $200 (1-8 spread) and make $25 per hour with a 12% ROR. Note that this isn't really a 1-8 spread since bets at a TC of 0 or less are 0...

 

[stainless steel rat]

the problem

If you wong out at some level, you don't play as much. For example, wonging in at +1 above means you only play 28 of every 100 hands. For that 28 hands, your win rate is far higher than if you play all. But you are only playing 1/4 the total hands. That cuts into your overall win rate as CVCX shows in the numbers I posted.

You can't forget to factor in the "idle time". If you try the $25-$200 spread I gave, you ramp up your win rate significantly even with the 72% "idle time" where you are not playing...

 

[Kirk Warren]

Trip Bankroll

I've never been able to figure out, what would be correct trip bankroll then? How does one determine that? Is it possible to figure out trip standard deviation then, based on wonging out at -1 or 0.

Thanks

 

[stainless steel rat]

how I do it...

I simply use either CVData, to run a sim for the specific (exact) rules I will be playing, and then twiddle with either (a) the bankroll to let CVData tell me the optimal betting ramp and I twiddle until the min/max bet is what I want to play or (b) I set the minimum bet and ramp, and let CVData tell me the BR I need for an acceptable ROR.

Of course there are ROR calculators around, including the one in CVBJ. And yes, it is based on the standard deviation for the BR/rules/bet ramp you are going to be using...

Simple advice, play SD/DD if possible (Standard Deviation is lower) so long as you can play without getting tossed out...