I have been learning how to play BJ for some time, doing my best to read up on the subject, memorizing basic strategy, playing store-bought games on my laptop, practicing with an online tutorial that uses multiple decks with various rules, talking to and observing as many players and dealers as I can, and trying out various betting strategies (flat betting, positive and negative progressions, and, as advised by authors such as Richard Harvey, betting according to the flow of the cards). In fact, (because I quite simply lack the ability to hold onto numbers) about the only thing I haven’t done, is to learn how to count cards. I do however have a few idiosyncrasies, and this is why I have posted this query. You see, I’m not sure if I lose as often as I do because of these quirks of mine, or because of other factors that are beyond my ability to control.
To begin with, I am a very conservative player who never plays with more than a $250.00 stake at $5 or $10 tables, and who has almost never bet more than $40 on any one hand. Next, because I believe that the dealer is just as likely as I am to be holding either a 10 or a face card, and because 2’s are so wild, I never double or split anything other than Aces against either a 2 or a 10 and always hit anything lower than a 15 against a 2. Also, because I have more respect for 3’s than I probably should, I am very cautious about splitting or doubling against them, yet where basic strategy will say to hit a hard 9 against a 7, I will usually double. On the other hand, because none of the casinos I play at allow surrenders, as per basic strategy, I hit any 16 against a ten, and am almost invariably sorry that I did.
Perhaps craziest of all, noting that I lose far more hands than I win, I have even gone so far as to try out what I call a “Modified” or “Limited” Martingale system in which I only increase my bet until my stake is decreased to the nearest fifty or hundred dollars, and only rarely double or split on bets that would take me beyond this limit. What I do instead, when the shoe turns “cold,” (I have lost more than three or four hands in a row, and/or the dealer isn’t busting nearly as much as he or she should) is to simply sit out a few hands, or wait until the shoe is finished, and begin again, which brings me to the point. While I have become so proficient at playing on my own, that my winning streaks can actually become boring, when playing with the exact same strategies in actual casinos, the precisely opposite happens. For example, the last time I played, using a stake of 40x my lowest unit bet, I lost it all, returned home, and proceeded to win $1,000.00 on a simulated game, using the identical rules, strategies, and stake! So, here’s my question: Is it my idiosyncratic behavior that is getting the better of me, or is the discrepancy between what happens at home and in actual casino play due to the combination of dealers picking up busted hands early, depth of penetrations, and CSMs clumping cards? And if this is the case, for those of us who, after driving for three plus hours just to get to a riverboat casino, want to play blackjack for more than one or two shoes, is there any way to counter these effects (other than counting cards)? Thanks much.
P.S. I’ve considered online gambling, but because it is essentially illegal in the U.S., and because I so dearly love the live action, I would appreciate any help or feedback that you might offer.
To begin with, I am a very conservative player who never plays with more than a $250.00 stake at $5 or $10 tables, and who has almost never bet more than $40 on any one hand. Next, because I believe that the dealer is just as likely as I am to be holding either a 10 or a face card, and because 2’s are so wild, I never double or split anything other than Aces against either a 2 or a 10 and always hit anything lower than a 15 against a 2. Also, because I have more respect for 3’s than I probably should, I am very cautious about splitting or doubling against them, yet where basic strategy will say to hit a hard 9 against a 7, I will usually double. On the other hand, because none of the casinos I play at allow surrenders, as per basic strategy, I hit any 16 against a ten, and am almost invariably sorry that I did.
Perhaps craziest of all, noting that I lose far more hands than I win, I have even gone so far as to try out what I call a “Modified” or “Limited” Martingale system in which I only increase my bet until my stake is decreased to the nearest fifty or hundred dollars, and only rarely double or split on bets that would take me beyond this limit. What I do instead, when the shoe turns “cold,” (I have lost more than three or four hands in a row, and/or the dealer isn’t busting nearly as much as he or she should) is to simply sit out a few hands, or wait until the shoe is finished, and begin again, which brings me to the point. While I have become so proficient at playing on my own, that my winning streaks can actually become boring, when playing with the exact same strategies in actual casinos, the precisely opposite happens. For example, the last time I played, using a stake of 40x my lowest unit bet, I lost it all, returned home, and proceeded to win $1,000.00 on a simulated game, using the identical rules, strategies, and stake! So, here’s my question: Is it my idiosyncratic behavior that is getting the better of me, or is the discrepancy between what happens at home and in actual casino play due to the combination of dealers picking up busted hands early, depth of penetrations, and CSMs clumping cards? And if this is the case, for those of us who, after driving for three plus hours just to get to a riverboat casino, want to play blackjack for more than one or two shoes, is there any way to counter these effects (other than counting cards)? Thanks much.
P.S. I’ve considered online gambling, but because it is essentially illegal in the U.S., and because I so dearly love the live action, I would appreciate any help or feedback that you might offer.
