johndoe said:
The difference is that, with OG like any other voodoo strategy, you can't "expect" to win, over the short or long run. You're just gambling.
Of course one is always "just gambling", just as one is while even playing with an avg +EV like, say, in BJ.
With OG, given what I said before, all one knows is one will and can expect to win one unit over 997 times out of 1000 times of trying to win that one unit.
So, for me, I actually probably would expect to win that one unit in my first series since I will win that one unit over 997 times of 1000.
Later, likely curse my luck, that the 3 times of 1000 I would lose my roll happened to actually occur on the first series lol.
The difference between this and some bozo playing crazy BS is only the percentage of time he can expect to be ahead with so many units as a roll playing for an amount of fixed time.
But, yes, I get your point it probably ain't a great system to use playing "forever" and agree you will most likely be behind when you are 10000 years old.
For a guy playing a week once a year in Vegas, likely with a replenishable roll for next year, say $2500, why not use it to increase chances of being ahead after one week at a $5 crap table? Perhaps better than some goofy AP guy playing-all at a crappy game with a 250 unit roll.
Like, maybe, you'd say the OG guy was just plain "lucky" but the underfunded AP guy was really "unlucky" after the former had come out ahead a few bucks and the latter had finished behind a few bucks behind in the same amount of time?
With whatever system one may choose to use, may one know, in the example above, who was actually the "luckier".
Either way, the broader point, never bet $1 without knowing what to expect for what you plan on doing and the risk one is exposing one's roll to.
I forgot to add the other night, whenever I pontificate on OG, the only reason I say what I do is due to Miplet's magnificent software (imho).
So, what I do say, is also based on simulation software I trust.
I hope noone ever thought for one second I was even possibly capable of doing anything other than re-gurgitating results from a sim.
I have invested the time of playing 1000's of spins at a random single-0roulette wheel that helped me to trust Miplet's software as some other thread will show.
Miplet is too modest to bother with this stuff but, personally, I absolutely love his software and thank him for expanding the possibilities of my voodoo horizons. And for FREE.
You guys here have absolutely no idea how difficult it is for me to wager $1 on anything without knowing, or at least thinking I know, what to expect lol. I'll play -EV games but I pass 3-card poker tables with pay-tables I'm not familiar with, VP machines with pay-tables I don't recognize, and, by extension, maybe don't feel I know a good-enough BS for that game, I am absolutely and utterly paralyzed and can't play until I know what I'm looking at.
But, now, thanks to Miplet, I have no problem whatsoever having fun on some 25 cents electronic single-0 roulette machine or craps machine.
It's a curse. And, maybe, a blessing.
As Monk might say lol.
You guys decide.
