Automatic Monkey
Banned
Played for about 10 hours today. I was way up for a while, about 100 units, then everything just turned to garbage. Sure- if this has happened once it's ahppened a thousand times. I went from a huge, proud pile to cashing out diddly squat in just a few hours.
As I went to my room and counted my diddly squat I realized I was just under EV! Who could ask for anything more? Then I also realized I could have spent all that time working stocking shelves in the supermarket, considered my gas and lodging expenses, and done just as well without dealing with cigarette smoke and the other unpleasantries of a casino. I call this my "Supermarket Criterion"- the value of the unskilled labor of an able-bodied, responsible adult.
Let's assume that you're a green chip player playing with a half-Kelly bankroll- not at all an unreasonable way to do business. That bankroll would be around $40K for a shoe player. A good shoe player with access to good games can expect to make about 2 units per hour or $50/hr in the case of a green chipper. (Let's assume a non-varying betting unit to keep our income fixed) Now you can invest in the market with a similar risk to half-Kelly at about 10% yield, very easily using a margin account and interest bearing devices like bonds and preferreds. That's $4K a year for sleeping. This tells me that the green chipper works his first 80 hours a year for nothing. If he works 160 hours a year he's getting $25/hour for his labor. At least around here most men who have $40K in the bank earn more than $25/hour, and they're quite a bit older than the stereotypical counter.
Now there are a couple of things I've not included in ths analysis. First is taxes which we don't always consider into our math but challenging the IRS in any manner is a gamble in itself and believe me when I tell you if they ever come after you you will wish you had paid up in the first place. The second is that money can be both part of your bankroll and in an investment account doing its job. The drawback to this is that when we have negative flux it takes away from our investment income as we have to sell positions to raise cash. But our flux has a slight tendency to be positive and on every session chances are we will make a profit not a loss. Still the loss of investment income and brokerage expenses has to be factored in, lust like travel and lodging have to be factored into blackjack trip profitability.
What this last paragraph is telling me is that proper management of your bankroll outside of the casino is worth (80 hours/ your yearly playing time) * your yearly EV. And unless you play full time this is very significant. So my very next task is to do a better job of integrating my playing bankroll and my investment accounts, instead of walking around with a roll of cash and pocketed cheques, because that is causing me some very real losses.
As I went to my room and counted my diddly squat I realized I was just under EV! Who could ask for anything more? Then I also realized I could have spent all that time working stocking shelves in the supermarket, considered my gas and lodging expenses, and done just as well without dealing with cigarette smoke and the other unpleasantries of a casino. I call this my "Supermarket Criterion"- the value of the unskilled labor of an able-bodied, responsible adult.
Let's assume that you're a green chip player playing with a half-Kelly bankroll- not at all an unreasonable way to do business. That bankroll would be around $40K for a shoe player. A good shoe player with access to good games can expect to make about 2 units per hour or $50/hr in the case of a green chipper. (Let's assume a non-varying betting unit to keep our income fixed) Now you can invest in the market with a similar risk to half-Kelly at about 10% yield, very easily using a margin account and interest bearing devices like bonds and preferreds. That's $4K a year for sleeping. This tells me that the green chipper works his first 80 hours a year for nothing. If he works 160 hours a year he's getting $25/hour for his labor. At least around here most men who have $40K in the bank earn more than $25/hour, and they're quite a bit older than the stereotypical counter.
Now there are a couple of things I've not included in ths analysis. First is taxes which we don't always consider into our math but challenging the IRS in any manner is a gamble in itself and believe me when I tell you if they ever come after you you will wish you had paid up in the first place. The second is that money can be both part of your bankroll and in an investment account doing its job. The drawback to this is that when we have negative flux it takes away from our investment income as we have to sell positions to raise cash. But our flux has a slight tendency to be positive and on every session chances are we will make a profit not a loss. Still the loss of investment income and brokerage expenses has to be factored in, lust like travel and lodging have to be factored into blackjack trip profitability.
What this last paragraph is telling me is that proper management of your bankroll outside of the casino is worth (80 hours/ your yearly playing time) * your yearly EV. And unless you play full time this is very significant. So my very next task is to do a better job of integrating my playing bankroll and my investment accounts, instead of walking around with a roll of cash and pocketed cheques, because that is causing me some very real losses.