Splitting 99vsX

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
Ive been running exstenvie index generation w/CVdata>Multi-pass>Greater accuracy, for a 2D,DAS game. On the first pass it showed split 99vsX@+15, (Halves)which i presumed to be in error and that it would naturaly correct itself on the second and final pass. To my surprise, a day later when this hand came back around i was really surprised, again to see Split 99vsX @ +15.

I also checked kcs CDCA program and it also shows EV with specific cards removed. 52 cards removed from a 2D game.

Could CVdata be correct, or is this an error. Im not sure what to think:confused:
 

Attachments

cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
You didn't remove any Aces, which would be nice since you know the dealer doesn't have one. You also didn't remove any 2s, which is nice with 9s in a DAS game.

So if you find yourself at the 1 deck point in a double deck game, with a negative hilo count (less of a chance of a T for a dealer's hole card), and twice the aces and twice the deuces still in the remaining deck, split 99 vs T
:grin:
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
jack said:
Ive been running exstenvie index generation w/CVdata>Multi-pass>Greater accuracy, for a 2D,DAS game. On the first pass it showed split 99vsX@+15, (Halves)which i presumed to be in error and that it would naturaly correct itself on the second and final pass. To my surprise, a day later when this hand came back around i was really surprised, again to see Split 99vsX @ +15.

I also checked kcs CDCA program and it also shows EV with specific cards removed. 52 cards removed from a 2D game.

Could CVdata be correct, or is this an error. Im not sure what to think:confused:
i'm lost lol.
why you saying +15 ?
i tryed to set tdca like you have it.
but i only have it set for hilo.
looks like you'd split to me.
do i have everything set right?
are we even on the same page? :confused:
 

Attachments

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
cardcounter0 said:
You didn't remove any Aces, which would be nice since you know the dealer doesn't have one. You also didn't remove any 2s, which is nice with 9s in a DAS game.

So if you find yourself at the 1 deck point in a double deck game, with a negative hilo count (less of a chance of a T for a dealer's hole card), and twice the aces and twice the deuces still in the remaining deck, split 99 vs T
:grin:
Thats true and a very good point. However, I was basically using that as demonstration in that it was possible. Whats troubling and puzzling to me, is whether or not this is an accurate index for CVdata. Not that its worth much, but I think im just more curious and surprised than anything else.
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
i'm lost lol.
why you saying +15 ?
i tryed to set tdca like you have it.
but i only have it set for hilo.
looks like you'd split to me.
do i have everything set right?
are we even on the same page? :confused:

No! turn to page 124, Chapter 5

Just kidding..lol

Ya its all set right.
CVdata says +15 for halves. Im lost too.
So i guess you split a pair of 99vsX @-4 with hi-lo(DAS)no???
 
Last edited:

cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
"So i guess you split a pair of 99vsX @-4 with hi-lo(DAS)no???"

No, there are a huge number of combinations that will arrive at -4
You split 99vsX when there is a shortage of Ts, and double the normal amount of 2s and As.
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
OK fellers, I'll go a bit of a long way for this one and I can only do Hi-Lo or KO at a given pen level, but I think the principle would extend to any other count as well.

In computing an index I think you want the average composition according to a given count. Say decks=2 and pen is 52 cards. (Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/99_v_10.html) _This image_ shows the average Hi-Lo comp probability of drawing each rank from the remaining 52 cards given a hand of 9-9 vs 10 and a running count of -4. If RC =-4 with 1 deck left then TC=-4. This is but one pen level out of many the could be input. The key is that the program shows the probability of drawing each rank considering all of the possible Hi-Lo count distributions at any given pen. What we want to do is reference a composition that as much as possible reflects these probabilities.

Code:
[u]From the program image, average number of each rank remaining in shoe[/u]
(2-6) .08593*52 = 4.47
(7-8) .07913*52 = 4.11
(9) .05935*52 = 3.09
(10) .28038*52 = 14.58
(A) .07235*52 = 3.76
Since we are not dealing in whole numbers, all we can do is use whole numbers that will approximate the above comp.

In tdca you could do the following:
Input 2 decks
Input 9-9 v 10
Remove 4 each (2,3,6)
Remove 3 each (4,5)
Remove 4 each (7,8)
Remove 3 more (9 - total of 5 removed)
Remove 17 more (10 - total of 18 removed)
Remove 4 each (Ace)

This is reasonbly close to the average comp proportions. It only adds to 51 cards because of rounding and using whole numbers and TC=-4.1. Other reasonable whole number approximations could be used and results would vary a little. Also, different pen might change things some. The idea is to do a calculation for something resembling an average comp and not some unlikely extreme comp.
Anyway clicking Calc will test the validity of a Hi-Lo index of -4 for that (~average) comp and a hand 9-9 v 10:
splitting: (-24.89% DAS) (-24.88% NDAS) [DAS < NDAS because doubling 11 according to BS is worse than hitting at this comp]
standing: -13.04%
So, no, do not split 9-9 v 10 at a Hi-Lo TC=-4 and pen of 52/104 cards (and probably at most any other pen.)

Maybe there is some positive index for Wong Halves where it is better to split 9-9 v 10. I don't know for sure but I would tend to doubt it. In any case the index plays would cover the average situation and not necessarily the extremes.

The point is that defining an index from some remote shoe comp doesn't make it right just because it works in that one case. It just may be a long way from what the actual index should be.
 
Last edited:

k_c

Well-Known Member
jack said:
Ive been running exstenvie index generation w/CVdata>Multi-pass>Greater accuracy, for a 2D,DAS game. On the first pass it showed split 99vsX@+15, (Halves)which i presumed to be in error and that it would naturaly correct itself on the second and final pass. To my surprise, a day later when this hand came back around i was really surprised, again to see Split 99vsX @ +15.

I also checked kcs CDCA program and it also shows EV with specific cards removed. 52 cards removed from a 2D game.

Could CVdata be correct, or is this an error. Im not sure what to think:confused:
Jack, (Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/cdca_example.html) _here is the average comp from my other post input into cdca_. Since cdca computes all up cards at once, you need to add 2 nines and a 10 to the shoe comp. Then when you input 9-9 for the player hand, 2 nines are removed as well as dealer's up card (which varies from 2 to ace) for each calculation. I used your example except for the composition.

cdca is optimal whereas tdca is not. cdca can compute overall EV using best play whereas tdca computes overall EV using total dependent basic strategy. cdca can compute optimal EV for playing an individual hand. tdca can vary the total dependent strategy for an individual hand. For example tdca can answer the question, "Is it better to stand on 15, 16, or 17 on a given hand at a given shoe comp?" (tdca defaults to 17 because that's basic strategy, but it can be changed for an individual hand.) Really the only difference between cdca and tdca for this average comp example is that cdca gives an ever so sleightly better EV for splitting.

I did a minor update to cdca's display. The display now automatically clears when a hand, rules, or comp change and I took care of what I felt were some minor inconsistencies in strategy enumeration. The strategies (stand, hit, double, split, surrender) were all correct but the background colors which were supposed to be red for negative EV and black for positive EV may have been wrong. Also when the option to compute using full shoe comp dependent strategy is chosen and the full shoe strategy is different from the optimal strategy then an asterisk is supposed to be appended to the strategy (hit*, for example.) Asterisks were erroneously being appended in some cases.

You may want to download an install the update.
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
Splitting 9s vs 10 is a higher index than doubling after split 10s with an Ace, I think. zg
It's definetely higher than XXvA. I think its still -ev (in + counts)no matter what cards are removed? Not sure why CVdata gave me a index for +15:confused:

EDIT Well maybe not

k_c said:
Jack, (Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/cdca_example.html) _here is the average comp from my other post input into cdca_. Since cdca computes all up cards at once, you need to add 2 nines and a 10 to the shoe comp. Then when you input 9-9 for the player hand, 2 nines are removed as well as dealer's up card (which varies from 2 to ace) for each calculation. I used your example except for the composition.

cdca is optimal whereas tdca is not. cdca can compute overall EV using best play whereas tdca computes overall EV using total dependent basic strategy. cdca can compute optimal EV for playing an individual hand. tdca can vary the total dependent strategy for an individual hand. For example tdca can answer the question, "Is it better to stand on 15, 16, or 17 on a given hand at a given shoe comp?" (tdca defaults to 17 because that's basic strategy, but it can be changed for an individual hand.) Really the only difference between cdca and tdca for this average comp example is that cdca gives an ever so sleightly better EV for splitting.

I did a minor update to cdca's display. The display now automatically clears when a hand, rules, or comp change and I took care of what I felt were some minor inconsistencies in strategy enumeration. The strategies (stand, hit, double, split, surrender) were all correct but the background colors which were supposed to be red for negative EV and black for positive EV may have been wrong. Also when the option to compute using full shoe comp dependent strategy is chosen and the full shoe strategy is different from the optimal strategy then an asterisk is supposed to be appended to the strategy (hit*, for example.) Asterisks were erroneously being appended in some cases.

You may want to download an install the update.
But -4 is a relatively low index. What about "lets say" -8, where this becomes much less of a specific case. Would it make that much of a difference? It seems to me, it would at least become +EV at some point, the more negative the count became, with normal distribution.
 
Last edited:

N&B

Well-Known Member
Interesting and yet accurate. I look at it as what it is... a non standard distribution of the remaining deck. Consider that you just opened the door to hyper-efficient counting, wherein the deck-composition supercedes the index. And I'll leave it at that.
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
N&B said:
Interesting and yet accurate. I look at it as what it is... a non standard distribution of the remaining deck. Consider that you just opened the door to hyper-efficient counting, wherein the deck-composition supercedes the index. And I'll leave it at that.
Heres an interesting grapg N&B.

With these cards removed from a 2D pack(equal to +4 RC,w/Zen) Hitting 17vs8 is a better option than standing, with virtually an average distrubution of cards.

This is exactly why this guy hits 16vs6 in this clip
 

Attachments

Last edited:

N&B

Well-Known Member
Yes, an interesting grape. I prefer P 33 or 22 vs. 8, or the occasional P 99 vs Ace in a S17 shoe as my dumb play.
 
Top