Spread To Play An Even Game?

C

CD3

Member
This might be a ridiculous question, so feel free to give me a hard time if it's deserved. :)

I like to play blackjack on vacations. I view it as entertainment, but it might be fun to count a bit. At the limited time I put in, I know it's probably all variance. :laugh:

If I used a level one count (does this even matter on single deck?), how large of a spread would be necessary to reduce the EV to neutral or slightly positive?
Is 1-3 enough?

Let's pretend we're playing SD, DOA, decent number of rounds (7?) heads up.
$10-25 minimum. Play all hands.
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
You haven't provided enough information about the game to make the determination for the requisite spread to eliminate the house egde.

Keep in mind that a game with EV=0 has a certainty equivalent (CE)<0.

I am assuming that you want to play a neutral game because you are afraid of getting backed off or 86'd. However, if the house notices over a long period of time that rather than losing money you are still breaking even, they will know something is wrong. Casino personnel aren't savvy enough to recognize that your spread is benign after they have already determined that you are spreading in correlation to the count. Unless the place has a reputation for tolerating low-stakes counters--which would probably allow you to spread for profit, rather than break-even--they are going to show you the door once they realize you are counting, regardless of whether or not your spread is a big winner, because they aren't smart enough to calculate the EV anyways.

Play to win. If you find the dull game of BJ fun, you'll probably find that it is even funner to play the game of cat and mouse with casino personnel.

Spaw
 
C

CD3

Member
Thanks for the advice, Southpaw.

For some reason, I do find it fun to sit at the table for a couple hours, chat with my friends and the dealer, and relax.

I don't think I'd ever be a guy who could put in the casino hours to make any real money.

And you're dead on about the spread question. I don't really want any casino drama from getting back offed.
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
With those rules and good penetration; if the dealer stands on soft 17, flat betting with proper index plays will ALMOST get you there; a 2:1 spread will actually yield a tiny profit margin. If the dealer HITS soft 17, a 2:1 spread will still be enough to break even.

Also; if you plan on playing SD, and because you do not wish to spread any more than you have to, use a count that does NOT employ ace-reckoning (Keep a side-count of aces if you wish). This is because you'll want to get as much value for your index plays as possible.
 
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Friendo

Friendo

Well-Known Member
Don't play an even game

If you try to play an even or slightly-positive game by spreading, your chances of being behind by a substantial amount are ... well ... substantial. The problem is that spreading for a tiny or zero edge makes it harder to overcome short-term variance through long-term EV. A low EV relative to bet size is nearly a pure-variance situation for hundreds of hours.

If you're there for fun, just flat-bet as little as possible. If possible, you could also spread $1-$10, but you would have to play a hell of a long time to enjoy a high probability of breaking even.
 
N

NightStalker

Well-Known Member
1-2

cd3 said:
this might be a ridiculous question, so feel free to give me a hard time if it's deserved. :)

i like to play blackjack on vacations. I view it as entertainment, but it might be fun to count a bit. At the limited time i put in, i know it's probably all variance. :laugh:

If i used a level one count (does this even matter on single deck?), how large of a spread would be necessary to reduce the ev to neutral or slightly positive?
Is 1-3 enough?

Let's pretend we're playing sd, doa, decent number of rounds (7?) heads up.
$10-25 minimum. Play all hands.
Click to expand...
>0
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
CD3 said:
This might be a ridiculous question, so feel free to give me a hard time if it's deserved. :)

I like to play blackjack on vacations. I view it as entertainment, but it might be fun to count a bit. At the limited time I put in, I know it's probably all variance. :laugh:

If I used a level one count (does this even matter on single deck?), how large of a spread would be necessary to reduce the EV to neutral or slightly positive?
Is 1-3 enough?

Let's pretend we're playing SD, DOA, decent number of rounds (7?) heads up.
$10-25 minimum. Play all hands.
Click to expand...
A SD DOA game with RO7 can be beaten to a degree with no spread at all. A 1-3 spread will give you a significant profit.
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
Considering the fact that you are scared to get backed off, you might be better going to play a shoe game with a 1-12 spread (for profit) because I think you might actually get less heat that way than if you were to spread 1-2 on a SD game with the rules you have specified.

Spaw
 
I

irobinson

Well-Known Member
Southpaw said:
Considering the fact that you are scared to get backed off, you might be better going to play a shoe game with a 1-12 spread (for profit) because I think you might actually get less heat that way than if you were to spread 1-2 on a SD game with the rules you have specified.

Spaw
Click to expand...
If I knew I wasn't coming back for a long time I would milk it until I got booted.
 
C

CD3

Member
Automatic Monkey said:
A SD DOA game with RO7 can be beaten to a degree with no spread at all. A 1-3 spread will give you a significant profit.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Now the trick is just finding one next time I'm traveling!


Southpaw said:
Considering the fact that you are scared to get backed off, you might be better going to play a shoe game with a 1-12 spread (for profit) because I think you might actually get less heat that way than if you were to spread 1-2 on a SD game with the rules you have specified.
Spaw
Click to expand...
Interesting thoughts. I might be totally underestimating how much bet changes in correlation with the count will be scrutinized at any good SD or DD games.

I've always figured (probably incorrectly) that a $10-120 spread on 6D would be easy for anyone to spot. That seems like a pretty wide and obvious ramp to me.

Whereas if I sit down at a SD game and just vary between $25-50, I could just be a guy who likes to change it up a bit at times. Probably wishful thinking? :confused:

irobinson said:
If I knew I wasn't coming back for a long time I would milk it until I got booted.
Click to expand...
This sounds like the best financial move. It would probably give me some extra sight seeing time too, if I kept the table time short and sweet. :laugh:

Richard Munchkin said:
I doubt any of them will tolerate a 1-3 spread in green for very long.
Click to expand...
So let's say I'm using KO on SD with an IRC of -1.
Is this the proper ramp: (1 unit at RC<=1; 2 units at RC=2, 3 units at RC=3)?
 
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B

blackjacktilt

Well-Known Member
Southpaw said:
Play to win. If you find the dull game of BJ fun, you'll probably find that it is even funner to play the game of cat and mouse with casino personnel.

Spaw
Click to expand...
Cat n mouse is alot more fun.
My opinion, if you want to play for fun, play for fun. If you want to play to beat the game, you need a bigger spread, good game selection and hit and run tactics. Wong out when the count tanks. Look for good pen, and have the bankroll. If what you have is what you have, 1-7 spread, but like Southpaw stated, you need to be playing a good game.
No 6:5, make sure you can split 3 times, double on any, LS etc.
 
C

CD3

Member
blackjacktilt said:
If what you have is what you have, 1-7 spread.
Click to expand...
I'm confused. How many decks are you thinking?

Are there actually places that'd allow $25-175 on SD for short periods of time?
 
C

CD3

Member
blackjacktilt said:
No, I'm talking hit and run.
Click to expand...
You can be vague if this is sensitive info, but how does that work?

I thought a lot of places don't allow entry between shuffles (to prevent back counting).

Do I just flat bet 1 unit until a strong + count, get a couple really big bets down (7 units), and then split?
 
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